Favourites Statistics – National Hunt (Part 1)
As promised, I have analysed the fate of favourites at all courses over the past 3 seasons. You should use these statistics in your lay betting, because the courses range immensely. I know of one ebook/manual that contains similar stats, and that is False Favourites.
As with all statistics, you need something to gauge the individual courses against – we will use the overall statistics, which would be all of the races. What we are looking for, to lay, are the criteria where the strike rate is well below the norm (highlighted). I have copied below, the overall figures and the first few courses:
| ALL | HURDLES (ALL) | 5516 | 1838 | 33.32 | - 551.27 |
| HANDICAP HURDLES | 2622 | 624 | 23.80 | - 381.21 | |
| CHASES (ALL) | 4366 | 1394 | 31.93 | - 379.47 | |
| HANDICAP CHASES | 3775 | 713 | 25.69 | - 264.79 | |
| NHF | 809 | 269 | 33.25 | - 71.32 | |
| ASCOT | HURDLES (ALL) | 79 | 26 | 32.91 | - 9.78 |
| NOVICE HURDLES | 33 | 14 | 42.42 | - 2.22 | |
| HANDICAP HURDLES | 32 | 6 | 18.75 | - 8.50 | |
| CHASES (ALL)` | 70 | 23 | 32.86 | - 10.31 | |
| NOVICE CHASES | 17 | 3 | 17.65 | - 12.91 | |
| HANDICAP CHASES | 39 | 10 | 35.64 | - 3.88 | |
| NHF | 13 | 5 | 38.46 | 2.85 | |
| AYR | HURDLES (ALL) | 112 | 36 | 32.14 | - 14.23 |
| NOVICE HURDLES | 45 | 20 | 45.45 | - 1.64 | |
| HANDICAP HURDLES | 71 | 17 | 23.94 | - 13.39 | |
| CHASES (ALL) | 96 | 34 | 35.42 | - 4.09 | |
| HANDICAP CHASES | 66 | 20 | 30.30 | - 3.17 | |
| NHF | 17 | 5 | 29.41 | - 7.73 | |
| BANGOR | HURDLES (ALL) | 155 | 49 | 31.61 | - 28.69 |
| HANDICAP HURDLES | 77 | 16 | 20.78 | - 19.88 | |
| CHASES (ALL) | 123 | 38 | 30.89 | - 14.48 | |
| HANDICAP CHASES | 75 | 20 | 26.67 | - 7.27 | |
| NHF | 21 | 8 | 38.46 | 3.08 | |
| CARLISLE | HURDLES (ALL) | 49 | 9 | 18.37 | - 21.52 |
| HANDICAP HURDLES | 31 | 3 | 9.68 | - 18.25 | |
| CHASES (ALL) | 138 | 45 | 32.61 | - 0.11 | |
| HANDICAP CHASES | 87 | 25 | 28.74 | 10.33 | |
| NHF | 10 | 4 | 40.00 | 1.88 | |
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Comments on Favourites Statistics – National Hunt (Part 1)
Derek Lawrence @ 5:49 am
Hi,
That’s a really interesting article-I was wondering if you could point me in the right direction of the continuation of that table for all the race courses? It’s not set out as clearly as that in my version of False Favourites-or is it in the new version?
Whatever, if you could help, I’d be very grateful……
Thanks Derek