The Reality Of Laying Horses On Betfair

@Alison Cloonan: If you only want to make about £30 a day then use All By The Book as it works.

@Alison Cloonan:
After years of loosing at backing i thought i would start laying and joined several lay tipster lines which all lost. i then stumbled across one that requires a lot of patience, they only send the tip 2-5 minutes before the off so you can imagine it is a pain waiting for something that sometimes does not come!!(sometimes only 1 a day) the system works well and shows a good steady profit and has now disciplined my self not to throw money away on gambling as i now get a steady but small income (my starting bank was small) from this.
The owner suggests that tipster services that give their selections out in the morning are missing out on so much of the information required to complete the jigsaw of the race. Pre paddock/paddock/going down ok/ on course betting etc etc and i agree (well now i do anyway!!)
I hope you all can find the right system for yourselves as once you do it really can change things around, i really dont like ‘betting’ now when i dont have any good information.
Anyway good luck and happy laying.

ps a bot can help take away the immotional part of laying/tilting however it is not something i use now.

@Michael: I have been trying to lay horses for 2 years now and fed up off building a pot and then losing it all on an outsider. Ive tried dutching, hedging and always seem to lose long term. Just want to make £30 a day to pay of my morgage.
I would be so greatful if you could send me a winning formula or some advise

@Robert:
In principle this sounds a good system. but only if all the bets get matched, if not you will be facing a loss. You can put them on unmatched but to get them all matched is virtually impossible.
I would be interested if you have any ideas on how you can be quick enough or a formula to get these bets matched in running.

Hi, in order to make money laying horses, this may not come as a surprise: you actually need to put in the work to calculate each horses chance and then compare the market price with your estimation and only lay horses that are at least 25% lower than your target price. did I say work? Yes, to price a race up usually takes me 15-20 minutes. That means at least 2-3 hours just to get by the 2 best cards on the day. Class 1-Class 4 races should only be the avenue to go down, as the form can be counted on. Lower grades and AW in particular, just do not show any consisency whatsoever. I’ve tried every approach in the book last 10 years, and mark my words: There are ZERO “systems” that you magically in 10 seconds can find a lay from and expect the cash to roll in. You need a thorough understanding of the form. Read as many book as you can on the subject, and pay close attention to the handicapper. Jockeys form and trainers form are overrated factors. May the form-force be with you

@Michael:
I need a laying system that actually has consistent profit no matter how small of a margin, i seem to be going well for a while on betfair and then a loose just sets me back to the beginning again and it takes a while to get back on track. any suggestions appreciated thanks

@colin whitehead: LOL! Couldn’t stop laughing about your flying pink pig. Are you sure it was a pig? Because the ears look bigger than that, it might have been an Alpaca. Looks like an alpaca, smells like an alpaca, talks like an alpaca, even walks like an alpaca. Yup, it’s an alpaca. Now, after reading Master Michael’s talk of “10 million” lays in five years, work that out for yourself, that’s 5,500 lays a ***ing day for five years! Absolute rubbish.

@craig:

The lay bets are done on betfair Craig so as such there is no paper ticket, just the entry in the account and transaction deals for the betfair account. I’m not really sure what you mean though.

Does anyone have an old ticket for a lay bet so one can wee what they look like? thanks!

@paul vincent:

Hi Val – I do have your problem of laying level stakes at SP solved as per our earlier exchange – however, you seem to have disappeared. Get in touch if you are still interested.

Ian

@val:

Hi Val.

Place market 1-2-3′s. Any warmer?

@IanF:

Hi Ian,

I don’t disagree with anything your saying but my presumption was that we are not talking about 100-1+ shots here. My view is that you lay such prices at your peril. Whilst the vast majority of outsiders will lose I’m not sure how anyone can prove statistically you would make money and therefore say it is profitable long-term. You would need such an extreme sample size e.g. 10 yrs worth of results at least I’d recommend as even a handful of winners would decimate one years worth of results.

I have not had much involvement with laying tipsters nor seen too many successful ones so would be interested in your views who you rate.

Insp Howard.

Hi

I like the sound of you email

i am a small time layer but to be honest i seem to get my head in front and then slip back to where i started
could you give me a idea of what you are doing to make contiued profit

Kind regards Mac

@Insp Howard:
Hi Insp Howard,
You say that Val should not experience any problem getting a stake of £25 layed at roughly Betfair SP soon before the off.

I think it depends very much on the race and the horse. Indeed there should be no problem getting a £25 stake layed, but if you are laying a real 200/1 no-hoper in an obscure race then i very much doubt you will get matched at a decent price. Though it may be at or near BFSP, but only because you have moved the market with your bet!

By the way, there are several good laying tipsters out there who don’t tip at huge odds.

Just my point of view,
Ian

@Ian:

Hi Ian,

She would have no trouble getting matched on the stakes she is working with currently. Also she could set the bet to go up a few seconds before the off time which will get her as close as possible to the SP whilst ensuring being matched. She may even find she beats SP price with this method as a lot of bots try to lay horses seconds before the off and push prices up.

HELLO,can you please explain more simply how to use your system as you can see i,am a [NOVICE-lol-] MANY THANKS

yes but that doesn’t work as what Val is saying is that there is very little money in the pot for a live bet. That’s why it has to be at SP because it will be underwritten and 100% get matched. I did telephone Betfair and asked how they did this because if it was truly a betting exchange then whose money was guaranteeing the SP. The answer was that Betfair move money around from other operations to cover the SP bets. I did ask if it was the gaming rooms and they guy said he couldn’t be sure but thought that it might be some sort of cross subsidy.

Anyone who has a winning formula is free to publish it on here so long as it is not a pirated system. Unfortunately we cannot allow private email interchanges of systems for the above reason.

@val:

Val,

You can do this using Racing Traders Evo. It is free to download when not used in turbo which would be fine for what you require. You can use the lay tool to place a bet at a specific time (so could set for a few seconds before or after off in this case) for a fixed stake or liability. There is a manual how to do this on site it. If you wish to contact me regarding this you can email me on:
howard.john@blueyonder.co.uk

I’ll be unable to answer for a few days but will get back to you soon.

@Michael: Please tell me more as I am disciplined.

@Ian:
Hi Ian
When you say you know how to do Betfair SP lays what exactly do you mean? I cant get Betfair to accept a straight £10 lay bet at SP so have to do maximum odds and maximum liability which seldom equates to a straight £10 lay. If you can solve this problem I will happily let you have my successful selection method sent to your email address.

@Michael: Could you please forward me a system I could try for laying,I am very disiplined when it comes to betting or laying.
Thanks Robert

@Robert: COULD YOU SEND ME NORE DETAILS PLEASE:THE 100/2,100/3 & 100/4 SEEMS TO WORK FINE.
HOW ABOUT ANY OTHER PRICES I CANT GET THEM TO SHOW A PROFIT.

Thanks Robert

@lostalot:

$1

I have a simple question that I cant seem to find the answer to ANYWHERE online. If I make 1 lay of $1 at 2.0. What do I win? Thanks

Hi Val, I was under the impression that from your original post that your selections were based on profitable lays. I didn’t realise that you did your own selections. I understand how to do the SP lays so if you can point me in the right direction about selections that would be great for me and help me out a lot.

@Ian:
Hi Ian
I am not using the Profitable Lays method but my own method that I devised when looking to see why Betfair won’t accept a fixed lay stake. However the Profitable Lay system does produce profits but can’t be used as its vendor suggests.

Thanks Val. Have you made any modifications to the original profitable lays system that you bought other than staking 5 mins before the off?

Ian

@Ian:
Hi Ian
Yes am now £1080 up using £10 stakes. One needs to be at your computer for 5 minutes before each race.

@val:

How is going Val, still holding up?

Am I right in thinking to do this your way would involve a quick manual calculation just before the off and that you would have to be at your computer?

Ian

@val:

“certain Horses” thats the bit i am having trouble with. Any more clues please Val?

Anyone seen Michael?

There is a laying method I purchased called Profitable Lays. Unfortunately the instructions given by the seller can not be followed as he says you should lay certain horses at Betfair SP for a fixed amount of £25 each time. He claims excellent profits but actually Betfair will not accept bets of this type. So the only way to try and follow the system is to place your lay bets just before the off but often there is not enough lay money available to get £25 laid. The system does produce profits but I wondered why Betfair did not allow such bets and came up with the answer that they did not want to accept such bets as they were not profitable to Betfair.

So working on this premise I looked for a way of using this fact to take profits from Betfair. If Betfair don’t like it it must be sensible to investigate how I could use this fact to my advantage. I eventually came up with an idea which I have operated for the last 4 weeks. I am aware that 4 weeks is not long enough to really test a method but laying using just a £10 stake my profit to date is nearly £600.

This without using any staking plan just level stakes. Using £50 stakes would have produced a monthly profit of £3000 and I intend increasing my stakes as the profits accummulate. I am not about to reveal my method but perhaps I have given enough clues for you to work out for your selves what I am hinting at.

@TotalNewbie:

I’ve contacted Kevin to see if we can do a review of his service.

Hi,
I just did a trial run with Kevin Curry. Being totally new to this I made quite a few errors over the ten days free trial he offers but feel that he has a good system going on. All but one of his first choice races “lost”. His records (from February this year)show a few losses but he recovered them in at the most 3 more bets(once and the rest were in two).
He makes a fair living from doing this and once I get over Christmas I intend to join him.He doesn’t make wild claims but says every once in a while (5 to 6 months) you have a losing run – get over it and use the recovery system.

@Michael:
It’s a funny thing you know a giant pink pig has just flown past my window

@Michael: PLEASE TELL ME ONE WINNING LAYING METHOD SO I CAN GET STARTED.I AM VERY DISIPLINED.

@Robert: That wont work because if one of those 3 win you wont take the stake for the winning horse.

@Robert: hi robert can you send a few more details what about your liaibilty on betfair if you lay all 3 its going to be more than £100 any help i would be thankful thanks stew

Pick 3 horses out of a race with 12 or more runners. Lay to the value of £100 payout per race. Example dependant on your bank roll.
Say you lay a 2/1 3/1 4/1 divide them into 100

This is how bookies set there odds.

i.e
100/2 = 50 Take a bet of £50
100/3 = 33 Take a bet of £33
100/4 = 25 Take a bet of £25

Total taken is £108 to pay out £100.

You have made a profit of £8 regardless of any one of the above winning as this will only result in a £100 payout.

If none of the above win you trouser the full £100.

Insightful read Michael.
A set formula combined with discipline would appear to be the way forward.
Any pointers in the right direction would be greatly appreciated.
Thank you.
Paul vincent

Come on Michael, DON’T be a spoiled sport mate!! supply more info ….comment-15961″>Michael:

Laying is the only way to make money!
I have tried many things on betfair and after 5 years, and over 10 million lays I have finally come up with the winning formula, with the maximum 60% commission rate a huge advantage..
I do not believe that you shoud lay 4 4-1s ina row to win your original stake, this is just a system that will go wrong and will wipe you out!
You just need to be disciplined in your approach. I lost £8000 over a few year’s although I have traded millions over this time! I finally started sticking to my plans March 2010 and broke even for a few months! The penny dropped last August and now I am making £10,000 average a month and over a week always +£2000 ever since this month!… I obviously can not tell you the method to my success but just wanted to help by saying you can make money! All I do is lay, I am up £110K on horses to date and football is solid but mainly used to keep up with the 60% commission rate as the 15% decay is a pain. I am happy to tell you one winning formula on the condition you are disciplined Good luck

Very informative thread which really has hit the nail on the head through personal experience I know this game can destroy you , I for the past few months have been following this guy on twitter- Betfairplayer2 made some serious money following this guy and all for free until now. He dose these amazing write ups for each of his selections which are very informative, Few months back he gave 26 selections of which 24 were correct ( all under 4-1) I thought the guy was nuts when he twitted he was going to give 26 selections in one day!!.

hi
I must say its really educational reading these blog post having been only a small £2. layer on races having at least 12 horses in them I was inpresed with Mr Andy Crawford you dont offer Betfair trading lessons do you because if you do I am interested
regards peter mcgrath

@john:

Hi John,

Essentially you are correct. It is highly unlikely that if on Paddy Power it is 5.00 or on betfair at 6.2 that it will go down to 3.5 before the off.

However, there is a guaranteed way of winning by laying but only if luck goes on your side and you are disciplined. If you back a horse at 6/1 and the lay price goes below that at ANY stage you can lay it to ensure a profit regardless of the outcome of the race. However, if it goes the other way and the horse remains at 6/1 or goes out further than that then you will just be relying on the good old gamble.

Laying or backing as a sole bet is gambling, but if you do a combination it is more hedging etc. What makes Betfair unique is not just the ability to be a bookie as the article suggests but the fact that it allows you to buy and then sell bets (bookies do this as well to offset losses etc)

Not sure if I am being thick here…….
I have decided to lay horse “A”
If horse “A” back odds are 5.00 on Paddy Power(PP) it will usually be more on Bet Fair, i.e. 6.00. To lay the same horse will be higher still. i.e. 6.2 If I put in a lay price of 3.50 (70% of the PP price) prior to the off and not going in play, then surely there will never be a matched bet? If, by a miracle, I am able to get a lay price at 3.50. surely the horse has drifted in price the wrong way and it is now a massive and clear, clear favourite and probably best avoided as a lay bet?
Is there a time specified to get the PP price?@Gaspard:

Fantastic article. I was bitten by the ‘laying’ bug following realisation that very large wins playing online roulette were pure luck and that I should quit whilst ahead in January – despite having what I saw as a system. The pain of placing £2000 on one spin of a wheel in Latvia literally makes you throw up, but when you are chasing a loss you had to.

I am interested in the almost ‘martingale’ approach above on laying when the first selection loses you increase to compensate. Although even in that 4 selection example you can see why you need to have an astronomical balance (which I don’t have) to return to profit after 3 losses.

I have bought three systems up to now, the first which is probably deemed the best is False Favourites although I have failed to get to the end of the book, combination of heavy reading and impatience (ironically covered by the author). I am determined to get through it as I am sure its the key to more informed choices. Covering things I never dreamt of such as camber.

Working full time I have looked at ‘bots’ you leave running, these too are dangerous and often I got home to find my cupboards were empty.

My experience is that with all the systems out there, it can be very confusing. I have been lucky that I have staked £26k (not at once, cumulative over six months, sounds more than it maybe is but I track what I do daily) but only lost to date £560. Trying to see that as a win.

I cancelled one of my lay subscriptions this week as it has too many “1st” finishers. Another that is promoted on this page is far more productive – but is cyclical. Streaks of a few wins followed by losses that always remove your balance.

I do believe that a second income can be gained from laying, am literally treating my time ‘laying’ as being like a game of snakes and ladders. Following a big loss, I am trying to curb the temptation to throw money on something I don’t understand just to climb the ladder again.

Anyway – money already laid out for the day – so back to work. Great article and some cool ideas from it and indeed the people who replied.

Good luck guys.

Julian

I just lay horses 3/1 or under in competitive handicaps. literally any horse can win in a handicap so why not lay the shortish fav

I have just today made a profit of £867 with a starting bank of £5000.The way to operate as safely as possible are as follows.
1.Only lay one horse in any race
2.Only lay a drifting horse in the betting
3.Should a horse drift after laying by more than a half a point or so before the off, i.e you lay£50 at 2.5 and drifts to 3 bet the same horse for £42.You will then make £8 with no risk less the betfair 5% commission.

Generally this will work and if it doesnt drift then ride the bet.

Good Luck

dont be fooled by anyone telling u cant make money laying thats because they are probably a layer, the best way to make money laying is lay every fav and 2nd fav in the place markets the odds are alot more tollerible than just straigt laying, usually between 1.1 and 2 hope this peace of info helps some people top up there bank.

@Gaspard:

can you tell me some more i want to try your method

@Gaspard

There is still a big difference that, most of the time, real bookmakers are getting much more bets at lower odds on different horses in a race from their clients, while you could get very few punters backing at your odds on only one or two horses on Betfair.

In that case, you are unable to balance your book to minimize your risk, while bookmakers can do. That’s why most normal punters can’t make steady profit by laying on Betfair.

@lostalot:

totaly agree a man ;
this article is good and needs more replies.

Laying horses on Betfair is a seriously dangerous business now matter how disciplined and well informed you are. I tried it for a few months and have to agree with the article. It is freakish and soul destroying to see how many times your daily profit and more can be wiped out by a “no hoper” at the end of the day. To all those considering this strategy, please be very, very careful. This is a very dangerous game.

This article is good. The fact is that the ONLY CHANCE to win money laying horses in betfair is to lay at “bookmaker odds – 30%” before race want in-play.
It is to say that you must :
- find bookmakers odds (paddy power or willhill) ;
- then just calculate “book odds – 30%” ;
- place all yours lays in each races at nearly “13h00 cet” at odds “bookmaker – 30%” ;
- chose “cancel if unmatched when market turns in play”.

This method is to try but i’m pretty sure you can win money doing this as you play the role of the bookmaker.

Of course there are going to be losing runs and of course Betfair SP is better than on course SP. But you do not have to pay staff, pay turnover tax, you can select which races you bet on and you can develop some disciplines to prevent getting further into deficit.

Don Scott in Australia stated that you only bet when the odds on offer are better than the rated odds and that you have a bank that is 20 times the amount of STANDARD bets and never use the catch up method of betting but be prepared if you are laying horses to accept small rewards per day rather than hoping for a BIG run of beaten horses.

i lay races every day, to sum up i lost a lot. laying 4 timers – i tried already, end up a big lost. i think … i need another sugguestion

I am interesting in horse race. Can anyone give me some useful tips regarding this?