Thursday, Apr. 24, 2014

Follow The Money – Read The Bookies Minds

Articles TutorialsFollow the money – and read the bookies’ minds

Let me ask you a few questions – ok?

What if I told you there was a tipster out there with the ability to pick double figure priced and placed horses time after time?

What if I told you he has THE BEST connections and insider knowledge in the business?

What if I told you he charges nothing, nowt, zilch, zero?

Would you be interested – sure you would!

And just who is this tipster? – well have you figured it out yet? (enough with the questions – The ED!)

Yes it’s your old enemy THE BOOKIE!

Incredible but true – if you can break the code, you can get access to the bookies’ thoughts while other punters remain oblivious!

So how is this done? – Well we use another free source – the Racing Post betting forecaster!

One thing that became immediately noticeable to this seasoned punter’s eyes was how close the Racing Post’s betting forecast was to the live bookmaker’s market. He doesn’t get it right all the time, but generally he is pretty much spot on.

Remember here that the betting forecast in the Racing Post is wholly independent of the bookmaker’s prices.

It is this accuracy in pricing by the betting forecast that we can exploit to uncover those stable gambles the bookie wants to keep quiet.

So how do we do it?

Follow these simple steps.

Look at the betting forecast in the Racing Post

It is found at the base of the Race Card

Now compare the Racing Post betting forecast above with the bookmaker’s prices.

Make a note of all horses whose odds in the live betting market are shorter than the odds from the Racing Post betting forecaster – the bigger the difference the stronger the bet.

Ideally there should be no non-runners, as their odds will skew the betting forecaster because he would have priced up the market differently if he had known about the non-runners.

So can you tell me which horses are potential qualifiers in this race?

If you’re a quick learner you’ll have spotted to following

Jades double 14/1 in the betting forecast into 5/1 in the live market

Darizan 16/1 in the betting forecast into 10/1 in the live market

Massini sunset 200/1 in the betting forecast into 66/1 in the live market

Celtic society 150/1in the betting forecast into 50/1 in the live market

Thenford duke 33/1 in the betting forecast into 25/1 in the live market

Buster mac 33/1 in the betting forecast into 22/1 in the live market

Let’s look at each qualifier in turn.

Jades double is an easy qualifier – the horse has halved in price and is near the head of the market – clear and straight forward

Darizan is also a qualifier into 10/1

Massini sunset is still 66/1 in the live betting market. Ideal qualifying horses will be 16/1 in price or lower.

The above applies to Celtic society, thenfords duke and buster mac.

TOP TIP – If any horse is 33/1 (or bigger in the betting forecast) and opens up at a shorter price in the live market, we want, ideally, to see these horses prices touch 16/1 or lower before betting on them. In the above race, if thenford duke and buster mac’s odds had touched 20/1 then dropped to 16/1 or lower, they would have been very definite bets.

So let’s look at the result

In this race we would have bet Jade’s double and darizan. Jade’s double wins.

As an aside, take a look at the running of Massini’s sunset, one of the bigger priced highlighted horses. He finished 5th at 66/1, and touched 4 in running on betfair

Let’s take a look at another example

We have a non-runner here in Moment of Madness at 12/1 in the betting forecast – this will not adversely affect market comparison

TOP TIP – the shorter the price of any non-runner, the less accurate the price comparison will be. If there is one non-runner at 12/1 or bigger in the betting forecast, we can go ahead with a bet if there is a qualifier, especially if that qualifier is near the head of the betting market.

By comparing the betting forecast to the live price market in the above real life example, which horses did you come up with?

Whereareyounow and Parish Oak I hope.

Whereareyounow is 8/1 in the betting forecast and opens up at 4/1 in the live market.

Parish Oak is 40/1 in the betting forecast and opens up at 25/1 in the live market.

Remembering our rule from earlier, we would like to see Parish Oak’s odds reduce to 16/1 before contemplating a bet.

So in this race, it’s Whereareyounow.

I hope from these 2 examples that you can get a grasp of the system in this short article. The ideal way to use the system is as something you can check whilst going through your usual day’s betting activity.

Here are some pointers to making the system even more successful

Look for the most obvious price discrepancies. The ideal candidate will be a horse whose price in the live market is half, or less, the price in the betting forecast (see whereareyounow)

The ideal bet to use here is the each way bet, or for betfair users, the place only market and the win only markets. If we are backing selections at 16/1 then it would be wise to bet each way because oftentimes, especially on betfair, if the horse is placed, this can be the equivalent of a 5/1 winner! Watch out for steamers! These are horses whose price does differ from its betting forecast price but it’s there for all to see. What we cant to see is the following scenario. Horse A is priced 33/1 in the racing post’s betting forecast. The live market prices have arrived. Horse A opens up at 16/1 and then drops to 14/1. This is a perfect bet. The other punters just see the 16/1 and think nothing of it. We have compared prices and seen perhaps that we have a sneaky stable gamble and bookies looking to shorten prices.

If there are 2-3 candidates consider a no bet. Ideally we want one or 2 standout candidate s without any non-runners. IF there are a number of horses in the live market whose prices differ to their betting forecast price, it could be the case that the betting forecaster has simply read the race wrong.

Use betfair to really skyrocket your prices. Using the example of a horse qualifying at 16/1, oftentimes you will get huge prices on Betfair. BE wary of market movers in big fields. If you want to bet potential market movers in, say 16 runner races or above, the price discrepancy should be prominent, – ideally the betting forecast price should have halved or greater.

Consider betting only on horses whoa re in the first 3 in the betting and have qualified as market movers.

Conversely, for those of you who want the potential of greater returns, consider betting only on those horses who were quoted 20/1 or higher in the betting forecast and have reduced in price in the live betting market
There are other ways to uncover huge priced winners without any form analysis using just the betfair price market – infact one system I have produced 4 20/1 and bigger winners in 3 weeks – all will be revealed in later articles.

Try out this new insight into our good old buddies the bookies – paper trade until you’re confident and it becomes second nature as it has with me. Why even last week, (3rd August) there was I minding my own business waiting for the prices to come up for the 350 Ripon, when I did my usual price comparison between the betting forecast and the live market, and noted Ahlawy was 12/1 in the betting forecast and opened up at 4/1 in the live market. All of the other punters were being drawn in by the “money” for the favourite Northern Jem who was being backed into 7/4 favouritism.

I strolled to my friendly bookie and handed over a £15 each way betting slip, all the while watching as people were falling over themselves to latch on this “gamble” on Northern Jem.

Result?

and where was Northern Jem? I think he’s still running!