System 11
This is a system that I use from time to time and it has proven very profitable over the years and is still doing so today. It is based in the HT/FT market, where you have to predict the outcome at half-time and at full-time. Obviously the odds are so much better than they are for just predicting the winner. It is simple to use and very effective. It will only take 10 minutes of your time to identify the games.
1. On a weekend/midweek I look through the long list of fixtures to find games where both sides are evenly matched by odds. By this I mean they must both be within the range of 13/10 – 7/4.
2 In a full weekend programme you should be able to find at least 10 of these. Now you need to work in multiples of 5, you will see why shortly, so you need 5, 10 or 15 games.
3 Now the first part of the puzzle is to come up with the result at half-time and this is easy because we are going to say it will be a draw at half-time. The teams are evenly matched, so there is every chance of a draw at half-time. (I used this system last weekend and out of 10 matches, 6 of them were draws at half-time).
4. The second part of the puzzle is to predict the final outcome. I have a set procedure for this because I always pick the home win, (45% of all English League matches end in a home win). You may wish to pick away wins but I generally think that it is safer to go with the home win. So my forecast is Draw/Home Win. Now for this type of evenly matched game you will get odds between 5/1 – 6/1 for this scenario, whereas you only get about 6/4 for just predicting a home win.
They then, are the simple rules for this system but we will look at the maths and why we work in multiples of 5.
For this type of evenly matched game you would get odds of around even money for predicting a Draw at half-time. Now we know that 45% of English games are won by the home side, so this would be a shade of odds against. If you put those two together you should be getting around 3/1 or just over for the Draw/Home Win prediction but in fact you are getting 5/1 – 6/1, the odds are definitely in your favour.
The reason we need to work in multiples of 5 games is straightforward. Say you picked out 5 games that fitted the criteria and you got odds of 5/1 for each of the Draw/Home Win predictions, then you would only need 1 match to come out right to make a profit of 20% ROI. If you picked 6 games and only 1 came out right you would only break even, that is why we work in multiples of 5. So say you found 10 matches, then you would need 2 of them to come out right to maintain a 20% ROI. Actually last weekend I found 10 games and just 2 of them came out with a Draw/Home win scenario but because I got odds of 6/1 and 11/2 for the two, I made a profit of 3.5 points and 35%ROI. Fantastic.
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Comments on System 11
99reds @ 8:21 pm
You are so right Kuchiki, there are plenty of stat based angles from which you can attack the market. It is just a case of having the time to find them but once you have it is all worthwhile because you have found them yourself and that makes it even better.
Kuchiki @ 5:01 pm
Oh, but i’m talking about only the evenly matches games, that’s why the lay is almost always between 15 to 18 (decimal odds), it gives us a fixed odd to produce some statistics… And most of the 0-2 games were won by stronger teams like Chelsea with Wolverhampton a few days ago, so it makes sense that the 0-2 is more difficult to achieve in these kind of games…
Although I don’t think the actual profit keeps it up, it’s still a great market to dwell in, 130/3 gives 2.3%, way below the 4.9 shown in SoccerStats and even more below than 5.7% to make some profit (1/17.5 <- laying the top frontier)
There's plenty of oddities in my stats, but I believe most of them will stabilize with time… oh and since you don't like backing the draw, how about this: in the 50 english games I tested, there were not a single one with an Away-Draw outcome… profit: 100% ahahah
So these stats began with your idea of evenly matched odds… it really is a great market to explore ^___^
99reds @ 8:45 am
Absolutely, the draw in league games is a totally random event, it could happen at any time at any place but is difficult to predict. When it comes to big tournaments it does become more predictable. The first games are notorious for draws as no team wants to start out with a defeat. The second and third games tend to produce results because the teams are in need of a victory to go through to the knockout stages. Once they get to the knockout stage though, the fear factor kicks in again and draws become the order of the day.
Curious stat you have produced with the 0-2 and could be worth looking at. This season in the English leagues there have been 4.5% of games that ended with the 0-2 scoreline, which in Eurpoean odds is 22.0, so if you could lay at 16/17 you are onto a winner.
It is always worth looking into little stats like that and finding an angle from which you could make a profit. It is all the better because you have researched it yourself as well. Keep up the good work.
Kuchiki @ 10:12 pm
Hum… yes, I remember that you said you only back the draw when it’s the final rounds of certain tournaments, like CAN… i’ll continue with my tests to see which are the most profitable strategies… another oddity I saw was in the correct score market… in 130 games (from all over the world), only 3 of them ended with a 0-2 (one english, one dutch and one french)… checked various games to see how was the lay on this result and I was surprised to see that it’s “only” about 16, 17 points… doing a quick math gives us 127 (games won) – 17*3 (3 games lost) = 127-51 = 76 points/profit… the joy of the statistics hehe…
Well, take care and thank you for the wonderful tips.
99reds @ 7:44 am
Hi Kuchiki,
Thanks for your information on my little system, your English is very good by the way. It is true there are variations that you can use with the system and they may have better weeks than the Draw/Home system. I did use it last night again but was only able to find 5 games that were suitable, which is ok because you need either 5 or 10 games at a time. Anyway last night the Draw/Home option was the only one that made a profit on my matches.
I do only use it on selected matches and in general I look for 10 games that fit my criteria. You may be looking at a wider range of games than I use and by using the information you have gained it may lead you to a different conclusion. If that means it makes you a profit then it is worthwhile doing and I wish you luck with it.
As you know if you have read any of my blogs, I do not back the Draw and so would not go with the draw as the full time result for this system. However there are times when it proves me wrong and the Draw/Draw is a very profitable option but over a longer period I have found the Draw/Home a more viable option.
I do thank you for your valuable contribution and hope you keep up with your testing of the system abd that you find the prfitable angle that suits your needs.
Kuchiki @ 11:22 pm
Hi Kevin.
This is my first time writing here, but I’ve been following some of your systems a while ago… the 2-0 system is really a great system, low bets with high profits… so far, with just 2 weeks i’ve won 4 bets from a total of 10 teams (2 of them are english, Chelsea and Arsenal), leaving me now with some profit (Man Utd almost won today 2-0 too, but Owen screwed it up lol…).
Anyway, you offer great value bets at no cost, which is remarkable… so, I wanted to give an advice which might be helpful:
I’ve been testing this system since the day you talked about it… so far, I’ve tested 48 english games, from Premier to League 2 (didn’t test the BS Premier since Betfair doesn’t have HF/FT with this league) and wrote all the results, plus making a table which counts every outcome… so far, the D-H option is not a very good one, since just 6 games won (I don’t follow your tips, I just check myself)… so if I add 6 points per game won, so far is 6*6 = 36… the other 42 games were losses, so 36-42 = -6… not so good huh? But it’s just been 2 and a half weeks, so it’s too soon to take any conclusion.
But a few days ago, I checked the table and found something… when there were about 41 games, 4 games ended with a Home-Draw… at this point you might think “that’s just silly, backing an option with a Draw at Full-time in England?!”… well, the Home-Draw bet gives about a 15 point profit, so 15*4 = 60… minus the other 36 games gives 60 – 37 = 23 points/profit… sounds good, right? But today was even better, 7 games tested and two of them were Home-Draw (Cheltenham vs Torquay & Gillingham vs L Orient), so now it’s 48 games which gives us 6*15 = 90 – 42 = 48… the profit just doubled the losses ^_^
Maybe it was just a fluke getting those games in these 2 weeks, but I think its worth checking… …
Take care and sorry for my english lol
99reds @ 5:40 pm
Hi Davie D again,
As it has worked out today, your system of Draw/Draw made a small profit of 1 point, whilst my Draw/Home made a loss of 3 points. The big winner was the Draw/Away which made 5 points profit. That is just how it goes sometimes. Overall the Draw/Home has made 20 points profit over the last 3 weeks.
99reds @ 12:07 pm
Hi Davie D,
It is a point well made and there have been occasions on particular Saturdays when I thought I would have been better just backing them as draws. I don’t personally have the stats to be able to check your hypothesis but can look at it objectively using the information I know.
The Draw/Draw typically gives odds of 4/1. In the English Leagues draws run at 27%. You may argue that draws will be higher in evenly contested games like these we are dealing with. However, draws by their nature are totally random events and can appear anywhere at anytime and are notoriously difficult to predict. Even if we increased the 27% up to 30% for the draws, this would then have to be decreased for the draw/draw scenario, probably down to 20% or even lower.
If we work on the 20% figure, then at odds of 4/1, we would break even over a period of time. It is an interesting theory and one that I will monitor over the next few weeks to see how it goes. However, the bare maths of it seem to indicate a break even figure rather than profit but we will see over the coming months.
Davie D @ 10:28 pm
Hi Kevin,
I’m a first time contributor and think that I may have spotted something worth considering: Rule 4 is based on the fact that 45% of matches end in a home win.
Whilst this is the case in general, it may not be the same percentage for games where the two teams are evenly matched.
Anything above 33% would still make it the optimum result to go for, but I was wondering if you’ve noticed how a HT-Draw FT-Draw stategy would perform?
99reds @ 10:44 am
Hi there BetFair Trader,
It is true that you can select “aways” and sometimes they will perform better. The weekend before last the aways produced 9 points profit but the homes only 3.5 points. However this weekend the aways only managed 4 points profit whilst the homes managed 16.5 points profit. You can of course mix and match, use some homes and some aways but that means you have to consider each match and spend time thinking which team will win, making it a more subjective system. However, the system was designed to be totally objective, where no thought was reqiured about the actual result, you just performed the routine and came out with your winnings at the other end.
As far as long term returns go, I have to be honest here. This system is just one of 25 mini-systems that I have developed over the last 10 years. I do not use all of these systems every week, the only one I do use every week is my Ratings Table System. I just dip in and out of my mini-systems as required and so have not kept long term records of their performance. Safe to say though, I would not use any of them if they were not profitable but what I will do over the next couple of months is keep a check on the HT/FT results and report back.
BetFairTrader @ 11:45 pm
Further to my last, I think this system works best where you select some ‘aways’ So for Saturday, I had Portsmouth away and most of the rest home wins – well I only paper traded, but next time I will use real money. But this strategy showed a return of roughly 16 points. Would be interested to know what long-term returns are likely.
BetFairTrader @ 11:39 pm
Superb results with the half time / FT system last weekend
Well done Kevin – will be looking for more of these!