Calculating Pot Odds + Real-life Examples

Whether you like it or not, maths is an important part of poker and you need to know your approximate odds at any time in a hand to make the most of your chances of winning. Fortunately, it’s not so complicated and in this article I will give you an introduction to pot odds.

Why are pot odds so important?

If you are drawing for a certain card to come out on the turn/river, such a card that completes a straight, flush or full house, you will need to know if you are getting correct odds to draw to this card. If you make correct pot odds decisions all the time, then in the long-run you should be closer to making a profit.

What Are ‘Out’ Cards?

These are the number of cards that can make your hand. For example, if you are drawing to a heart flush on the river there are 9 cards that can help you to complete that flush. As there are only 13 hearts in a pack and 4 of them will be out on the board and in your hand, there can be only 9 hearts remaining. The cards held by other players do not count as they are unknown to you (unless you are colluding).

Calculating Your Odds

If 9 is the number of cards that can be drawn to achieve your hand, and the total number out there is 46 (2 of your cards plus 4 on the board making up a standard 52 card deck), you divide 9 by 46. (9/46 x 100 = 19.56%).

Here are the odds for the main draws:

Flush - if you are holding four cards to a flush, the odds of getting it on the turn are roughly 19% and 19% on the river. The chance of getting it on either the turn or the river is 35%.

Open-Ended Straight - the odds of hitting it on the turn is 17% and on the river is 17%. The chance of getting it on either the turn or the river is 31%.

Gutshot Straight - the chances of hitting your card is 8% on the turn and 8% on the river. The chance of getting it on either the turn or the river is only 16%

Set - the odds of turning a pair into three of a kind (set) on the turn is 4% and on the river is 4%. Getting it on either the turn or the river is 8%. The odds of hitting a set on flop is 12%.

See bottom of page for odds for ALL the draws.
The 4,2 Rule

If you can’t remember the above odds, there is a simple rule that gives the approximate percentage on both the turn and the river. Its called the 4,2 rule.

The numbers relate to the odds on both the turn and the river. To calculate the odds % on hitting a card on the turn or the river you need to multiply the number of outs you have by 4. To calculate the odds of hitting a card on the river you need to times the number of outs you have by 2.

Putting it all together with some examples

***** Hand History for Game 637762332 ***** (Betfair)
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold’em - Tuesday, January 19, 01:47:07 ET 2010
Table Neon 118 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: NoOneHere ( $48.75 USD )
Seat 2: capo79 ( $70.01 USD )
Seat 3: TureSventon ( $5.99 USD )
Seat 4: maronne ( $33.74 USD )
Seat 5: rocual ( $10.20 USD )
Seat 6: BrasilNut ( $60.45 USD )
capo79 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
TureSventon posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BrasilNut [ As Ts ]
maronne raises [$1.00 USD]
rocual folds
BrasilNut calls [$1.00 USD]
NoOneHere folds
capo79 calls [$0.75 USD]
TureSventon folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, 9s, Kc ]
capo79 checks
maronne bets [$2.00 USD]
BrasilNut raises [$8.00 USD]
capo79 folds
maronne calls [$6.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9d ]
maronne bets [$2.00 USD]
BrasilNut raises [$51.45 USD]
maronne calls [$22.74 USD]
BrasilNut wins $26.71 USD
maronne shows [Tc, 9c ]
BrasilNut shows [As, Ts ]
** Dealing River ** [ Ah ]
maronne wins $65.98 USD from main pot

In this example, I was drawing to a nut flush (9 outs) and a gutshot straight draw – Queen (4 outs) giving me a total of 13 outs times 4 for both turn/river and I have 52% chance of hitting and very likely winning the pot.

On flop, marrone bets $2 into $3.50 pot giving me favourable odds of 27% to make the call. I decide to raise here since my draw is so powerful that I am likely to be ahead by the river if I’m up against a pair and only small underdog against two pair.

On turn, marrone donks into me $2 into $19.50 pot giving me ridiculous 9% odds to call and I’m in theory 26% to hit my draw. The problem on turn is that it is a paired board and my outs are reduced since for one I could be up against trips and still hit one of my outs and lose or I’m up against a house and drawing dead! I decide to push all in here since I’m trying to get a pair to fold here (what he is likely representing by this minimum bet) and putting my money in while I still have 26% equity to win. Calling here and hoping to hit on river is fine but it is unlikely that you will win with Ace-High unless you decide to bluff.

Here is another example, this time from a limit game:

***** Hand History for Game 637778500 ***** (Betfair)
$2.50/$5.00 Limit Texas Hold’em - Tuesday, January 19, 02:24:52 ET 2010
Table Zonda 06 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: sneakinboy ( $73.00 USD )
Seat 2: peacemate1 ( $140.98 USD )
Seat 3: killercypru ( $72.99 USD )
Seat 4: BrasilNut ( $133.75 USD )
Seat 5: sickplayz ( $67.61 USD )
Seat 6: gogo7 ( $25.55 USD )
gogo7 posts small blind [$1.25 USD].
sneakinboy posts big blind [$2.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BrasilNut [ 6d 5d ]
peacemate1 folds
killercypru raises [$5.00 USD]
BrasilNut calls [$5.00 USD]
sickplayz folds
gogo7 calls [$3.75 USD]
sneakinboy folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, 4c, Js ]
gogo7 checks
killercypru bets [$2.50 USD]
BrasilNut raises [$5.00 USD]
gogo7 calls [$5.00 USD]
killercypru calls [$2.50 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8s ]
gogo7 checks
killercypru checks
BrasilNut bets [$5.00 USD]
gogo7 calls [$5.00 USD]
killercypru calls [$5.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ As ]
gogo7 checks
killercypru checks
BrasilNut bets [$5.00 USD]
gogo7 raises [$10.00 USD]
killercypru folds
BrasilNut calls [$5.00 USD]
gogo7 shows [5c, 8c ]
BrasilNut shows [6d, 5d ]
BrasilNut wins $64.50 USD from main pot

On flop I have a standard open-ended straight draw which is 8 outs – any 8 or 3. I also have a backdoor flush draw which helps a bit. In total I am 30% to complete my draw by the river. On flop there is $17.50 in the pot and I have to call $2.50 giving me 11% thus making it profitable to call. I raise since I have position and I may decide to check behind turn if I don’t hit (making my draw cheaper). Betting is also fine if you feel your opponent may fold a weak pair. This is all read dependant. On turn I hit and bet all the way for value from worse hands and even manage to call a silly bluff – what are these guys thinking?

Close decision:

***** Hand History for Game 630742832 ***** (Betfair)
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold’em - Wednesday, January 06, 12:17:34 ET 2010
Table Gemini 79 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: CAPTAIN 01 ( $31.10 USD )
Seat 2: SWINEFLU UK ( $54.67 USD )
Seat 3: Gowa ( $61.14 USD )
Seat 4: tomas2 ( $115.42 USD )
Seat 5: BrasilNut ( $91.57 USD )
Seat 6: clurg ( $36.65 USD )
tomas2 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
BrasilNut posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BrasilNut [ 3s 3c ]
clurg raises [$1.75 USD]
CAPTAIN 01 calls [$1.75 USD]
SWINEFLU UK folds
Gowa folds
tomas2 calls [$1.50 USD]
BrasilNut calls [$1.25 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2h, 3h, 9h ]
tomas2 bets [$7.00 USD]
BrasilNut raises [$18.00 USD]
clurg folds
CAPTAIN 01 raises [$29.35 USD]
tomas2 raises [$33.70 USD]
BrasilNut calls [$22.70 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6s ]
tomas2 bets [$72.97 USD]
BrasilNut calls [$49.12 USD]
tomas2 wins $23.85 USD
CAPTAIN 01 shows [Jh, Th ]
tomas2 shows [5h, Qh ]
BrasilNut shows [3s, 3c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 5c ]
tomas2 wins $120.94 USD from main pot
tomas2 wins $92.05 USD from main pot

In this hand I am drawing to a full house or quads since I am almost certain my opponent(s) have a flush after some of the action. Therefore, I have 7 outs (15%) on flop and 10 outs on turn (28%). On flop, $7 is bet into me in a $7 pot giving me 33% odds. So, if I really put him on a flush it’s a very close decision 33% v 28%. However, of course at this point I can’t put him on a flush so I decide to raise for value so worse hands can pay me off including overpairs, flush draws and two pair type hands.

I raise and I get re raised all by a smaller stack and the original bettor re-re-raises to $22 more. At this point I am getting 19% odds to call vs 15% to hit and I call (I do not want to go all in here as I am drawing). On turn, I have a very tough decision as Tomas bets $49 into $117 pot giving me 23% to call but I am only roughly 20% to hit. Well, I decide to call since there is small chance that he could have a lower set or really overplayed overpair or two pair in his range.

Incorrect odds to call:

***** Hand History for Game 636823716 ***** (Betfair)
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold’em - Sunday, January 17, 04:29:40 ET 2010
Table Neon 62 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: Sit0ut ( $43.70 USD )
Seat 2: WILLYSP ( $64.44 USD )
Seat 3: bdfhad ( $25.11 USD )
Seat 4: BrasilNut ( $41.90 USD )
Seat 5: serkan888 ( $105.53 USD )
Seat 6: Seaman6207 ( $25.00 USD )
bdfhad posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
BrasilNut posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BrasilNut [ 9s 7d ]
serkan888 folds
Sit0ut folds
WILLYSP folds
bdfhad raises [$0.75 USD]
BrasilNut calls [$0.50 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8s, Ac, 6d ]
bdfhad bets [$2.00 USD]
BrasilNut raises [$7.20 USD]
bdfhad calls [$5.20 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jc ]
bdfhad bets [$16.91 USD]
BrasilNut calls [$16.91 USD]
bdfhad shows [Jh, Jd ]
BrasilNut shows [9s, 7d ]
** Dealing River ** [ Kh ]
bdfhad wins $47.72 USD from main pot

On the flop I was 34% to hit my straight draw until river and he bet $2 into $2 pot giving me 33%, close decision but so far so good. I raise because it gives me a good chance to take down the pot OR hit my draw. On turn, he bets all-in $16 into $16 pot this time giving me only 17% but against I’m only getting 33%. I have no showdown value here like a pair so I have to hit one of those 6 outs to win. This is a bad investment and is a clear fold, especially since the donkey hit his 2 outer on turn and reducing my ‘real outs’. Oooops, I swear it was a misclick….