31 replies to this topic

[clotty]

No guesses... was I that boring

I'll let you know now... the answer to the question was putting the value bets in doubles, even trebles. If you don't have value bets, your advantage is just made worse by these accumulators, however, when you do have value bets, putting them in accumulators increases your value! If you go any higher than trebles, it's unlikely you'll see a return on your money for a long, long time, so I wouldn't advise it. Even with doubles and trebles, you'll still face losing periods, but all the mathematical evidence claims that you'll make a profit, and have a bigger ROI than if you just did singles.

All the best,

[jrp]

Hi clotty,

Thanks for sharing that with us and I for one will certainly be looking at this concept in more detail.

Sorry no one took up your challenge, I was going to but didnt get the time and was going to ramble on about trying to select a place win by using the simple calc of field numbers divided by place numbers to get a standard % based probability factor, then armed with this go about looking for nags with this type of price (ie price expressed as a % of potential to win) and if they were above it ignore them; or well below it ignore them; or finally around a certain variable amount just below it then back them to place.

Logic here was to acknowledge a low sr and instead rely on a higher price to get profits in the long run...

Obviously way off the mark in terms of what you kindly disclosed to us all last night, so perhaps I'm glad after all that I didnt get the time to post my response to your challenge!

Trade well.

[terry-shep]

Picking up on JRP's last aout strike rate v. odds, I recently read had a promotional email about a system called Power Betting, for which the originators claimed some very impressive figures, aided by a proportional-type staking plan.

They reckon to have made their profits through a strike rate of less than 20% but their winners averaging 13/2. They speak of this relationship as 'the sweet spot between odds and strike rate'.

Anybody any thoughts on this?

Regards all

TS

[clotty]

Hmmmm. Off the top of my head I can't think of what it could be. It sounds a bit like Kelly Staking if the stake for each bet is different, but, at the end of the day, this is a promo and they will, of course, try to word things to make them sound new. As far as I know the best staking plan is fixed stakes of a certain % of the bank at the start. This original bet amount then stays constant 'till a milestone is reach, when you then resort to the same % amount you started with, but of the new milestone.

I don't think I've worded this very well, so I'll give an example.

You start with a bank of 100. You have a strike rate of 50%. Being cautious you decide to bet 10% of the bank on all bets. 10% of 100 is 10. All bets will be ten, regardless of whether the next bets are won or lost, untill you hit a milestone.

We'll say the milestone is 150. At 150, you go back to the 10%, which will now be 15 and stake 15 on every bet, until you get to the next milestone.

It's nothing new and most people will probably have heard about it, but for backing, I think it's the safest thing to do.

Remember, should things go wrong, you need to have a milestone for if you start losing. For example, say after reaching 150, you went back down to 100, you should go back to using bet stakes of 10...

[terry-shep]

I think this milestone idea is probably the best staking plan of all. It's similar to the method advocated by many people except that they mostly suggest that the stakes should be adjusted between every bet, even when losing.

They rightly claim that this maximises one's winnings but overlook that it also maximises one's losses and the reduction in stake as you hit a few losers means that you take longer to recover. The milestone method tends to iron out these troughs and peaks.

I think the Power Betting scenario I mentioned earlier used the percentage after every bet method to compound their claimed winnings but what I really was asking opinions about was this 'sweet spot between odds and strike rate' they mentioned. In other words, is there a happy medium between a low strike rate and the odds you get on your winners that the bookies haven't twigged?

I'd love to believe it, but somehow......

TS

[jrp]

Hi terry-shep

I think that the happy medium you are asking about really depends upon you, the all important trader and not anyone elses claims. Things such as your tolerance to drawdowns, bank capacity and willingness to "stick" with the plan are really relevant here and most certainly are precedent when considering employing a low sr system.

Taking consequitive losers on the chin is OK as long as your bank can support this and you have confidence in the sytem employed to produce a good priced winner at a juncture that makes it worth while. Most traders will not adhere long term to any system after a severe drawdown runs, simply because they tend to loose sight of what it was they originally designed a system to do and instead let the emotional baggage take control and drop the whole thing.

Trade well.

[terry-shep]

Hello again, JRP

I agree with your comments, one's level of risk acceptance determines how far one wants to take any system, the all-important aspect is where the lines of strike rate and odds taken cross. It's no good having a 50% strike rate if all your winners are odds-on!

To change the subject, you were trialling Bet Angel Pro recently; at the end of the 20 days, did you subscribe and/or what were your experiences with it? I know your particular interest was in its Excel links but what about its other functions?

I know you are a serious trader (when you aren't on holiday, of course ) so your thoughts on this would be very helpful, as I'm trying to convince myself that I'm capable of using such a program.

Trade on.

[jrp]

Hi terry-shep

I trialed BAP a few months ago under their [then] £20 two week offer and have to admit that out of this period I only perhaps used it intensely for a few days due to normal day trading activities.

As you corectly pointed out it was the MS Excel feature that interested me so unforttunately I cant really comment on BAP's normal trading features, apart from one screen which allowed fast single click trading for scalping the market which I quite liked as there was no "clutter" around the essential information.

One thing I can say about BAP is their excellent speed of technical updating every time BetFair does one of their horrible and frustrating modifications - from memory I was only down for around three or four races. Dont forget that with BAP you have to pay the monthy ongoing charge of £20 so factor this in to your profit strategy if deciding to go ahead.

Sorry I cant comment more on the BAP regular trading features, but from what I've seen and read from others they are apparently very good.

Trade well.

[snook80uk]

Hi.

Nothing to do with last posts

Just thought I would give you an update on my betting with VHF.

The last time I got that sick of the bookies rule 4 that I eliminated that many races I sat there for 5 hours with no bets.

There is another forum where some chap said that he gets the best bets early in the morning.

The problem with this is that early in the morning you will have all horses running, by the time it starts: "how many drop out"?

You could be facing the situation I was, backed horse to 3 places race started down to 2 places; yes you guessed it came third.

Nothing from the bookie paid out on betfair.

When you are paper betting you do not look at this you just write down your bets and assume they went through.

Also when I first started and won the £70 plus I didn't check to see if the bookies altered my bet because if the horse came second it would have little or no effect.

Although I did notice on some bets I didn’t win as much as I thought I would, but now I know I can put this down to rule 4.

It was only when the horse came 4th or 3rd and the bookies didn't pay that I realised that this program is not for me.

The problem is that the money you lose on these bets is so much greater than the ones you win on.

Snook80uk

[terry-shep]

Greetings, JRP.

As I've mentioned, I do a little trading with small stakes, trying to get a grip on the technique, as I have come to believe that there is no 'system' which can beat the bookies.

I have been trading on the longer races to give me time to weigh up what's happening and thought I was getting the job sorted. However, I'm running into a period where I seem to be able to get a first trade done, grabbing whatever small gain I can but then, on subsequent trades, falling on my face and ending up with bad positions open. I guess I'm probably trading too long and running out of time, among other bad methods.

I realise that there isn't a cut & dried formula for making trading decisions but can you offer any suggestions as to what I am doing, or should not be doing? I'd be obliged.

Snook80UK

I'm sorry to hear you are not doing well with VHF; I originally thought of having a go at this program and your posts helped me to make decision about it. Is the suggestion from Clotty about not laying the bet as advised any good to you? At least, this would prevent any of those huge liabilities coming home to roost when the enemy apply the iniquitous Rule 4. Clotty (who is no mug, by the way) reckons you would be more profitable in the long run NOT laying them. I hope you do better with it anyway, Buying a system and finding it to be short of expectations is very dispiriting, I'm sure we've all done it.

Regards.

[jrp]

Hi t-s

Am struggling to post a reply with a constant server error, will be trying again later so hang on!

Trade well.

[jrp]

Admin

Am getting this error message when attempting to reply to terry-shep:-

Forbidden
You don't have permission to access /forum/index.php on this server.

Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Apache/1.3.34 Server at www.laytheodds.com Port 80

Me not know what this means Mr. Fawlty!

Trade well

[laytheodds]

Hi Jrp,

I think I know what the problem is. I will get it sorted as soon as possible.

Not sure if you know, but we got hacked into again recently so we have tightened up security to make sure it doesn't happen again and it has affected some of the features on the website.

Might take a couple of days to get the request sorted.

If you want me to forward the message on to him, please let me know.

I think you should still have my normal email.

Cheers
Gavin

Hi Jrp,

Both seemed to work ok. Try sending an email from scratch to him rather than replying.

Let me know if the problem still happens or if its just when you are replying.

Cheers

[jrp]

Hi t-s

Without knowing exactly how you trade its hard for me to comment here. What I would say to you is try standing back for a few trading days and evaluate exactly what you do in terms of a typical day and see whether this can be enhanced in any way through additional techniques or purely via refinement. Also, dont try and shoot everything in sight and instead focus on one style to begin with through being selective about what to trade in what sort of market, such as the second favourite in 15 or over fields bombing around a 1.5 mile or over distance etc.

One thing I learnt early on in trading financial markets (which applies to BF ones as well) is that more exposure equals more risk; when ticking on BF I set myself a target of N amount of basis (ie one tenth) points and once attained or failed come out regardless. Then its time to move onto the next opportunity and NOT dwell on the last or linger on for that extra buck or attempt a recovery! Remember there is always two sides to a trade so when you win someone elses losses and they will be seeking to grab that loss back again - dont let it be from you so squirrel your gain away and move onto the next.

Most importantly, plan your trade then trade your plan. Set yourself a realistic and achievable target for a certain amount of points over a ten (not one or two!) day trading period, then monitor your progress constantly to see if any distinctive pattern emerges as to why you either hit or miss the target, then re-visit your whole strategy to see if it will tolerate a bit of fine tuning.

If you trade with the imperative use of cash management then you will be able to utilise your capital resourses to their maximum - ie you "buy" much more time to experiment, fine tune and re-apply any system employed.

Finally, never give up! There are ways to scrabble a living out of trading but these have got to be worked at and dont make a mint overnight; this is definitely a medium term thing despite what "black box" system vendors and those awful so called tipsters would have you believe...

Trade well

Hi Gavin,

As you can see from the last post the problem seems to be sorted thanks. I'll reply to your earlier email later on after today's bun fight session finishes!

Best regards to you and trade well.

[terry-shep]

Hi. JRP

That's a really helpful and constructive reply; I thank you for it. This is what the forum is about.

I am going to pull back and look at things. I've already realised that I have traded too much on a race and have now started to take my first trade, then stop - but it's hard! Discipline, what's that? It's patience as much as anything that you need, the realisation that there's another opportunity just 10 minutes away, maybe 20-30 times a day.

When I start again, I'll do what you suggest: set a target and adhere to it. Actually, this won't be as hard as it might be because I am beginning to get a bit restive, stuck in front of the screen all afternoon; I'll welcome a respite between sessions.

Regards.