57 replies to this topic

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As discussed in my post earlier this week, I've been actively spread betting on the bookings indexes in La Liga matches, with good success.

I will be suggesting possible bets each week for the upcoming fixtures in these markets, which you could monitor with interest, or get involved in if you wish.

If you don't understand spread betting, and how to calculate the risk involved in your bets, please wait until you do so before you start to gamble. Any questions, just ask.

So, on to this weekends matches.

There is an argument for selling Bookings in all but two of the matches in Round 12 of La Liga, including the big el clasico encounter between Barcelona and Real Madrid. Barca have comfortably the best disciplinary record in the league, and Real's is better than most, but those stats can probably be set aside when they meet. Or should they? The average make up in these encounters over the lat 4 seasons is actually almost spot on the La Liga average of around 62.

And, the same referee officiated in the corresponding fixture last season, and the bookings make up was 60, which is roughly Senor Mallenco's average for all Spanish matches.

There is another inter-city derby match this weekend involving these two Spanish strongholds, when Athletico Madrid host Espanyol on Sunday night. This match has produced more cards in recent years than the more celebrated Barca v Real game, and this is reflected in a higher spread for the late Sunday game, and is refereed by a more "officious" ref. I still think this market is a sell.

Here are my recommendations for this weekend;

17:00 Sat Sporting Gijon v Villareal - Sell Bookings @ 65
19:00 Sat Valencia v Mallorca - Sell Bookings @ 64 (live in-running match)
21:00 Sat Sevilla v Malaga - Sell Bookings @ 66 (live in-running match)
16:00 Sun Almeria v A Bilbao - Sell Bookings @ 82
16:00 Sun Getafe v Xerez - Sell Bookings @ 74
16:00 Sun Racing v Deportivo - Sell Bookings @ 54
16:00 Sun Zaragoza v Osasuna - No Bet
16:00 Sun Valladolid v Tenerife - Buy Bookings @ 64
18:00 Sun Barcelona v Real Madrid - Sell Bookings @ 70 (live in-running match)
20:00 Sun A Madrid v Espanyol - Sell Bookings @ 76 (live in-running match)

REMEMBER, bookings indexes are very volatile, so if you decide to invest in these markets, be aware of the downside.
Sporting Index will accept stakes of as low as 10p in this market.

Good luck.

PS. If you don't already have an account, you can open a spread betting account at Sporting Index.

[spreadeck]

A few too many cards in the weekend La Liga matches, for my predominantly sell based recommendations to turn a profit.

Here were the make-ups;

17:00 Sat Sporting Gijon v Villareal - Sell Bookings @ 65 M/U 75 (-10 times loss)
19:00 Sat Valencia v Mallorca - Sell Bookings @ 64 (live in-running match) M/U 70 (-6 loss)
21:00 Sat Sevilla v Malaga - Sell Bookings @ 66 (live in-running match) M/U 80 (-14 loss)
16:00 Sun Almeria v A Bilbao - Sell Bookings @ 82 M/U 70 (+12 profit)
16:00 Sun Getafe v Xerez - Sell Bookings @ 74 M/U 55 (+19 profit)
16:00 Sun Racing v Deportivo - Sell Bookings @ 54 M/U 60 (-6 loss)
16:00 Sun Zaragoza v Osasuna - No Bet M/U 80
16:00 Sun Valladolid v Tenerife - Buy Bookings @ 64 M/U 75 (+11 profit)
18:00 Sun Barcelona v Real Madrid - Sell Bookings @ 70 (live in-running match) M/U 110 (-40 loss)
20:00 Sun A Madrid v Espanyol - Sell Bookings @ 76 (live in-running match) M/U 85 (-9 loss)

Total loss -43 times stake. -2.15 pts loss.

If you don't already have an account, you can open a spread betting account at Sporting Index.

[spreadeck]

We were undone last week, principally by a rather fussy performance I thought, from Mallenco in El Clasico. The make-up in this match was 110 in the end, with 2 sent off, and although this is what you get in La Liga, and it was a game of such importance, I thought the ref was unnecessarily over officious throughout.

Potential value this week has been much harder to find, but here are my recommendations for Week 13 in La Liga;

Tenerife v S Gijon Sell Bookings @ 74
Villareal v Getafe Sell Bookings @ 54
Mallorca v Zaragoza Sell Bookings @ 60

All of these markets are only available with Sporting Index, click on the link to open an account.

Remember, follow the betting bank principles described here.

Good luck.

[spreadeck]

We were undone last week, principally by a rather fussy performance I thought, from Mallenco in El Clasico. The make-up in this match was 110 in the end, with 2 sent off, and although this is what you get in La Liga, and it was a game of such importance, I thought the ref was unnecessarily over officious throughout.

Potential value this week has been much harder to find, but here are my recommendations for Week 13 in La Liga;

Tenerife v S Gijon Sell Bookings @ 74
Villareal v Getafe Sell Bookings @ 54
Mallorca v Zaragoza Sell Bookings @ 60

All of these markets are only available with Sporting Index, click on the link to open an account.

Remember, follow the betting bank principles described here.

Good luck.

Our La Liga Bookings figures took a hefty nudge in the wrong direction following a late flurry of cards at El Madrigal on Saturday. We had one up, one down and one level from the selections, but as we know, in spread betting the margins by which you are right or wrong is a defining factor.

Here are how the weekend recommendations made up;

Tenerife v S Gijon M/U 40 +34 times stake profit +1.7pts
Villareal v Getafe M/U 130 -76 times loss -3.8pts loss
Mallorca v Zaragoza M/U 60 BREAK EVEN 0.00pts

Total for the weekend: -2.1pts loss
Overall Total for LL Bookings: -4.25pts loss

[spreadeck]

Rest assured, it's nothing to do with us tipping up recommendations on this Forum, but the spread firms seem to be making it much tougher to find the value we are looking for of late.

Never ones to shirk a challenge, we shall battle on regardless, and this weekends La Liga fixtures throw up a few interesting options.

There is a big derby game in Barcelona between the title holders and Espanyol, and the bookings make ups in the last two encounters at the Nou Camp between these sides is a whopping 285!! However, Barca's disciplinary record, particularly at home this season, is exemplary by Spanish standards, and the referee is experienced and consistent, so it's a no bet at 78-82.

Star billing this weekend goes to the Valencia v Real Madrid clash at the Mestalla, but Senor Vitienes is one of the less card happy arbiters in Spain, and the last two match ups at this ground between these two have only resulted in 8 yellows and 1 red over the two matches. It possibly warrants a sell @ 68, but Madrid have had some discipline problems on the road this season, so one to leave I think.

The really intriguing one from a bookings perspective is the Zaragoza v Bilbao match at 17:00 tomorrow. The last time these teams met, late last season in Bilbao, the referee sent off 5 players, and booked 13, making a bookings make-up of 255! Not sure if that's a record, but I think it's the highest I've seen!

Granted, this was at Athletic, but you would expect a few little disagreements to perhaps still to be festering from their previous meeting just 7 months ago. Senor Carballo is having a quiet season so far, and has one of the lowest averages so far in La Liga, but in seasons past, he's been one of the highest. This could be a great chance to get his average up! Worth a buy @ 80.

To summarise, here are all my La Liga bookings recommendations;

Valencia v Real Madrid Sell @ 70 (Spreadex)
A Madrid v Villarreal Sell @ 70 (Sporting Index)
Almeria v Deportivo Sell @ 72 (Sporting Index)
R Zaragoza v A Bilbao Buy @ 80 (Sporting Index)

Bonus Bet: Total Goals is spreading high in the AM v Villa game, best buy price 3.3 with Spreadex. These teams should have at least 3 goals between them, and this game has produced a load of goals in recent seasons, so worth a buy.

Buy Total Goals @ 3.3 (Spreadex)

REMEMBER, bookings indexes are very volatile, so if you decide to invest in these markets, be aware of the downside.
Sporting Index will accept stakes of as low as 10p in this market.

Good luck.

[spreadeck]

Rest assured, it's nothing to do with us tipping up recommendations on this Forum, but the spread firms seem to be making it much tougher to find the value we are looking for of late.

Never ones to shirk a challenge, we shall battle on regardless, and this weekends La Liga fixtures throw up a few interesting options.

There is a big derby game in Barcelona between the title holders and Espanyol, and the bookings make ups in the last two encounters at the Nou Camp between these sides is a whopping 285!! However, Barca's disciplinary record, particularly at home this season, is exemplary by Spanish standards, and the referee is experienced and consistent, so it's a no bet at 78-82.

Star billing this weekend goes to the Valencia v Real Madrid clash at the Mestalla, but Senor Vitienes is one of the less card happy arbiters in Spain, and the last two match ups at this ground between these two have only resulted in 8 yellows and 1 red over the two matches. It possibly warrants a sell @ 68, but Madrid have had some discipline problems on the road this season, so one to leave I think.

The really intriguing one from a bookings perspective is the Zaragoza v Bilbao match at 17:00 tomorrow. The last time these teams met, late last season in Bilbao, the referee sent off 5 players, and booked 13, making a bookings make-up of 255! Not sure if that's a record, but I think it's the highest I've seen!

Granted, this was at Athletic, but you would expect a few little disagreements to perhaps still to be festering from their previous meeting just 7 months ago. Senor Carballo is having a quiet season so far, and has one of the lowest averages so far in La Liga, but in seasons past, he's been one of the highest. This could be a great chance to get his average up! Worth a buy @ 80.

To summarise, here are all my La Liga bookings recommendations;

Valencia v Real Madrid Sell @ 70 (Spreadex)
A Madrid v Villarreal Sell @ 70 (Sporting Index)
Almeria v Deportivo Sell @ 72 (Sporting Index)
R Zaragoza v A Bilbao Buy @ 80 (Sporting Index)

Bonus Bet: Total Goals is spreading high in the AM v Villa game, best buy price 3.3 with Spreadex. These teams should have at least 3 goals between them, and this game has produced a load of goals in recent seasons, so worth a buy.

Buy Total Goals @ 3.3 (Spreadex)

REMEMBER, bookings indexes are very volatile, so if you decide to invest in these markets, be aware of the downside.
Sporting Index will accept stakes of as low as 10p in this market.

Good luck.

A clean sweep on the La Liga Bookings this weekend with the make-ups as follows;

Valencia M/U 60. 0.5pts profit
A Madrid M/U 20. 2.5pts profit
Almeria M/U 10. 3.1pts profit
Zaragoza M/U 90. 0.5 pts profit

Total Goals bet in the A Madrid game came up 0.3pts short

Total for the weekend: 6.3pts profit
La Liga Overall Total: 2.05pts profit

[spreadeck]

After last weekends 4 from 4 success in La Liga Bookings, the pressure is on to keep the run going in the final set of fixtures before the Spanish league takes its short festive break.

Even harder than usual this week to find what looks like value, and I've come up with only three in the end.

Perhaps the big game of the weekend is at the Riazor, where Depor entertain Valencia, and with the home side in particular having a sound disciplinary record this season, and the visitors being reasonable, it looks like a possible sell despite the low spread @ 56. However, the corresponding fixture last season saw a bookings make-up of 115, and that's enough to put me off selling at such a low number by La Liga averages.

Cut to the chase then, here are the selections;

Valladolid v S Gijon Sell Bookings @ 66 (0.5pts) M/U 50. 0.4pts profit
Sevilla v Getafe Sell Bookings @ 68 (1pt) M/U 60. 0.4pts profit
Malaga v Mallorca Buy Bookings @ 67 (0.5pts) M/U 60. 0.175pts profit

Good luck if you get involved.

[spreadeck]

Total for the weekend; 0.975pts profit
Overall Total; 3.025pts profit

[spreadeck]

La Liga is back after a short Christmas break, and hopefully we can build on our modest profits in 2010.

I'll probably be back with more for tomorrows matches, but for now I think that of the three games on Saturday, the Barca v Villarreal match offers the best value.

I'm not sure why bookings in this match is priced so high, although it does reflect recent make-ups in matches between these two. However, the referee tonight is not one of the more card happy arbiters, and Barca's disciplinary record is second to none, especially at home, and the visitors are no worse that average. Why this game is priced almost identically to the A Madrid v Sevilla encounter seems strange to me, and if a market existed involving bookings supremacy between two matches, then I might take an interest.

Come on Sporting, why not try that one?!

Recommendation;
Barca v Villarreal Sell Bookings @ 66 (1pt) Extrabet M/U 60. 0.3pt profit

Good luck!

The Athletico v Sevilla match made up 95 so if you took my hint and bought (which I didn't), then well done!

[spreadeck]

A few more from this weekends La Liga bookings markets for you......

Sell Bookings Getafe v Valladolid @ 54 (1pt) M/U 40. 0.7pt profit
Sell Bookings Zaragoza v Deportivo @ 58 (1pt) M/U 60. 0.1pt loss
Sell Bookings Osasuna v R Madrid @ 68 (1pt) M/U 60. 0.4pt profit

All prices with Sporting Index.

Good Luck!

Successful, though modest returns this weekend, with a 1.3pt profit overall from the 4 selections.

Overall Total; 4.325pts profit

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10 from the last 11 selections have been successful!

Pride comes before a fall, and all that, but nothing wrong with blowing one's own trumpet now and again!!

[spreadeck]

We're on a bit of a roll with our La Liga selections, so the pressure is on, but I'm about to get my excuses in early!

When searching for the value in these bookings bets, I look at the stats relating to the teams and the referee, including any recent history between the teams, and their comparative home/away disciplinary records. All of course in relation to the price offered, in the hope of finding some openings, and when all of the aforementioned numbers fall roughly in line, you might be onto something.

This week though, as sometimes happens, a lot of the numbers are flying against each other, so what initially looked like a host of potential gems, has been whittled down to these. Sells are normally the order of the day, but I've picked a couple of buys this week;

Malaga v A Bilbao Buy Bookings @ 69 M/U 60. 0.45pt loss
Xerez v Valencia Buy Bookings @ 68 M/U 60. 0.4pts loss
Deportivo v Osasuna Sell Bookings @ 61 M/U 55. 0.3pts profit
(all 1pt bets)

Good luck!

Weekend; 0.55pts loss
La Liga Bookings Overall; 3.775pts profit

[spreadeck]

After finding the number crunching quite arduous last week, this time round there seems to be quite a lot which falls into place. That of course is no guarantee of success, but I'm confident that there are a few wrong prices around this weekend, and hopefully we can take advantage.

Also, having paper traded on La Liga bookings supremacy for a while, I tipped up a Copa Del Rey match in midweek which broke even, and I have 4 selections for this weekend in this market.

Bookings recommendations;
R Santander v R Valladolid Sell Bookings @ 61 M/U 30. 1.55pts profit
Barcelona v Sevilla Sell Bookings @ 68 M/U 60. 0.4pts profit
Almeria v Tenerife Sell Bookings @ 70 M/U 105. 1.75pts loss
Valencia v Villareal Sell Bookings @ 70 M/U 75. 0.25pts loss
R Zaragoza v Xerez Sell Bookings @ 60 M/U 65. 0.25pts loss
Malaga v Getafe Buy Bookings @ 68 M/U 145. 3.85pts profit
A Madrid v S Gijon Sell Bookings @ 62 (Extrabet) M/U 60. 0.1pts profit
R Mallorca v Deportivo Sell Bookings @ 62 M/U 60. 0.1pts profit

Bookings Supremacy recommendations;
Buy Sevilla Sup over Barcelona @ 14 (Extrabet) M/U 20. 0.3pts profit
Sell Villarreal Sup over Valencia @ 8 M/U -25. 1.65pts profit
Sell S Gijon Sup over A Madrid @ 6 M/U -20. 1.3pts profit
Sell A Bilbao Sup over R Madrid @ 2 M/U 25. 1.15pts loss

All bets 1pt and with Sporting unless stated.

Quite a lot to get your teeth into there, but please stick to the staking plan and bank management explained in our tutorials.

Good luck!

Weekend Bookings; 3.75pts profit
Weekend Supremacies; 2.1pts profit
Weekend Overall; 5.85pts profit
La Liga Overall; 9.625 pts profit

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Best set of results so far for La Liga, including a good start for my supremacy selections.

Can maybe count myself a little unlucky there as well, as the only reverse came courtesy of an injury time red card for a Bilbao player.

All about the long term though, let's see if we can keep it going.

[spreadeck]

Week 19, and the halfway stage of La Liga with Barca certain to be crowned "Winter Champions" regardless of results.

Some interesting fixtures as always, including a couple of derbies, between Getafe and Atletico and Gijon at home to Racing.

Hoping to follow up last weeks success in the bookings supremacy markets, and we have a selection from each live match, as well as the bookings indexes in 6 of the games. A few are fairly marginal though, and selling at low numbers in Spain is always dangerous, but remember to understand your risk by staking accordingly, and with stops in place where you can.

This weeks recommendations;

Bookings Index:
Getafe v A Madrid Sell Bookings @ 72 M/U 75. 0.15pts loss
Valladolid v Barcelona Sell Bookings @ 56 M/U 40. 0.8pts profit
Tenerife v Valencia Sell Bookings @ 55 M/U 30. 1.25pts profit
Espanyol v Mallorca Sell Bookings @ 66 M/U 70. 0.2pts loss
Deportivo v A Bilbao Sell Bookings @ 68 M/U 50. 0.9pts profit
Real Madrid v Malaga Sell Bookings @ 60 (Extrabet) M/U 65. 0.25pts loss

Bookings supremacy:
Buy A Madrid bookings sup @ 7 (Extrabet) M/U 55. 2.4pts profit
Sell Valladolid bookings sup @ 12 M/U 0. 0.6pts profit
Buy A Bilbao bookings sup @ 12 (Extrabet) M/U 10. 0.1pts loss
Buy Malaga bookings sup @ 14 M/U 15. 0.05pts profit

All bets 1pt with Sporting unless stated.

Good luck!