Stats Are Your Key

FOOTBALL –STATS ARE THE KEY

If you want to profit from football, at whatever level, you must do your research and then make an informed opinion based on how you interpret the information. Here are some key factors I think will improve your strike rate.

SPECIALISATION

If you become an expert in just the one area then you become almost “tuned in” to that area and your selections are likely to be more profitable.

Here are some areas of specialisation.

A SPECIFIC LEAGUE

Is your team in the Blue Square Premier League, or in the Premiership ? If you follow a team in the former league then you will have far more information and interest . A natural byproduct of this is the fact you’ll be in a position to take a better view on a particular game.

A SPECIFIC TEAM

Narrow your niche further by focussing just on the one team in a specific league. This can pay real dividends because by following and focussing on that team, their results, personnel, injuries, in fighting  you can gain an insight into their realistic chances ( not the chances the bookmaker gives). Is the forward line not firing at present? Is the defencse rock solid? Is your number 1 goalie injured? You get the idea!

The most obvious recent example was Chelsea , with injuries to key players, change in management, allowing you to change your betting to accommodate these changes.

A SPECIFIC MATCH TYPE

What do I mean? Well, do you focus purely on international matches, under 21’s internationals, FA Cup matches, League Cup matches, Champions League or UEFA Cup matches. If you make yourself an expert in one of these areas your decision making will be greatly improved.

A SPECIFIC BETTING MARKET

Do you focus on a specific betting market/strategy, or do you bet in  a flexible manner? By specifying your betting market and focussing on that, you can , again, increase your strike rate, because you will be “in tune” with the specific stats regarding that specific market.

It’s technically called the reticular activating system. It’s a fancy way of saying that you tend to notice things you focus on regularly . Eg if you’e just about to become a father, you might start noticing mothers and babies where once you’d dismissed them. It’s that idea I’m trying to get across here.

A SPECIFIC SECTOR OF A SPECIFIC MARKET

Let me give you an example

MATCH ODDS

Will you focus on backing, laying, or trading? If the latter, what strategy will become your niche. Personally, I tend to focus on backing short priced teams expected to win with the sole intention of trading out after they have scored the first goal in the in running market. By focussing on this strategy only, my mind focuses on short priced home teams whose games are in running. I then do additional research at web sites such as www.soccerstats.com and www.betdevil.com to determine recent form. I also look out for team news. Is the team I’m backing missing prominent strikers ( remember I want them to score first) Is the opposition team a bogey team?

By focussing solely on this strategy, I begin to notice likely games, such as Arsenal v Sunderland last week and Man Utd V Wigan ( although with the latter my research indicated that Wigan v Man Utd, historically, always seems to be a tight affair in the first half) – The 1st goal came to the team I expected to score first and I was able to trade out.

OVER 2.5/UNDER 2.5 GOALS MARKET (or a derivation thereof eg 3.5/4.5 or even 1.5 goals)

Your focus in these markets will be on goals scored by both teams home and away. If you make this your specialist market, then you will be interested in recent form ( are the goals flowing?),form of the forwards – are they injured, scoring freely, performing well?, head to heads – historically do these teams ,when they meet, produce goals? A good example is Liverpool v Chelsea – a raft of 1-0’s.

BOOKINGS MARKET

If you make this market your focus, then you will be interested in the referee’s stats, and the personnel of both teams.- eg Robbie Savage and Paul Scholes are generally nailed on yellow carders in certain games. Is the game a derby? Do both teams have a history of animosity? If we can marry this with the arbiter’s performance in dishing out reds and yellows, then we can be in a position to profit.

ARE THERE ANY RESOURCES TO HELP ME?

There are free resources on the internet which are free and invaluable and contain the stats you need whichever market you focus on. These are www.soccerstats.com and www.betdevil.com

One publication which costs is the Sports Statistician from Oxfordshire Press. It simply does all of the work for you and delivers you stats in every area, even how many blondes Sven Has taken to dinner in the last week! If you want to make you betting a niche, then this publication is superb value for money at only £39 per year in the first year.

Check it out at http://www.oxonpress.com/ourservices.html and take the free 3 month trial. It is an indispensible publication for me in my betting pursuits and is highly recommended if you want your stats to be professionally collected and formatted