Lay of The Day – Final Review

4th January 2012

Rating: Neutral

Hi Bloggers, Inspector Colin here, with the final review of Lay of The Day, published by ZeroHype.

In my introduction, I explained that Lay Of The Day was a tipping service, usually selecting one horse per day to lay (lose).  Advice was by e-mail, costing £15 per month, although there was a free week’s trial. The tipster, Darren, also operates a ratings service selecting winners, but this review only covers the Lay Of  The Day package.

The product offer was substantially tweaked on three occasions during the trial – as follows:

For the first 23 racing days, from 5th October to 14th November, the service was pretty much as laid out above, three days having two horses selected to lay. The recommended staking approach was to target a profit figure for each bet (1 point, 2.5 points or 5 points) – so the liability varied according to the odds achieved.

Day 24 saw a radical adjustment to the approach, in that Darren advised lay bets on both the “win” and “place” markets, and increased the number of races selected – up to 7 on one day.  Bets were only to be placed if the odds were below Betfair SP of 20.0.  Recommended staking changed to targeting a single point per race.

This approach only lasted 5 days, when the advice changed to advising “Win” lay bets, to a fixed liability of 20 points, based on Betfair SP. Bets would only be placed if the odds were 20 or below. The Betfair site allows the limit to be applied straightforwardly in advance of the races, so although the number of selections remained high, it was not too onerous to follow the advice.

This approach was maintained from 21st November to 16th December – Day 45 of the trial. At that point, Darren introduced another approach to selecting the bets, reducing the maximum odds to 16.0 and significantly increasing the number of selections each day. At this point we decided that continuing with the current trial would be meaningless, as the methodology being used now bore little relation to those used for the majority of the trial. I monitored 4 days results from this approach.

So what were the results? Well, as might be expected given the chopping and changing, overall the service made a loss during the trial period.

Recommended Stakes

Start balance                                      500 points

Days 1 to 23                                        Stake 309.47 points        Loss 11.63 points

Days 24 to 28 – Win Lay Bets       Stake 112.91 points          Loss 2.0 points

Days 24 to 28 – Place Lay bets    Stake 103.34 points          Loss 18.15

Days 29 to 45                                     Stake 560 points                 Gain 8.38

Days 46 to 49                                     Stake 440 points                 Loss 9.46

Total                                                      Stake 1525 points                Loss 32.86

Closing balance                                 467.14      (-6.5%)

Return on Liability                          -2.2%

Strike rate                                           82.7%

Fixed Liability (at 30 points per bet)

Opening balance 1000 points

Stake 3300 points,    Loss (-161.3) points.

ROI (-4.9)%. Bank (from 1000 start)  838.87 (down 16.1%).

On the face of it, Lay Of The Day should be a “Fail” – as overall it made a loss during the trial.  There is also the cost of the subscription to take into account.

However, we have decided to leave the door ajar and have decided to classify Lay Of The Day as “Neutral”, as the providers are clearly developing the product. I am also aware that in the 9 days since I stopped posting results, the results have been very positive – and given the high number of selections now being made, using the recommended stakes method the service would have been in profit over the whole of the trial period!

Whilst there is no validity in continuing to provide a service which is not running  profitably, had I shelled out for this service, I’m pretty sure I’d have been disgruntled to still be paying for a product which was effectively “under test” – whatever the results. On the other hand, the rest of the customer service was very good -  emails were delivered promptly, the instructions were always clear, and response to queries was always prompt and courteous.

Whilst the product was very easy to implement early on, it has become a little more time consuming with more selections – up to 21 in a day. This may have put some pressure on your betting bank, but Betfair does make SP laying using a maximum odds level quite straightforward. You certainly don’t need to be around during the racing – it can all be done in the morning.

So, a “Final” Review which unfortunately doesn’t provide a clear answer – and perhaps leaves the door open for a further look should the product offer become established on a long term footing.

Inspector Colin

[Click Here to View the Lay Of The Day sales page]

Insp Colin  Lay of the Day – Final Review Summary