Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder – Weeks 10 and 11

14th May 2012

Hi Inspector Colin here. This review is of the bonus Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder system which comes with the Little Acorns horse racing system, which is being reviewed separately. This applies a similar selection process to the football “Over/Under 2.5 goals” markets on Betfair, laying the favourite.

As with Little Acorns, the system relies upon the use of a Fibonacci staking system, accepting that there could be a number of consecutive “winners” (losing bets for us). I will monitor the results using this staking system and to level stakes.
Given that matches start at similar times, the staking system is usually applied on a daily basis, based upon the net gain for the day, rather than on a match by match basis, although I have been able to split days when the timing of the matches allows.

How has the system done? After 9 weeks we were ahead by 25 points using the staking system, and were 5.4 points up using level stakes.

Day 48.  Tuesday 1st May

5 selections, using 1 point stakes. 4 winners – so we made 2.8, hitting a new high of 204.6 points.

Day 49. Friday 4th April

Working all day Wednesday & Thursday, so Friday was the next day. 4 selections in 2 tranches, 2 winners, both in the first tranche. Hit a new high of 205.6 points.

Day 50 Saturday 5th April

A massive 23 selections, in 5 separate tranches (as matches were spread between lunchtime, afternoon, early evening, evening, late). Stakes for the first set were 1 point, 2 selections, both losers. 2 point stakes for the 2nd set of selections – 13 matches in all. Last day of the season for many of the selections – and we had only 2 matches where there were less than 3 goals. Suddenly, we’re 17.6 points down from our peak.

The 2 early evening matches have 3 point stakes – one winner. 5 selections from the evening kick offs, still at 3 points, but we lose another 2.5 points, so the final match uses 5 point stakes. It wins, so we’re back to 3 points tomorrow, having lost 14 points on the day, 7.3 points to level stakes.

You can see that with lots of selections in a day, the staking recovery system is becoming very complicated! Do you keep at 5 point stakes until you have recovered all of your losses, increasing the stakes if you continue to lose? Do you have staging points? I used the following approach:

High point 205.6 points.  Balance fell to 203.2 following 2 losing sets.Where the balance is below this, stake 2 points.

Balance after 2 point staking fell to 188.1 points. Stake 3 points if between this and 203.2.

Following losses on 3 point staking, balance fell to 185.9 points. Stake 5 points if below 188.1, 8 points if below 185.9.

Blimey, my head hurts! Much easier with one selection!

Day 51 – Sunday 6th May

Again lots of selections (13) from matches spread out throughout the day. 4 tranches. The first set had 4 selections, 3 of which were losers. We’re again up to 5 point staking, for the next set of 3 – and we gain 5.7 points from 2 winners. Back to 3 points staked – 2 winners from the next 3 selections, 1 from the next 3. We finish the day 1.1 points up on the day – still staking 3 points

Day 52 – 7th May

10 selections, 3 sets. The first selection loses – but we’re just above 188 points, so keep the stakes the same. There are 4 out of 6 winners from the next set, and 2 out of 3 winners from the next set. 6.3 points gained today, we’re up to 198 points.

Day 53 – 8th May

5 selections – only 1 winner. At 3 point stakes we end 7.3 points lower, giving back the gains over the last 2 days.

Day 54 – Thursday 10th May

9 selections, 4 winners – so another 1.9 points lost. Down close to the 5 point staking level…..

Day 55 – Friday 11th May

3 selections. The first was an afternoon game, which lost, taking us below 188.1 points. 5 points staked on the next 2 games – and we lost both. The balance is now 178.6 points. Up to 8 points staking tomorrow.

Day 56 – Saturday 12th May

At any high staking level (per point), this attempt to recover recent losses would be getting expensive. Just 1 set of selections – 7 matches at 8 points each. Lo and behold, we have only 1 miserable winner! Balance is down to 144 points, and we need to stake 13 points tomorrow.

Day 57 – Sunday 13th May

5 early kick offs selected, 3 winners, and we recover 15.7 points. Still at 13 points staked per game though.

3 afternoon games followed – and luckily all 3 were winners! The recovery plan does what we hoped for – and we’re back up to 196.8 points. Phew!!!

Thankfully we can get back to low staking levels – 3 points per match, and we have 3 evening matches. Bizarrely all 3 end 1 – 0, and we’ve had 8 consecutive winners, to hit a new high point of 208.2 points.

Staking Plan:

Opening Balance  176.0     Profit to date  32.2 points     Closing Bank:  208.2

Level Stakes:

Opening Balance  176.0     Loss to date  (0.8) points     Closing Bank:  175.2

Hit rate:  48%,   Return on Investment 5%,   Average odds layed @ 1.87

So our lucky run with higher stakes ran out this week, only to be rescued on the last day. The level stakes negative return and ROI of only 5% present a more sobering picture. One more week of the trial to go – although of course most of the decent leagues have finished.

Insp Colin reviews Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder

See the Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder sales page here….

Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder – Week 9

1st May 2012

Hi Inspector Colin here. This review is of the bonus Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder system which comes with the Little Acorns horse racing system, which Inspector Johnny is currently reviewing. This applies a similar selection process to the football “Over/Under 2.5 goals” markets on Betfair, laying the favourite.

As with Little Acorns, the system relies upon the use of a Fibonacci staking system, accepting that there could be a number of consecutive “winners” (losing bets for us). I will monitor the results using this staking system and to level stakes.
Given that matches start at similar times, the staking system is usually applied on a daily basis, based upon the net gain for the day, rather than on a match by match basis, although I have been able to split days when the timing of the matches allows.

Anyway, how has the system done? After 8 weeks we were ahead by 21 points using the staking system, and were 2.5 points up using level stakes.

Day 44.  Monday 23rd April

2 selections, using 2 point stakes. 1 win, one loss. 2 points staking carried on.

Day 45. Tuesday 24th April

Unusually, no selections

Day 46. Wednesday 25th April

2 selections, in 2 tranches. Both turned out to be winners, so we recovered our losses, and hit a new high point of 200.9 points. Back to single point stakes again.

I had some time away, so the next game was Monday 30th April. We had a single selection – the Manchester Derby. Unless you have no interest in football at all, you will know that this ended 1 – 0, and was another winner

5 bets placed this week, gaining 4.86 points on 8.1 points risked.

Staking Plan:

Opening Balance  176.0     Profit to date  25.8 points     Closing Bank:  201.8

Level Stakes:

Opening Balance  176.0     Profit to date  5.4 points     Closing Bank:  181.4

Hit rate:  49%,   Return on Investment 9%,   Average odds layed @ 1.88

We seem to be  lucky when the stakes are increased, and haven’t taken very long to recover losses / return to the peak position. By chance, the hit rate when stakes are >1 are 60% – much higher than the 49% achieved overall  - hence the gain on recommended stakes, whilst the gain to level stakes is relatively low.

Insp Colin reviews Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder

See the Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder sales page here….

Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder – Week 8

23rd April 2012

Hi Inspector Colin here. This review is of the bonus Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder system which comes with the Little Acorns horse racing system, which Inspector Johnny is currently reviewing. This applies a similar selection process to the football “Over/Under 2.5 goals” markets on Betfair, laying the favourite.

As with Little Acorns, the system relies upon the use of a Fibonacci staking system, accepting that there could be a number of consecutive “winners” (losing bets for us). I will monitor the results using this staking system and to level stakes.
Given that matches start at similar times, the staking system is usually applied on a daily basis, based upon the net gain for the day, rather than on a match by match basis, although I have been able to split days when the timing of the matches allows.

Anyway, how has the system done? After 7 weeks we were ahead by 22 points using the staking system, and were 7 points up using level stakes.

Day 39.  Monday 16th April

7 selections, in two tranches, with only 2 winning bets. 2 point stakes tomorrow. Down to 195.5 points

Day 40. Tuesday 17th April

6 selections in 2 tranches. Both tranches made  small gains, with 2 point stakes, but not back to the high point.

Day 41. Wednesday 18th April

6 selections in 3 tranches. The first 2 tranches won, with 3 out of 5 selections winning, and we got back to our previous high point, so reverted to 1 point stakes for the final selection, which lost.  We are on 197.2 points using the staking plan, and 179.8 points on level stakes.

Day 42. Friday 20th April

9 selections – again in 3 tranches. The first was a single selection, which lost. On to 2 point stakes for the next tranche of 5. Again, our lucky streak of winning tranches at higher stakes continued, and we won 3 out of 5 – increasing the bank to 198.6. Back to 1 point stakes for the last 3 selections, where we had 2 wins, and a bank of 199.7

Day 43. Saturday 21st April.

16 selections in 3 tranches. The first comprised just the Arsenal v Chelsea game, which was a winner, taking us to a new high point of 200.7 points. The next tranche comprised 10 afternoon games, with 4 wins, 6 losses, whilst the final tranche of  5 only had one winner. On to 2 point stakes tomorrow then……………

44 bets placed this week, losing 1.3 points on 52.56 points risked.

Staking Plan:

Opening Balance  176.0     Profit to date  21.0 points     Closing Bank:  197.0

Level Stakes:

Opening Balance  176.0     Profit to date  2.5 points     Closing Bank:  178.5

Hit rate:  48%,   Return on Investment 7%,   Average odds layed @ 1.88

We seem to be getting lucky when the stakes are increased, and haven’t taken very long to recover losses / return to the peak position. By chance, the hit rate when stakes are >1 are much higher than the 50% achieved overall – hence the gain on recommended stakes, whilst the gain to level stakes is low.

Insp Colin reviews Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder

See the Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder sales page here….