Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder – Weeks 10 and 11
14th May 2012
Hi Inspector Colin here. This review is of the bonus Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder system which comes with the Little Acorns horse racing system, which is being reviewed separately. This applies a similar selection process to the football “Over/Under 2.5 goals” markets on Betfair, laying the favourite.
As with Little Acorns, the system relies upon the use of a Fibonacci staking system, accepting that there could be a number of consecutive “winners” (losing bets for us). I will monitor the results using this staking system and to level stakes.
Given that matches start at similar times, the staking system is usually applied on a daily basis, based upon the net gain for the day, rather than on a match by match basis, although I have been able to split days when the timing of the matches allows.
How has the system done? After 9 weeks we were ahead by 25 points using the staking system, and were 5.4 points up using level stakes.
Day 48. Tuesday 1st May
5 selections, using 1 point stakes. 4 winners – so we made 2.8, hitting a new high of 204.6 points.
Day 49. Friday 4th April
Working all day Wednesday & Thursday, so Friday was the next day. 4 selections in 2 tranches, 2 winners, both in the first tranche. Hit a new high of 205.6 points.
Day 50 Saturday 5th April
A massive 23 selections, in 5 separate tranches (as matches were spread between lunchtime, afternoon, early evening, evening, late). Stakes for the first set were 1 point, 2 selections, both losers. 2 point stakes for the 2nd set of selections – 13 matches in all. Last day of the season for many of the selections – and we had only 2 matches where there were less than 3 goals. Suddenly, we’re 17.6 points down from our peak.
The 2 early evening matches have 3 point stakes – one winner. 5 selections from the evening kick offs, still at 3 points, but we lose another 2.5 points, so the final match uses 5 point stakes. It wins, so we’re back to 3 points tomorrow, having lost 14 points on the day, 7.3 points to level stakes.
You can see that with lots of selections in a day, the staking recovery system is becoming very complicated! Do you keep at 5 point stakes until you have recovered all of your losses, increasing the stakes if you continue to lose? Do you have staging points? I used the following approach:
High point 205.6 points. Balance fell to 203.2 following 2 losing sets.Where the balance is below this, stake 2 points.
Balance after 2 point staking fell to 188.1 points. Stake 3 points if between this and 203.2.
Following losses on 3 point staking, balance fell to 185.9 points. Stake 5 points if below 188.1, 8 points if below 185.9.
Blimey, my head hurts! Much easier with one selection!
Day 51 – Sunday 6th May
Again lots of selections (13) from matches spread out throughout the day. 4 tranches. The first set had 4 selections, 3 of which were losers. We’re again up to 5 point staking, for the next set of 3 – and we gain 5.7 points from 2 winners. Back to 3 points staked – 2 winners from the next 3 selections, 1 from the next 3. We finish the day 1.1 points up on the day – still staking 3 points
Day 52 – 7th May
10 selections, 3 sets. The first selection loses – but we’re just above 188 points, so keep the stakes the same. There are 4 out of 6 winners from the next set, and 2 out of 3 winners from the next set. 6.3 points gained today, we’re up to 198 points.
Day 53 – 8th May
5 selections – only 1 winner. At 3 point stakes we end 7.3 points lower, giving back the gains over the last 2 days.
Day 54 – Thursday 10th May
9 selections, 4 winners – so another 1.9 points lost. Down close to the 5 point staking level…..
Day 55 – Friday 11th May
3 selections. The first was an afternoon game, which lost, taking us below 188.1 points. 5 points staked on the next 2 games – and we lost both. The balance is now 178.6 points. Up to 8 points staking tomorrow.
Day 56 – Saturday 12th May
At any high staking level (per point), this attempt to recover recent losses would be getting expensive. Just 1 set of selections – 7 matches at 8 points each. Lo and behold, we have only 1 miserable winner! Balance is down to 144 points, and we need to stake 13 points tomorrow.
Day 57 – Sunday 13th May
5 early kick offs selected, 3 winners, and we recover 15.7 points. Still at 13 points staked per game though.
3 afternoon games followed – and luckily all 3 were winners! The recovery plan does what we hoped for – and we’re back up to 196.8 points. Phew!!!
Thankfully we can get back to low staking levels – 3 points per match, and we have 3 evening matches. Bizarrely all 3 end 1 – 0, and we’ve had 8 consecutive winners, to hit a new high point of 208.2 points.
Staking Plan:
Opening Balance 176.0 Profit to date 32.2 points Closing Bank: 208.2
Level Stakes:
Opening Balance 176.0 Loss to date (0.8) points Closing Bank: 175.2
Hit rate: 48%, Return on Investment 5%, Average odds layed @ 1.87
So our lucky run with higher stakes ran out this week, only to be rescued on the last day. The level stakes negative return and ROI of only 5% present a more sobering picture. One more week of the trial to go – although of course most of the decent leagues have finished.
Insp Colin reviews Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder
See the Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder sales page here….
Written by on May 14th, 2012. 
Passed with 5/5 Stars!
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Passed with 4.5/5 stars!
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Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder – Week 9
1st May 2012
Hi Inspector Colin here. This review is of the bonus Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder system which comes with the Little Acorns horse racing system, which Inspector Johnny is currently reviewing. This applies a similar selection process to the football “Over/Under 2.5 goals” markets on Betfair, laying the favourite.
As with Little Acorns, the system relies upon the use of a Fibonacci staking system, accepting that there could be a number of consecutive “winners” (losing bets for us). I will monitor the results using this staking system and to level stakes.
Given that matches start at similar times, the staking system is usually applied on a daily basis, based upon the net gain for the day, rather than on a match by match basis, although I have been able to split days when the timing of the matches allows.
Anyway, how has the system done? After 8 weeks we were ahead by 21 points using the staking system, and were 2.5 points up using level stakes.
Day 44. Monday 23rd April
2 selections, using 2 point stakes. 1 win, one loss. 2 points staking carried on.
Day 45. Tuesday 24th April
Unusually, no selections
Day 46. Wednesday 25th April
2 selections, in 2 tranches. Both turned out to be winners, so we recovered our losses, and hit a new high point of 200.9 points. Back to single point stakes again.
I had some time away, so the next game was Monday 30th April. We had a single selection – the Manchester Derby. Unless you have no interest in football at all, you will know that this ended 1 – 0, and was another winner
5 bets placed this week, gaining 4.86 points on 8.1 points risked.
Staking Plan:
Opening Balance 176.0 Profit to date 25.8 points Closing Bank: 201.8
Level Stakes:
Opening Balance 176.0 Profit to date 5.4 points Closing Bank: 181.4
Hit rate: 49%, Return on Investment 9%, Average odds layed @ 1.88
We seem to be lucky when the stakes are increased, and haven’t taken very long to recover losses / return to the peak position. By chance, the hit rate when stakes are >1 are 60% – much higher than the 49% achieved overall - hence the gain on recommended stakes, whilst the gain to level stakes is relatively low.
Insp Colin reviews Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder
See the Little Acorns Football Bankbuilder sales page here….
Written by on May 1st, 2012.
Passed with 5/5 Stars!
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By The Book Rating:
Passed with 4.5/5 stars!
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Beaten Females Final Review
Although it made a small profit using level stakes it made quite a big loss using the advised staking plan so I have put Beaten Females in the failed section.
At last the Final Review for the Beaten Females, the service run by Sam McCallion, based on laying female horses in Irish racing. I let the review run to 84 betting days to give the Level Stakes system a chance, but when you consider there were possibly 210 betting days since the start on 8 September 2011, it only illustrates how infrequent the bets came along.
The methodology of using the system is really simple and literally took minutes to find selections, or not, realising that not every Irish race in the system’s parameters contained a qualifying race or a qualifying female horse. There were times when a week went by without any qualifying races. Certainly not one for the ‘get-rich-quick’ boys, more for those adding to a portfolio of systems. Having said that, there were times when three or four would turn up at once, akin to the proverbial London ’bus.
The author recommended two staking systems: Level Stakes and a 5% Rolling Bank. I operated both for the purposes of this review with a 500-point opening bank for each. Level Stakes used a 1% stake throughout and the Rolling Bank 5%. The latter took 5% of the starting bank as stake then calculated 5% of the bank after every betting day to establish the stake for the following day selections. Both systems, quite obviously, mirrored each other in results, apart from the fact that the stakes were vastly different. Whereas the Level Stakes always used a five-point lay, the Rolling Stakes started off five times that amount and more than doubled in size as the early successes came along.
Rolling Stakes became quite scary as an initial good run lasted for 12 days and the 20th bet had a stake of 55.54 points. Along came black Day 13, the first loser and 250 points knocked off the 663.7 points amassed since the start. There was a recovery over the next two days, then another big loss before recovering again only to drift along in steady decline and by the 40th day had gone into recession, never to recover, finishing with a 126.59 point loss.
| 5% Rolling Stakes points profits for every ten days |
In contrast, Level Stakes did not make a loss until the 68th day, was back in profit on Day 74, fell to its lowest deficit of 21.72 points on Day 78, then recovered slowly to close with a profit of 44.78 points.
1% Level Stakes points profits for every ten days
Personally I would rule out using a 5% Rolling Bank at all, based on the high liability and the performance during this review. Level Stakes reached 85.5 points profit at its peak but did not make steady progress. It just seemed to lope along and did not even cover the £57 membership fee by the finish. To be a successful system you have to look at long-term profits. Everything seemed to be going fine in the early stages but it never made any sustainable progress after the infamous Day 13.
Reporting profits and losses as above is all very fine but there are a few problems yet to be mentioned. The Irish racing does not attract anywhere near as much investment as the UK racing and so therefore the liquidity is never going to be as good. There was an email service for the first year of this service which claims to send out tips around 11pm the previous night, this is not always so, sometimes the day before’s tip are still displayed. The idea of an early tip is to get on at the best price, I imagined, but only around 20% have been below the 6.8 top price threshold in the evening. Most of them never get below that figure. Also, as the results use the Betfair starting price, it would seem logical to lay them nearer the off. I did lay the tips myself, but only with very small amounts so I can make sure the 6.8 threshold is actually reached when they are sent out above the threshold, but with 200 copies of the system already sold and the prospect of further copies now being made available to readers following this review, it would seem unlikely, bearing in mind the way the size of the stake has increased since the start, that all those people investing in a particular horse would be able to get bets matched at that liquidity.
Another worrying factor is the Beaten Females site is no longer active and the blog has comments on it that are over 200 days old.
Admin Note
We’ve tried to contact Sam McCallion and Inspector John has had an email from him to say he has withdrawn from the betting market completely so the system is no longer for sale or supported.
Inspector John reviewing Beaten Females
Written by on Apr 30th, 2012. Comment.
Passed with 5/5 Stars!
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Passed with 4.5/5 stars!
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