Assured Soccer Profits – Final Review Summary

8th December 2011

Passed 

Insp Rich Reviews Assured Soccer Profits

Assured Soccer Profits (ASP) is from the John Duncan stable and promises slow and steady results, rather than instant riches. It costs £89 (including vat) and for this you get a 90-page PDF manual (there is now a cut-down introductory manual), a stake calculator and twenty videos. Although £89 may seem on the expensive side, I have rarely seen so much quality information accompanying a system/strategy.

After studying the manual you must go to the member’s website, to study the videos. Personally I prefer the longer manual it is more thorough – my only criticism of it was that it was long and I advised you to make notes so that you don’t have to go over and over it. So I suppose the cut-down manual helps in that respect.

From the member’s site you will see that some users find it a little hard to work the strategy for profit, just as I did at the start of the review. There is no shortcut; you need to study all the info and all the help. The vendors, Geoff and John post a lot of info – you should pick your way through it and paper trade until you get the hang of a strategy that works for you. Largely this will depend on how risk-averse you are.

As a trader I am nothing like as brave as Geoff or John and this initially caused some e-mail difficulty with John over my review. But I found my own way, from the materials, that suited me and produced regular profit. Don’t expect profit to be handed to you on a plate. You will have to work and study, so this product will not suit everybody.

The recommended starting bank is £200. What you basically do is lay certain scenarios on Betfair and it is suggested that you close out the bets at or before half time, for, hopefully, a profit. Things will sometimes go wrong and one of the things the author does is teach you not to panic and to recover as best you can when they do go wrong. All users of ASP will trade at slightly different times and you pick matches where there is plenty of liquidity, so you should have no problem having your bets matched.

The aim is to make around £4 per match with modest stakes. My average worked out at less (£1.57) due to my inherent caution.

The Assured Soccer Profits manual and videos go into a lot of detail about calculating your bets to trade out on the match and it comes complete with a calculator. The spreadsheet/calculator is very good and thorough at optimizing your bets. There are also several Betfair interfaces that will work these things out for you.

I like the common-sense approach of the manual – for example it says that “some games WILL go wrong. Just both ACCEPT that and EXPECT that before you start using this system”.

The strategy is purely mathematical with no study of form. The match selection is based entirely upon the odds offered and liquidity of the market.

Please don’t ask me for specifics of my strategy/variation of ASP – that would not be fair to purchasers of ASP. What I did in my trading is discussed on the ASP member site in the “Geoff’s Diary” section under the title “….. (At Half Time) Revisited”

I have stopped this review after 56 days as it is quite obvious that statistically the profit would continue if I continued the same strategy up to 84 days.

Here are all the results from day 1 (27/8/2011) to day 56 (7/12/2011) Profits are after my 4.8% Betfair commission The Assured Soccer Profits spreadsheet works upwards, with the latest match results at the top. We started with a 200 point balance.

Team 1	Team 2	Result				Won	Lost	Tot. P/L	Balance	Av/match	Av/day	Days
Inter	CSKA	1	-	2		6.26		224.07	424.07	£1.57	£4.00	56
Olympiakos	Arsenal	3	-	1			-5.00	217.81	417.81	£1.53	£3.96	55
APOEL	Shakhtar	0	-	2		8.57		222.81	422.81	£1.58	£4.05	55
Reims	Nantes	3	-	1		6.74		214.24	414.24	£1.53	£3.97	54
Hapoel	Maccabi	3	-	0		5.71		207.50	407.50	£1.49	£3.84	54
Evian	Valencienne	2	-	1		8.57		201.79	401.79	£1.46	£3.81	53
Vaslui	Lazio	0	-	0			-3.00	193.22	393.22	£1.41	£3.72	52
Stoke	Dinamo	1	-	1			-5.56	196.22	396.22	£1.44	£3.77	52
Red Bull	PSG	2	-	0			-4.50	201.78	401.78	£1.49	£3.88	52
Tel Aviv	Besiktas	2	-	3		7.75		206.28	406.28	£1.54	£3.97	52
Twente	Fulham	1	-	0			-3.00	198.53	398.53	£1.49	£3.82	52
Vorskla	Copenhagen	1	-	1			-3.50	201.53	401.53	£1.53	£3.95	51
Standard	Hannover	2	-	0		8.57		205.03	405.03	£1.57	£4.02	51
Rapid Bucharest	Hapoel	1	-	3			-7.50	196.46	396.46	£1.51	£3.85	51
Legia	PSV	0	-	3		3.65		203.96	403.96	£1.58	£4.00	51
Napoli	Juventus	3	-	3			-4.41	200.31	400.31	£1.56	£4.01	50
Chelsea	Liverpool	0	-	2		8.57		204.72	404.72	£1.61	£4.09	50
Zaragoza	Sevilla	0	-	1			-2.56	196.15	396.15	£1.56	£4.00	49
Liverpool	Man City	1	-	1			-2.64	198.71	398.71	£1.59	£4.06	49
Sienna	Inter	0	-	1			-3.95	201.35	401.35	£1.62	£4.11	49
Palermo	Fiorentina	2	-	0		8.57		205.30	405.30	£1.67	£4.19	49
Cagliari	Bologna	1	-	1			-2.55	196.73	396.73	£1.61	£4.01	49
Swansea	Villa	0	-	0			-3.12	199.28	399.28	£1.65	£4.07	49
Lille	Brest	2	-	0			-4.64	202.40	402.40	£1.69	£4.22	48
Lazio	Juventus	0	-	1			-4.64	207.04	407.04	£1.74	£4.31	48
Atalanta	Napoli	1	-	1		8.57		211.68	411.68	£1.79	£4.41	48
Udinese	Roma	2	-	0			-2.55	203.11	403.11	£1.74	£4.32	47
Shakhtar	Porto	0	-	2			-2.45	205.66	405.66	£1.77	£4.47	46
Levekusen	Chelsea	2	-	1		8.57		208.11	408.11	£1.81	£4.52	46
Arsenal	Dortmund	2	-	1		8.57		199.54	399.54	£1.75	£4.34	46
BATE	Plzen	0	-	1		8.57		190.97	390.97	£1.69	£4.15	46
Trabzonspor	Inter	1	-	1			-2.55	182.40	382.40	£1.63	£4.05	45
CSKA	Lille	0	-	2		7.47		184.95	384.95	£1.67	£4.11	45
Santabder	Malaga	1	-	3		7.28		177.48	377.48	£1.61	£4.03	44
AGF	Silkborg	0	-	2			-2.12	170.20	370.20	£1.56	£3.87	44
Brest	Sochaux	2	-	0			-2.55	172.32	372.32	£1.60	£4.01	43
Chelsea	Liverpool	1	-	2		7.57		174.87	374.87	£1.63	£4.07	43
Osasuna	Rayo	0	-	0			-1.87	167.30	367.30	£1.58	£3.89	43
Gijon	Getafe	2	-	1		8.57		169.17	369.17	£1.61	£3.93	43
Villareal	Betis	1	-	0			-2.31	160.60	360.60	£1.54	£3.82	42
Wigan	Blackburn	3	-	3			-0.06	162.91	362.91	£1.58	£3.88	42
Sunderland	Fulham	0	-	0			-3.23	162.97	362.97	£1.60	£3.88	42
Lyon	Rennes	1	-	2		4.90		166.20	366.20	£1.65	£4.05	41
Fulham	Tottenham	1	-	3		5.71		161.30	361.30	£1.61	£4.03	40
Bolton	Stoke	5	-	0			-1.74	155.59	355.59	£1.57	£3.89	40
Wolves	Wigan	3	-	1		5.71		157.33	357.33	£1.61	£3.93	40
Frankfurt	Rostock	0	-	0			-3.00	151.62	351.62	£1.56	£3.79	40
Betis	Mallaga	0	-	0			-4.27	154.62	354.62	£1.61	£3.96	39
Mallorca	Sevilla	0	-	0			-3.00	158.89	358.89	£1.67	£4.07	39
Portsmouth	Notts Forest	3	-	0		6.85		161.89	361.89	£1.72	£4.15	39
Steaua	Maccabi	4	-	2			-12.60	155.04	355.04	£1.67	£4.08	38
Birmingham	Brugge	2	-	2		6.10		167.64	367.64	£1.82	£4.41	38
Watford	Brighton	1	-	0			-1.00	161.54	361.54	£1.78	£4.37	37
Notts Forest	Reading	1	-	0		8.57		162.54	362.54	£1.81	£4.39	37
Reggina	Torino	0	-	1			-3.00	153.97	353.97	£1.73	£4.16	37
PAOK	Panathinaikos	1	-	3		7.00		156.97	356.97	£1.78	£4.36	36
Inter	Juventus	1	-	2		6.95		149.97	349.97	£1.72	£4.28	35
Villareal	Rayo	2	-	0			-3.00	143.02	343.02	£1.66	£4.09	35
Sunderland	Villa	2	-	2		8.57		146.02	346.02	£1.72	£4.17	35
Birmingham	Brighton	0	-	0			-1.60	137.45	337.45	£1.64	£3.93	35
Cesena	Cagliari	1	-	1		6.31		139.05	339.05	£1.68	£4.09	34
Boulogna	Nantes	2	-	1			-1.55	132.74	332.74	£1.62	£4.02	33
Dinamo Moscow	Rubin Kazan	0	-	2		7.71		134.29	334.29	£1.66	£4.07	33
Gijon	Grenada	2	-	0		1.20		126.58	326.58	£1.58	£3.96	32
Aston Villa	West Brom	1	-	2		4.00		125.38	325.38	£1.59	£3.92	32
Tottenham	Rubin Kazan	1	-	0			-2.77	121.38	321.38	£1.56	£3.92	31
Rapid Bucharest	Legia	0	-	1		8.57		124.15	324.15	£1.61	£4.00	31
Marseille	Arsenal	0	-	1			-2.70	115.58	315.58	£1.52	£3.85	30
Leverkusen	Valencia	2	-	1		2.87		118.28	318.28	£1.58	£3.94	30
Denizlispor	Konyaspor	1	-	2		11.42		115.41	315.41	£1.56	£3.85	30
Newcastle	Tottenham	2	-	2		7.37		103.99	303.99	£1.42	£3.59	29
Atalanta	Udinese	0	-	0			-1.00	96.62	296.62	£1.34	£3.33	29
Wigan	Bolton	1	-	3		6.75		97.62	297.62	£1.37	£3.49	28
Stoke	Fulham	2	-	0			-0.90	90.87	290.87	£1.30	£3.25	28
Liverpool	Man Utd	1	-	1		8.43		91.77	291.77	£1.33	£3.28	28
Doncaster	Leeds United	0	-	3		4.20		83.34	283.34	£1.23	£3.09	27
Sweden	Netherlands	3	-	2			-0.55	79.14	279.14	£1.18	£3.04	26
Denmark	Portugal	2	-	1		5.81		79.69	279.69	£1.21	£3.07	26
Bulgaria	Wales	0	-	1		6.66		73.88	273.88	£1.14	£2.84	26
Turkey	Germany	1	-	3		6.89		67.22	267.22	£1.05	£2.69	25
Slovakia	Russia	0	-	1			-0.75	60.33	260.33	£0.96	£2.41	25
Paris St-G	Lyon	2	-	0		0.31		61.08	261.08	£0.99	£2.55	24
Juventus	AC Milan	2	-	0			-2.10	60.77	260.77	£1.00	£2.53	24
Lille	Rennes	2	-	0		7.12		62.87	262.87	£1.05	£2.62	24
Austria Vienna	Red Bull	3	-	2		11.42		55.75	255.75	£0.94	£2.32	24
Hearts	Celtic	2	-	0		8.17		44.33	244.33	£0.76	£1.85	24
Valencia	Chelsea	1	-	1		5.71		36.16	236.16	£0.63	£1.57	23
Middlesborough	Leicester	0	-	0			-2.24	30.45	230.45	£0.54	£1.32	23
Marseille	Dortmund	3	-	0		3.05		32.69	232.69	£0.59	£1.42	23
Hibs	St Johnstone	3	-	2		8.57		29.64	229.64	£0.55	£1.29	23
Cardiff	Southampton	2	-	1			-2.40	21.07	221.07	£0.40	£0.92	23
Napoli	Villareal	2	-	0			-8.28	23.47	223.47	£0.45	£1.07	22
Derby	Barnsley	1	-	1		8.57		31.75	231.75	£0.62	£1.44	22
Burnley	Forest	5	-	1			-2.12	23.18	223.18	£0.46	£1.05	22
Norwich	Sunderland	2	-	1		5.71		25.30	225.30	£0.52	£1.20	21
Getafe	Betis	1	-	0		5.71		19.59	219.59	£0.41	£0.93	21
Galatasaray	Eskishehirspor	2	-	0		6.80		13.88	213.88	£0.30	£0.66	21
Newcastle	Blackburn	3	-	1		5.15		7.08	207.08	£0.15	£0.35	20
Porto	Benfica	2	-	2		6.05		1.93	201.93	£0.04	£0.10	19
Betis	Zaragoza	4	-	3		1.36		-4.12	195.88	-£0.09	-£0.23	18
Espanyol	Getafe	1	-	0			-1.42	-5.48	194.52	-£0.13	-£0.30	18
Roma	Sienna	1	-	1		5.72		-4.06	195.94	-£0.10	-£0.23	18
Rennes	Nancy	1	-	1		1.72		-9.78	190.22	-£0.24	-£0.58	17
Bologna	Lecce	0	-	2		8.58		-11.50	188.50	-£0.29	-£0.68	17
Tottenham	Liverpool	4	-	0			-9.95	-20.08	179.92	-£0.51	-£1.18	17
Rangers	Celtic	4	-	2			-0.75	-10.13	189.87	-£0.27	-£0.60	17
Inter	Roma	0	-	0		1.43		-9.38	190.62	-£0.25	-£0.59	16
Fulham	Twente	1	-	1		6.43		-10.81	189.19	-£0.30	-£0.72	15
Ajax	Lyon	0	-	0		0.14		-17.24	182.76	-£0.49	-£1.23	14
Plzen	BATE	1	-	1			-0.38	-17.38	182.62	-£0.51	-£1.34	13
Catania	Sienna	0	-	0		0.60		-17.00	183.00	-£0.52	-£1.42	12
Betis	Mallorca	1	-	0			-0.45	-17.60	182.40	-£0.55	-£1.47	12
Cesena	Napoli	1	-	3		4.08		-17.15	182.85	-£0.55	-£1.56	11
Augsburg	Leverkusen	1	-	4			-8.04	-21.23	178.77	-£0.71	-£2.12	10
Romania	France	0	-	0			-14.70	-13.19	186.81	-£0.45	-£1.47	9
Denmark	Norway	2	-	0		7.00		1.51	201.51	£0.05	£0.17	9
Jordon	China	2	-	1		2.00		-5.49	194.51	-£0.20	-£0.61	9
Russia	Rep Ireland	0	-	0			-20.10	-7.49	192.51	-£0.29	-£0.83	9
Torino	Varese	2	-	0			-2.70	12.61	212.61	£0.50	£1.58	8
Deportivo	Hercules	0	-	1		3.81		15.31	215.31	£0.64	£1.91	8
Ascoli	Vincenza	1	-	1		7.91		11.50	211.50	£0.50	£1.44	8
Sligo	Derry	1	-	1		6.67		3.59	203.59	£0.16	£0.51	7
Bulgaria	England	0	-	3		5.11		-3.08	196.92	-£0.15	-£0.51	6
Lens	Evian	1	-	0		2.86		-8.19	191.81	-£0.41	-£1.64	5
Sedan	Nantes	2	-	0		6.67		-11.05	188.95	-£0.58	-£2.76	4
Le Mans	Ajaccio	1	-	0		2.86		-17.72	182.28	-£0.98	-£4.43	4
Caen	Brest	3	-	4		6.67		-20.58	179.42	-£1.21	-£5.15	4
Lens	Monaco	2	-	2		9.53		-27.25	172.75	-£1.70	-£9.08	3
Steubal	Braga	0	-	1			-3.40	-36.78	163.22	-£2.45	-£12.26	3
Darlington	Lincoln	3	-	1			-16.00	-33.38	166.62	-£2.38	-£11.13	3
Toulouse	Paris StG	1	-	3			-4.00	-17.38	182.62	-£1.34	-£8.69	2
Hearts	Hibernain	2	-	0			-3.55	-13.38	186.62	-£1.12	-£6.69	2
Watford	Birmingahm	2	-	2		8.05	0.00	-9.83	190.17	-£0.89	-£4.92	2
Hannover	Mainz	1	-	1		11.10	0.00	-17.88	182.12	-£1.79	-£8.94	2
Tottenham	Man City	1	-	5		2.20	0.00	-28.98	171.02	-£3.22	-£14.49	2
Newcastle	Fulham	2	-	1			-9.27	-31.18	168.82	-£3.90	-£15.59	2
Nottm Forest	West Ham	1	-	4			-22.50	-21.91	178.09	-£3.13	-£10.96	2
Atletico	Olimpo	3	-	1		7.43	0.00	0.59	200.59	£0.10	£0.59	1
Granada	Betis	0	-	1			-4.70	-6.84	193.16	-£1.37	-£6.84	1
Mattersburg	Inssbruck	1	-	1			-3.06	-2.14	197.86	-£0.54	-£2.14	1
Leverkusen	Dortmund	0	-	0			-3.29	0.92	200.92	£0.31	£0.92	1
Gijon	Sociadad	1	-	2		7.91	0.00	4.21	204.21	£2.11	£4.21	1
Alcorcon	Xerez	0	-	1			-3.70	-3.70	196.30	-£3.70	£4.28	1

Here is a graph of the Profit/Loss:

So those are the results that I obtained from studying the strategy and the members website. Your results will be different. All I can say is that I managed to study the materials and turn a profit. This product is not a quick route to guaranteed profit, but if you work at it, you can become successful. Certainly there is plenty of help in the member’s area.

As you can see from the graph and spreadsheet, above, it took me a while to become profitable. I started to refine my particular application of the ASP training around Day 11 when my losses were running at -£21.23. I further refined it on Day 24 when the profit was running at £44.33. Since then the profit steadily rose, on average.

Recommended staking plan:
Start Balance: 200 points
Total P/L: +224.07 points
Running Balance: 424.07 points

In total there were 143 trades; 79 winning trades; 64 losing trades; a strike rate of 55%; average profit per win is £6.29; average loss per loser is -£4.26. With these figures you can see exactly why it was profitable:- more wins than losses and the average profit greater than the average loss.

The maximum profit on any one trade was £11.42. The maximum loss was -£22.50 but that was before I developed my strategy, after that the max loss was -£16.00.

This is basically a laying strategy and you trade out for a profit or to minimize losses. From the above max losses you can see what the liability has been in practice. My basic lay stakes were £3 and £6. For the odds layed I had a maximum liability of £75 but the actual risk was never more than £22.50.

I haven’t found this an easy or enjoyable strategy to follow. One of my main concerns has been that I found I was watching matches with some anxiety for often well into the second half. Until you trade out your exit strategies, there is a worrying potential for a huge loss. It never happened, but the potential for it to happen is often there. It was rare to find a match which easily gave me the profit. Nevertheless, on average it did give me a profit and at the end of the day that is perhaps all that matters.

Here are my ratings for Assured Soccer Profits:

• Profitability: compared to liquidity needed – A £200 start bank has produced £224.07 profit – over 100%, which is excellent. The most I ever had tied up in a trade was £75. I rate profitability at 4 out of 5;
• Ease of use: Finding matches is easy and with the spreadsheet/calculator it is easy to work out your exit points or you can use a Betfair interface to do the calculations for you. BUT there is a lot to study and it takes time to grasp a way to apply the strategy that suits you. I rate ease of use at 2 out of 5;
• Risk; The bank was never under threat with the max risk being 22.50. But many matches had a worrying potential for a large loss. I rate risk at 3 out of 5;
• Return on investment (ROI); Not really relevant as you trade out to reduce losses.
• Support and documentation; Excellent. Geoff and John work hard to support the product. I rate support at 4 out of 5;
• Time needed to apply the system: It only takes about 30 seconds to check a match. On busy days there may be a lot of matches to check so it can take up to half an hour before kick offs. You do need to watch your bets in-play and there can be many anxious periods during the match. I rate time needed at 1 out of 5;

Overall I give Assured Soccer Profits a rating of 3 stars out of 5.

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Cheers

Insp Rich: Final Review of Assured Soccer Profits