20th November 2011

Hi Bloggers, Inspector Colin here, with the results for Days 27 to 28 of Lay of The Day, published by ZeroHype.

A reminder that this is early days for the revised selection criteria – with the original selection method being used for 23 days, making a loss of 43.71 points using level liability stakes, or 11.6 points using the recommended staking plan.

Day 27 saw 9 lay bets, on 7 horses – 2 win bets (both winners) and 7 place bets (2 losers out of 7). Average odds were shorter than average at 3.83 – and included a win bet lay at 3.92 and Place bet at 1.7 on the same horse which both won. As a result, using fixed liabilities the selections made a profit of 19.66 points, but on fixed profit stakes (as recommended) made a loss of 1.65 points.

Day 28 was another very poor day. 5 horses selected – 3 win lay bets and 5 place lay bets. Although none of win lay bets were winners, 3 of the Place bets were placed (1 long priced winner and 2 seconds). We lost 62 points on the fixed liability measure, and 8.45 points on the fixed profit stakes.

So – from the new methodology we have the following results:

34 Selections   Odds 4.56,    Strike rate 70.6%

Fixed Liability

Days 24 to 28 : Stake 1020 points,   Loss -115.74 points, ROI : -11.3%

Cum:    Stake 1800 points,   Odds 5.63,    Strike rate 76.7%  Loss (-159.45) points.

ROI (-8.9)%. Bank (from 1000 start)  840.55 (down 15.9%).

Recommended Stakes

Days 24 to 28 : Target profit 34 points, Stake 216.25 points, Loss -20.15 points

Cum: Target profit 71 points, Stake 525.72 points, Loss (-31.78) points.

ROI (-6.0)%.    Bank (from 500 start) 468.22 (down 6.3%)

Things are looking rather bleak at the moment, although the big problem seems to be with Place betting. Over the last 5 days, we have had 11 win bets, and only 1 loser (effectively breaking even) – but 23 place bets, of which 9 were losers, losing 123 points on the fixed liability basis, and 18.15 points on the fixed staking basis (needing 20 consecutive winning bets to get back to level pegging).

Inspector Colin

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Insp Colin  Lay of the Day – Days 27 to 28