5th November 2011

Hi Bloggers, Inspector Colin here, with the results for Days 15 & 16 of Lay of The Day, published by ZeroHype.

The selection process had apparently been tweaked slightly to be more conservative, and therefore we had no selections for 1st & 2nd of November. Initially there was no selection for 3rd either, but there was a late selection, which I failed to pick up until too late. However, to be fair I checked that the notification was received in plenty of time to have laid a bet, and I therefore monitored the lay at Betfair SP. The advertised price was 15.5 – but this had gone out to 21 by starting time. The selected horse came in 5th. making this the 11th successive win.

However, Friday saw us come a bit of a cropper, with the selection unfortunately winning what appears to have been a cracking race at odds of 5.3 (5.8 when advised).

I’m monitoring against fixed stakes (a 30 point liability per bet or 3% of the original bank), and using the recommended staking provided by Lay of the Day. The staking plan makes a big difference to the results when a lowish odds selection wins.

with the hit rate at 83.8% overall we have the following results:

Fixed Stake

Day 15 : Stake 30 points,   Odds 21.0,   Gain 1.43 points

Day 16 : Stake 30 points, Odds 5.3,      Loss 30 points

Cum:    Stake 540 points,  Odds 9.14, Loss (-45.71) points.

ROI (-8.5)%. Bank (from 1000 start)  954.29 (down 4.6%).

Recommended Stakes

Day 15 : Target profit 1 point,  Stake 20 points, Gain 0.95 points.

Day 16 : Target profit 1 point, Stake 4.3 points, Loss 4.3 points

Cum: Target profit 27.5 points, Stake 238.12 points, Loss (-9.52) points.

ROI (-4.0)%.    Bank (from 500 start) 490.48 (down 1.9%)

With 3 losing bets, two of which were at significantly shorter than average odds, the safest staking methodology has been “fixed profit target” – not “fixed liability”.

Inspector Colin

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Insp Colin  Lay of the Day – Day 15 and 16