Factors That Affect The Way A Horse Performs (Part 1)

There are certain things that professional punters and bookies know will affect the way a horse performs and its chances of winning a race. These things are simple enough to find out, but they can also be a mystery to those who don’t know what to look for or why they’re important.

In this article series, we will go through some of the most important factors that affect race horses. You’ll then be in a strong position to use this information yourself and have more success in identifying strong horses to back and potential donkeys to lay.

Form (how the horse has performed over the past races):

If the horse has consistently won over competition that is comparable to the animals it is running against on the day you are making your decision, he has a good chance of repeating that again.

You can see the form of each horse to the left of their respective names on the Racing Post racecard.

It might look something like this: 68-F0412

This tells us that the horse came 2nd in its most recent race, 1st in the race prior and 4th in the race before that… and so on.

The ’0′ means that the horse finished 10th or worse and the dash (-) represents the start of a new racing season.

If the horse hasn’t won, he may have letters next to his name, which indicate how the race ended for the horse.

F stands for ‘fell’…
I stands for ‘injured’…
P for ‘pulled-up’…
and U for ‘unseating the jockey’.

Some comments can also be found on the way the horse ran, such as ‘ran on’, ‘finished strong’, ‘driven out’ and the like. All of these can be used as factors to determine if a horse is a threat even if it didn’t win previously.

For example, a horse that was injured in a race only recently may not be fully recovered. Even if that horse finished 1st in as many as 5 previous races, the injury in the race just before this might have serious impact on its ability. These are things that you would normally not want in a racing horse.

On the other hand, if a horse was disqualified because it previously unseated its jockey, that may have no bearing on the outcome of the race about to take place.

Last runs (when the horse was last raced):

When the horse was last raced can have a very big influence on how well it will run now.

A horse that has run one or more races recently is more likely to be in good racing form than one who has had a lengthy spell of ‘downtime’.  This is especially true if the horse’s form shows progressive improvement on its recent performances.

On the flip side, horse that has been too heavily raced may be tired. For instance, a horse that has run in a race every week over the past several months is likely to be close to breaking down. This is something to consider when you are backing/laying horses.

The horse’s class:

Horses of comparable status are grouped together in ‘classes’ — this promotes more competitive races and makes perfect sense.

It’s always important to assess whether a horse is moving up or down in class, compared to previous races… and how well (or badly) the horse ran in previous instances when its raced in this particular class.

A horse running in the same class he/she has been in will probably offer a reasonably comparable performance to his last runs. On the other hand, if the horse has moved up a class, he may not be able to keep up with the better horses he is now up against — simply put, he/she may end up being ‘outclassed’. This is especially true if the horse has struggled in its previous races against horses of this improved class.

On the other hand, if he/she has dropped a class that may be something to watch out for as well because he/she may suddenly be in a field of horses that it is far superior to and the horse could run them into the ground…

… And that’s all from me for today. Stay tuned for the next installment of this series where I’ll be expanding on other factors that’ll help you identify potential winners to back and donkeys to lay.

Have a good one,

- Josh.