Slapdash – Uk Horse Racing

At the time of writing, Slapdash, as this interviewee will be referred to, is sitting in pole position in the www.sports-punter.com top tipsters rating, some 250 points ahead of his nearest rival. For those unsure of what sports-punter is, it’s a free competition run in association with www.punterslounge.com whereby the most successful tipsters each month (so those who make the most profit) win prize money of up to £300 for first place.

Upon my request that he answer some questions for laytheodds.com, Slapdash was only too willing. Below are his responses.

Can you tell me more about yourself and how you got into gambling?

I’m a mathematician. When I was a kid, my Dad bet on the horses as a hobby; just small stakes as a hobby, I don’t think he made money from it. I learned a little bit about it then, and got a little interested in the mathematical aspects.

Later on, I tried out a few ideas, mostly mathematically based, since I don’t know much about studying form and so on. I think I discovered for myself a form of the “favourite longshot bias” (long odds on shots tend to be more favourably priced), but in those days there was betting tax, and it was very hard to make money from betting
… I didn’t make any, anyway, though I only bet tiny amounts.

I lost interest until two or three years ago, when it occurred to me that the growth of the internet, giving far easier access to information, and abolition of betting tax ought to have made it easier to make a profit. Which it has.

Would you describe yourself as a betting exchange trader or a punter, if possible, describe some of sports you bet on and a few of the methods you use?

Not a betting exchange trader, though I do use Betfair. I don’t really think of myself as a gambler; I don’t bet for the thrill of it or anything.

I bet on horses, obviously, almost exclusively trying to get an edge from the each-way terms offered by bookies. Also football, mostly trying to exploit the favourite longshot bias by betting on long odds-on shots. And I follow the tips of a small number of people I trust in various sports.

What is your personal opinion on tipping services, would you advise people to go out there and look for them?

You mean paid services, I presume? I don’t have any moral objections to them (apart from the advertising methods some of them use!), but I don’t use them myself. It’s very hard to judge how good they are without subscribing to their tips for a very long period. I tend to think it’s much easier to have confidence in tipsters who post their tips for free in forums: they don’t have the same financial pressure to produce winning tips, and I think they’re more likely to be honest about how confident they are. Also it’s easier to do some research into their previous record. I’m sure there are many reputable paid tipsters who are honest about their record, but you can’t know for sure.

You’ve obviously used some very successful systems in the past. Assume I’m a beginner and want to avoid paying for a system online. How do you suggest I go about creating my own profitable system?

Tough one! I’ve never really sat down thinking “I’m going to create a system”. I’ve had an idea that I think might work, and looked into it, and tried it out, and tried to think of ways to improve it. Usually it doesn’t work!

What is the most costly lesson you have ever made when either betting or trading?

I’m very disciplined with my betting, and I’ve never had a major disaster. For example, I’d never put half my betting bank on something I think is a “sure thing”. I’ve occasionally done something stupid like accidentally making the wrong bet. When you do that, the bet you make by accident never seems to win!

Early on, I thought I’d found a massive arbitrage opportunity, but after I’d placed the two bets I realized that the rules were different at the two bookmakers, and it would have been quite easy for both bets to lose, costing me a lot of money. Luckily they didn’t. I guess the lesson is to be sure you know exactly what you’re betting on!

Do you have any further information, tips or help you could give someone who has been betting or trading for a while or is just starting out?

Let’s see. If you’re going to be betting serious sums of money, rather than just pocket money for fun, I think it’s essential to have a dedicated betting bank separate from your other finances, which you can afford to lose, and try to think of it as “points” in a game, so you’re not always thinking “if this loses, it’s going to cost me X days salary”.

I think it helps to have (or learn) a rudimentary knowledge of statistics, just so you can judge the significance of things. For example, if you make 50 bets of one unit at odds around 6/4, and you make a profit (or loss) of 10 units, it’s tempting to think “that’s great” (or “that’s awful”). But in fact it’s well within the range of random fluctuations.

I think it helps to have a simple staking system. I’m not talking about anything fancy, but for example, I stake about 1% of my bank on most bets, and 2% on some, particular kinds, which saves me from worrying every time about how much to bet.

Don’t put short priced bets into doubles or trebles just because you think the prices are too short for singles.