Comments on: Profitable Trading Strategies

By: Stevencurry

Stevencurry — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 22:31:04 +0000

Hi does your example only show a profit if the final score is a draw… Can the draw profit be used to green up on one of the teams winning?

Steve c

By: Magnus

Magnus — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 23:09:34 +0000

You are totally right Joe.

He’s definetly lying when claiming odds went to 6.50 after Argentina scored. There’s no way it would do that that early. Furthermore Germany was the small favorite, which makes his claim even less reliable.

@Joe:

By: Payday

Payday — Sat, 12 Nov 2011 19:55:21 +0000

@Neil:
Hey Neil,
think about the 120 he used to cover 0:0
I guess that’s why

By: thomas

thomas — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 06:27:42 +0000

hello everyone,

instead of laying the draw, can we lay the under 2.5 goals market?

what do you think?

good? bad? worst? better?

By: Neil

Neil — Wed, 22 Sep 2010 11:31:56 +0000

Hi there.

Very interesting piece. I have a question though. How do you arrive at the stake of £250 to back the draw at 6.5 – my arbing calculators all give me a stake of £225 .34 in order to green up. Obviously this severely dents my profit. Where am I going wrong!!

Great stuff though. Thanks a lot

Rolla

By: Paul

Paul — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 09:44:38 +0000

I tried this tactic before even reading this article so I’m glad to know I’ve been thinking how other traders think.

There is another potential flaw with the model that you didn’t mention. I know this because it happened to me and I lost a pretty penny which put my off trading for a while!

I layed the draw between the Ukraine and the Netherlands, and backed 0-0 for a profit. After 70 minutes the Netherlands scored so I waited for the market to settle so I could exit at a profit. Unfortunately the market took a long time to come out of ‘suspension’ and when it did, it took a long time to settle (I say long, it took about 50-60 seconds before I could back the draw).

The Ukraine scored before I could back the draw and I lost loads of money because it was near the end of the game and the odds for the draw shortened.

Nothing is bulletproof, and because of how unpredictable football is, be prepared for something to happen that will knock your socks off :-/

By: chris

chris — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 06:20:43 +0000

hi again, ive just got another quick queston re. the above example. what would the p/l be if one of the teams had won at full time (am i right in thinking penalties don’t count with betfair full time results?). sorry im new to this and just trying to get my head round the maths!

By: chris

chris — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 04:02:36 +0000

hi does anyone know where i can get a spreadsheet to work out stakes? or maybe just a bit more detail in how the stakes are worked out? cheers guys

By: Joe

Joe — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 21:18:17 +0000

In your example how long did you wait to place your exit trade?

Argentina scored in the 48th minute and with starting odds of 3.15 I would imagine the odds just before the goal were between 2.0 and 2.5, therefore surely the draw odds didn’t jump straight up to 6.5 on only the 48th minute?

By: David

David — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:09:37 +0000

Thanks for your comment Tim, which prompted to check the figures.

In fact there is an error with the 0-0, but not exactly as you stated.

The profit on winning @ 11 with £120 is £1140 (after 5 per cent commission), This will give an overall profit of (£1,140- £1,000)£140. So we do indeed have a higher profit than stated in the article but not as much as you state.

In your calculations you have included the original stake (£120) as part of the profit.

But thanks again for pointing it out. We will correct the article shortly.

The article certainly is a good example of how you can profit from covering all your options.