Nigel Hunters Black Book Final Review

17th February 2012

Insp Howard reviews Nigel Hunters Black Book

Hi Bloggers,

To recap Nigel Hunters Black Book is a backing ratings strategy created from years of research by Nigel in what the key attributes of winning Horses are.  He has created his own ratings based on factors including form and experience. Selections will be emailed Monday to Friday (no selections Saturday or Sunday) between approximately 11am and 12.30pm.  The email will contain both the selections and his ratings providing some reasoning behind his advice.

Only four types of bet will ever be advised Singles, Multiples, Each Way and Reverse Forecasts.  The stake size will be represented in points. So fairly straight forward for the subscriber to assign a stake size to each point.

The only additional requirement for any subscriber of Nigel Hunters Black Book other than following the advice and placing the bets is to follow Nigel’s golden rule before betting.  This involves confirming there is no official going change or jockey change prior to the race. The only exception to this is if a bet is advised to be placed early if Nigel thinks the price will shorten. The email does clearly explain all this advice so it is easy to follow, but it is worth pointing out about the requirement to check the races for changes (advised 20-30mins before off) because subscribers may have time constraints.  All in all though Nigel Hunters Black Book does not involve much work at all for subscribers.

It appears the doors are currently closed for the service but the fees at the time were annual membership only:

£495 by Direct Debit.

£535 by Credit Card.

So onto the results for the trial period of 56 days:

Total bets                   69

Wins                           32

Losses                        36

Broke Even                 1

Total Points Staked    288

Strike Rate                 46.37%

R.O.I.                          3.90%

Level Stakes staking plan:

Start Balance:     100 pts

Total P/L:            -6.06 pts

Final Balance:     93.94 pts

Advised Staking plan:

Start Balance:      100 pts

Total P/L:              11.26 pts

Final Balance:     111.26 pts

Below I will give you a break down of my conclusions of the Service to provide my reasoning of the overall rating.

Profitability

The overall profit of 11.26pts is low when you take into subscription fees of 495.00 for the year.   Based on the review period results multiplied as an average you could expect an overall annual profit of around 73 pts.  The fees work out at £41.25 per month, below I have shown what the estimated profit would be based on various pound per point levels after deducting fees.

£10 per point:       £19.58

£50 per point:       £262.91

£100 per point:     £567.08

So a good estimated overall yearly profit at £50 per point+ and of course this is not taking into account the option of compounding. Though from the above I draw the conclusion that starting with £10 per point would not be enough.  When you consider to start with £10 per point you would need a bank of £1000 then the picture changes.  I can’t see how you could operate less than a 100pts bank when some stakes went up to 10pts and fairly regular 5pts.  It is also worth pointing out that the Service also advises a 100pt bank. So to generate a monthly estimated profit of £262+ you would need to start with a £5000 betting bank. I think it’s only fair though to take into account with this rating that level staking ended up with an overall loss and was virtually always in the red.  Of course this wont be a problem to many if preference is to stick rigidly to the advised staking plans with services.  Whilst I generally agree this is what people should do if committing to a service, I also hold some strength to the argument that any good method/service should show a profit on level stakes.

Profitability rating 2 out 5

Operating the service

I have found the service very easy to operate.  It takes minimal time as all you have to do is look out for selections and then place the bets.  There has been minimal issues obtaining prices.  The only slight downside is to follow the golden correctly you would on some bets have to wait to place the bets just before the off to check the going or jockey has not changed.  If you work and this would present an issue (and would rather place bets straight away) I think the overall effect on profits or loss would be very minimal.  I say this because there have been very few bets cancelled because of the above rule,  I think only one if I recall correctly.

Operating the service rating 4 out of 5

Return on Investment

To gain 11.26pts I had to stake 288 points.  So working to £50 per point again thats:

£14,400 staked to win £563.00

This in itself is not an issue if your operating a system where risk is managed e.g. trading/stop losses etc but in the above this is not the case.

On the upside the strike rate I view as high at 46.37% for the review period.  Obviously you will have seen there is quite a lot of short priced selections with this method as a consequence.

Return on Investment rating 2 out of 5

Risk

The maximum loss for any one day on the review period was 10pts and this happened only once.  There was a few days with 5pt losses.  The Betting bank to advised stakes at it’s lowest point was 83.86pts from a starting bank of 100pts.  So the betting bank never dropped below a loss of 16.14%.

Risk rating 3 out of 5

Support and Documentation.

I have never had to ask for any support so it is difficult to apply a rating therefore I have to be cautious. But I also base my rating on not requiring support because there is no difficult manuals or software to operate and the emails received are clear and mainly easy to understand.  I don’t think a betting novice would have any trouble operating this service.

Support and Documentation rating 3 out of 5

Therefore the overall rating for Nigel Hunter’s Black Book based on my conclusions averages out at 2.5 out of 5.

Review Manager Note: Based upon Howard’s ratings, this is assigned a neutral rating, neither a pass nor a fail. As the sales page has been taken down by the publishers, I don’t anticipate reviewing this one again in the future.

Regards

Insp Howard

Insp Howard reviewing Nigel Hunters Black Book

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