A few months back I came across an article that I thought would help everyone in their lay betting. It was written by Jonathon Burgess of False Favourites fame. I have reproduced part of it here.
The following 5 key points will help you to assess races objectively and save valuable time when form reading. The new racing post.com has great functionality to help us be more defined and objective in our assessment.
Please bear in mind the betting forecast is often a good reflection of horse’s chances. Many of the factors we are looking for may have already been taken into consideration by the professional race readers, however their assessment is usually ratings based and often there are speculative factors included in their analysis. It is these factors that we are trying to uncover that will determine a horses true chance of winning.
Five key points to assess races objectively, and save valuable time when form reading.
1: Assess one race code at a time. Flat –Jumps –A.W. are completely different. Although there are generic similarities, specializing in one on any given day causes less confusion.
2: (K.I.S) Keep it simple – Start with one race meeting and look at 6 -12 runner races at first. This means fewer horses to assess.
3: Avoid races that are difficult to assess objectively, such as…
- Low class A.W. races contested by very poor horses (Often these types beat each other every other week making a nonsense of the form book)
- Maiden races full of unraced horses. (These races are based around guess work since no form is available)
- Selling races featuring a bunch of no hopers. Often the form figures will be difficult to interoperate accurately because what’s on offer is very poor.
4: Eliminate the no hopers from a race. Basically get rid of those animals that have a very limited chance, usually those rated well below the first 3or 4 in the betting forecast.
5: Assess the prevailing race conditions and ability of the horses left to handle those conditions, are there any proven performers. Likely you’ll be looking at the first 3 or 4 in the betting forecast in more detail?
- Look at factors such as CLASS, DISTANCE, GOING and FITNESS. These tend to be the most important factors regarding a horse’s winning chances.
- Eliminate any horse that’s not proven under the conditions or going to give your lay selection a run for the money.
- If you’re left with 2 or even 3 horses that appear to be in with a chance then it a case of picking the weakest amongst them.
If you do look at the races objectively as above, look at say, the first 5 in the betting – cross out any that are highlighted from the above and you should have a reasonable lay selection (or two) remaining. So it takes a bit of time, so what! We are trying to make our lay betting pay.
Always remember – If in doubt, leave it out
Written by on Feb 5th, 2010. Comment. 
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Scenario: We have a good lay system and we want to maximise the profits. How can we do this? The usual answer is : Increase the stakes. Yes, this will work, however, we have better options. The answer to maximising profits is to use the under-estimated Staking Plans. I have outlined one or two in this blog that are simple to operate and will result in bigger profits, whilst protecting your bank.
In order to maximise your profits and protect against big losses we recommend using one of the two staking plans that I have explained below. Before choosing a staking plan however, it is essential that you set aside a sum of money that will only be used for following the lay selections. This will be your betting bank and it should be money that you can afford to lose. Never bet with money that you can’t afford to lose.
STAKING PLAN ONE
Maximum liability set to 5% of your bank
Do not bet on any selection that drifts over 6/1 (7.0) – this figure can be adjusted to suit your system
example:
If you had a betting bank of £500 your liability would be £25. If the horse was priced at 3/1 (4.0) you would stake £8.33 (25 / 3 = 8.33). If the horse was priced at 5/2 (3.5) you would stake £10 (25 / 2.5 = 10).
If you are placing the bet on betfair the liability is displayed as you type in your stake. Just keep adjusting your stake until you have the right liability then submit your bet.
You can continue to bet to a liability of £25 and increase it when your betting bank has significantly increased or you can adjust your liability so that it is always 5% of your betting bank. e.g. If your first bet is successful your bank would increase to £508, your next bet would then be 5% of £508 = £25.40 liability. This is a great way of steadily increasing your bank over time, plus if we hit a losing run you will be betting less, thus protecting your betting bank.
If you are using this system with set stakes you could bet to larger liability but I would not recommend going higher than 10%.
STAKING PLAN TWO
Set your stake to 2.5% of your bank and have a maximum liability.
Set maximum liability to 10% of your bank.
Do not bet on any selections that drift over 6/1 (7.0) – this should be adapted to your system.
example:
If your betting bank is £1000 then you would stake £25 but if the horses odds are over 5.0 then you would reduce your stake so that your liability is not more than 10% of your bank. Stake = £25, Maximum liability = £100
e.g.
Horse odds Stake Liability
3.0 £25 £50
3.5 £25 £62.5
4.0 £25 £75
5.0 £25 £100
5.5 £22.2 £100
6.0 £20 £100
7.0 £16.66 £100
You can see that after 5.0 the stake gets smaller and the liability remains the same. This is a good way of protecting yourself from big losses whilst still profiting from some bigger priced horses.
Written by on Feb 3rd, 2010. Comment.
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To lay or not to lay, that really IS the question..
It looks good, in say, a 15 runner race, having 14 horses running for you and just the one against you, but, when is it good to lay and when should we steer clear? I for one, take great notice of the jockey and trainer statistics, especially at the course. This basically means that I would never lay an A P McCoy ridden horse, yet there is a post on the lay forum suggesting the opposite if it fits a certain price criteria! Fortunately, there is a system out there that fulfills our statistical needs – False Favourites.
Okay, it doesn’t have the jockey and trainer figures, but it does have a comprehensive database on how the favourites fared at each course, and this is of paramount importance when deciding whether or not to lay.
Other factors to consider can be gleaned from the racing Posts Postdata. Going is especially important, and if a horse has an X in the ground/going column it is a good indicator that it could be a lay. The class of the race is also important: most horses have an optimum class to which they can run. To ascertain the top class a horse has performed at, we need to look at the actual form in the racing post.
It’s always worthwhile looking at the comments section for each race. This can save you time looking through the form and will pinpoint weaknesses as well as positives. The key to laying succesfully is quality and not quantity. Spend time looking at each prospective lay and only lay it IF everything looks in your favour, including the price!
If in doubt, leave it out!!!
Written by on Jan 29th, 2010. Comment.
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