World Cup Strategy: A Lesson From History, Part 2

In Part 1 we looked at whether a strategy of backing the favourite and laying prior to the semi-final would have been successful.  Let’s continue this by looking at the tournaments since 1986.

Mexico 1986.  Winners: Argentina. Following the experience of the European teams at high altitude in 1970, it was expected that they would struggle to adapt to the conditions.  However France were rated very highly, with a team containing many highly rated played including Platini, Tigana and Giresse.  But overall, it’s probably fair to say that Brazil were marginal favourites followed by Argentina.  Adopting Brazil as favourites would not have been successful as you would not have been able to trade out in time thanks to a defeat on penalties to France in the Quarter Finals.  This was the tournament that belonged to Maradona and his ‘hand of God’.   Result of Strategy: YOU LOSE!

Italy 1990.  Winners: West Germany. It is not beyond reason to say that Italy were the favourites.  They had the pedigree, they had home advantage and their team had a number of players capable of turning any match in their favour, not least Gianluca Vialli and Roberto Baggio.  As usual, there were a number of other teams also given realistic chances of winning, including the eventual winners.  Although Italy lost rather unluckily to Argentina, this was at the semi-final  stage and strict application of the strategy would have given you a profit.  Result of Strategy: YOU WIN!

USA 1994.  Winners: Brazil. Every time I think of the 1994 tournament I have this image of Diana Ross missing an empty net from the penalty spot in what was meant to be a cleverly staged drama to kick off the tournament.  After this things could only get better and they did, but it would be a mistake to suppose that the winners were the clear favourites, having only just scraped through the qualifying in their final match.    It is probably more likely that you would have chosen Germany as your favourites, especially as they had a strong squad and the assurance of being holders.  But in this case you would have been in trouble, as they went down to a shock 2-1 defeat by Bulgaria in the Quarter Finals.  Result of Strategy: YOU LOSE!

France 1998.  Winners: France. You will not be surprised to learn that Brazil were the favourites again while few people outside France expected the home team to triumph.  No matter, as Brazil reached the final, though I still find the story of what happened to Ronaldo intriguing: It seems he simply succumbed to the pressure of the occasion and spent most of the 90 minutes running around the pitch in a daze.  Result of Strategy: YOU WIN!

South Korea/Japan 2002.  Winners: Brazil. There were no clear favourites for the tournament and indeed most of the big guns underperformed.  Brazil and Germany reached the semi-finals along with Turkey and South Korea no less.  I think whoever you backed as favourites, there is quite a high probability that it would not have been South Korea or Turkey. As for Germany, they were considered to have one of their weakest teams ever. And though Brazil won, they were not as of earlier vintages.  Given that it is just as likely that you would have backed France, Italy or Argentina, we can say that the strategy most likely would not have worked.  Result of Strategy: YOU LOSE!

Germany 2006.  Winners: Italy. Since I might have been a bit harsh in the last tournament, I will assume that this time you did not back Brazil as favourites. Just as well as they lost 1-0 to France at the Quarter-Final stage.  Given the comparative strength of the semi-final line-up (France, Italy, Portugal and (surprise) Germany, I will assume this time the strategy worked.  Result of Strategy: YOU WIN!

In conclusion, in only 5 of the last 11 tournaments would a strategy of backing and laying the favourite before the semi-finals been successful (even when being generous).  In a way this illustrates the danger of adopting too rigid a formula in the World Cup: Clearly the fancied team does not always live up to expectations, and it offers a salutary warning to anyone planning to put their hard earned on Spain to lift the trophy.  Having said that, I would not like to back against them either!

Please look out for more World Cup articles in the run up to the big kick off, including a look at laying strategies!