World Cup 2010 – The Greatest Show on Earth VI

We are moving on apace now and we have arrived at Group F in our search for the World Cup winners.

In this group we find the current World Champions, Italy alongside the rank outsiders New Zealand, the best Paraguayan team they have ever had and the tough Slovakians. Let’s find out how they are all going to get along.

Group F

Italy  -  Azzurri,  FIFA ranked 5,  Price to win group  1.5

Paraguay  -  La Albiroja,  FIFA ranked 23,  Price to win group  4.7

New Zealand  -  All whites,  FIFA ranked 79,  Price to win group  40.0

Slovakia  -  Fighting Jondas,  FIFA ranked 33,  Price to win group 9.0

Italy

The current World Champions will be looking to defend their crown. This is their 17th World Cup and are only second to Brazil in winning it. They have won the World Cup 4 times but crucially, they have never won it outside of Europe and I’m afraid they will not win it this time. They beat France in a penalty shoot-out in 2006, when Trezeguet hit the crossbar from the spot, in that very infamous final, when ZZ was sent off for headbutting Mr Matterazzi.

Their latest friendly was a disappointing 0-0 draw with Cameroon in Monaco, at the beginning of March. They have further friendlies against Mexico and Switzerland before the real thing starts. A curious fact was that all of the 23 man squad for that game against Cameroon were based in Italy and whilst they had 6 players with great experience, Cannavarro, Gattuso, Pirlo, De Rossi, Di Natale and Chiellini, the rest of the squad was pretty inexperienced. True, they do have others outside of that squad who can come in with experience but I think they are probably past it. The only English based player who may make it to South Africa is Aquilani from Liverpool.

Two of their games are at altitude but their first game against Paraguay is at sea level and that will suit the Italians better. I don’t think they will mind playing Slovakia and New Zealand at altitude. Lippi is their very experienced coach and Cannavarro the captain. They no longer have the great names of the game and I am not sure they even have the balance of the side right yet. They should get through the group but that may be as far as they go. They are no longer the dour defenders that they used to be and that fact alone will catch them out in South Africa.

Paraguay

This is the best side they have ever had. I am taking the Red and Whites to win the group if they can overcome their pathological fear of playing top European teams away from Paraguay. They finished 3rd in the CONMEBOL qualifying group, just 1 point behind Brazil and 5 points ahead of Argentina. This will be their 8th World Cup and have previously got past the group stages 3 times but never gone any further, this could be their best World Cup.

Although still in a state of an evolving team, they have found the right mix and balance that allows them to perform at a high level. It is now just a question of getting the consistency of performance. Under the guidance of the Argentine, Martino and the captain Caniza of Leon in Mexico, they can give any team in the world a game if they are on their day.

They are strong throughout the team, with Villar in goal, Silva and Caceres in defence, Barreto, Santana, Vera and Riveros in midfield and Santa Cruz, Cabanas and Valdez up front. If they can cure their travel sickness and get something from their very first game against Italy, they will be fine. They should get through the group and probably win it. They have got warm up games against Republic of Ireland, Ivory Coast and Greece before the big day, so we will know more about them before the start of the tournament.

New Zealand

The All Whites come into this as the lowest ranked team in the competition and I suspect they are just pleased to be there and whilst they will undoubtedly try their very best, I’m afraid it will fall far short of what is required. Coming through the Oceana qualifying group, this is the second World Cup for New Zealand, in the first one in 1982 they ended up losing all 3 matches and unfortunately, I think it will go the same way this time.

They have the distinct disadvantage that back home there is only a young semi-professional football league in operation. The majority of their squad play in Europe or the Australian League. A fair number of their current squad do play in England, generally at a lower level but the best known is the captain Ryan Nelsen (Blackburn). They also have Killen (Middlesboro), Fallon (Plymouth), Wood (West Brom), James (Barnet), Smith (Ipswich), Old (Kilmarnock), McClinchey (Motherwell) and Bright (Shrewsbury). 

In their latest game they went down 2-0 to Mexico in the USA, with further friendlies lined up against Australia, Serbia, Slovenia and Chile before the real action starts. Apart from Nelsen, none of their players play at the highest level and this will be a steep learning curve for them. Their organisational skills will get them so far but it will not help them break down professional defences and apart from that, they will not have a great deal of possession in the first place. All they can hope to do, is learn from the fabulous experience and come back stronger next time.

Slovakia

A close knit team that is well drilled and competent but will ultimately fail due to the lack of experience at this level. They are however very experienced as a team and that should hold them in good stead. The Slovak Football Union was only formed in 1993 after the dissolution of Czechoslavakia and this will in fact be their very first World Cup as the independent country of Slovakia.

Vladimir Weiss is the coach and his son, who has the same name and plays with Bolton, on-loan from Manchester City is one of the UK based players. The others are, Skrtel (Liverpool), Cech (West Brom), Pernis (Dundee Utd) and Michalik (Leeds). The captain is Marek Hamsik, the well regarded Napoli midfielder. In their most recent game they went down 1-0 to Norway and have further friendlies to come against Cameroon and Costa Rica.

They have done well to get to South Africa and will work hard to make it difficult for teams but they do not have the quality necessary to get out of the group unless they over-perform and one of the others under-performs. They will view it as a way of gaining valuable experience of top competition and should be all the better for it.

Group F

This is not the most demanding of groups and it should be set up nicely for Italy and Paraguay to qualify. Italy actually play Paraguay in the first game and this will decide who finishes top of the group. As I have said before, the first game is notorious for draws and if this goes the same way, then I fully expect they will both go through to the knockout stages but who will come top. If the new found confidence of the Paraguayans can manifest itself on the biggest stage, I will take them to top the group, with Italy as runners-up.

Slovakia will have too much for New Zealand but not enough for Italy or Paraguay, so I take them to finish 3rd and New Zealand 4th.

Final Placings

1   Paraguay

2   Italy

3   Slovakia

4   New Zealand

Next time we shall be looking at Group G, which is the second group of death and includes Brazil, Portugal, Ivory Coast and North Korea.