World Cup 2010 – the Greatest Show on Earth I

The Greatest Show on Earth kicks off on June 11 in South Africa, without David Beckham. Now we will never know if Fabio would have picked him in his final 23. I’m sure he will be there in some capacity though, probably as an ambassador for the 2018 World Cup bid. This will be the first time that the competition has been held on the African continent. The very first game will be between the hosts, South Africa and Mexico, played in Johannesburg.

Over the next 8 weeks we will look at each group in turn and try to fathom out how they will develop.

Group A

South Africa  -  Bafana Bafana, FIFA ranked 86, price to win Group 8.0

Mexico  -  El Tri, FIFA ranked 15, price to win Group 4.8

Uruguay  -  Charruas, FIFA ranked 19, price to win Group 4.9

France  -  Les Bleus, FIFA ranked 7, price to win Group 2.1

The first set of games in each group is crtical, so it is always interesting to see who is playing who. The chances of losing your first game and still getting through the group are very slim, so the overriding fact of the first game is not to lose it. The first games in this group, see South Africa play Mexico and France play Uruguay. We will now look at each team, their strengths, their weaknesses and where will they end up in the group.

South Africa

The host nation has never failed to get out of the group stages, they have always gone on to the round of the last 16 at least. Will this be the first time that the hosts don’t make it into the next round? We have all just seen the Africa Cup of Nations which was a very poor advert for African football. The very best of them, Egypt, aren’t even at the World Cup and the rest of them were pathetic. South Africa are nowhere near the best team in Africa, they didn’t even qualify for the Nations Cup and so their chances of getting out of this group are negligible.

Last year they did host the FIFA Confederation Cup, when they finished a respectable 4th. They did ok against the lesser nations but were found wanting when they came up against Brazil and Spain, even without their stars. In their last 5 games their only win has been against Zimbabwe. They have qualified for 2 previous World Cups, 1998 in France and 2002 in Korea/Japan, when they score their one and only World Cup win by beating Slovenia 1-0.

Their main players, or certainly the ones you will recognise, are the captain, Aaron Mokoena (Portsmouth), leading goalscorer Benni McCarthy (West Ham) and Steven Pienaar (Everton). Their strengths are that they have a very established squad, with plenty of caps and experience but they have had no competitive games for quite a while now. They, of course, have the home support and will be fine with the altitude factor, all 3 of their group are played at altitude but they do not have great strength in depth in the squad.

They have the hopes of a nation resting on their shoulders but they are probably past their sell by date. They will be competitive in games up to a point but when the crunch comes they will not be able to handle it. They have Mexico in the opening game and they just have to get something from that game, even a draw would be great for them but I just can’t see it and I think they will be battling for the wooden spoon with Uruguay.

Mexico

They have qualified for 13 World Cups, with their best efforts coming in 1970 and 1986, when they reached the Quarter-Finals. They are a vastly experienced side and have the very impressive Javier Aguirre as their manager, taking over from Sven last year. Aguirre has transformed their performances. When he arrived they looked to have no chance of qualifying but he steered them through with consumate ease, going on a long unbeaten run.

Their best known player is the captain, Marquez, the Barcelona defender. Gunners supporters will be aware of Carlos Vela, who is one of the younger members of the Mexico squad. They certainly put their national team through the mill, with umpteen Internationals each year, in fact between now and the World Cup they have 10 friendlies planned, including one against England at the end of May. They will have no problems with altitude as all their home games are played at altitude. Meticulous planning in their preparations, sees them have 5 friendlies at the Azteca stadium, far higher than anything they will face in South Africa.

Mexico are a nearly side, they nearly make it but always get found out in the end and this year will be no different, though I can see them getting to the Quarter-Finals again. Their strengths are the experience they have and how they work hard to make the best of what they have got. They will make it difficult for sides to beat them and their games with Uruguay and France are the key to this group.

Uruguay

They won the very first World Cup back in 1930, defeating their old enemy Argentina 4-2 in the final. They missed out on qualification last time round in Germany but this time they beat Costa Rica 2-1 in a 2 legged play-off, to decide the final team to get to South Africa.

Their manager is Oscar Tabarez and their captain is Diego Lugano, the Fenerbahce defender. The player that will be known to British fans, is that erstwhile “attacker” from Manchester United, who now plies his trade a little more successfully at Athletico Madrid, Diego Forlan.

Uruguay are an up and coming side. They did really well to qualify, finishing behind Brazil, Paraguay, Chile and Argentina. They have had a really good result since qualifying, when they beat a very good Swiss team by 3-1 in Switzerland. That really was a good performance and maybe the World Cup is coming at just the right time for them. But…….

There are 2 big problems with this Uruguay team. They are renowned poor travellers. Great at home but poor away from home. It is not a problem for just this Uruguayan but successive teams have had the same problem. Now you may say, with some justification, that they have remedied this problem of late. It is true, they have won their last 2 away games, 1-0 in Costa Rica and 3-1 in Switzerland against a pretty good Swiss side. So we shall see how they go. The second problem though, is even bigger. In their home games they don’t play at altitude, so they don’t have the experience. 2 of their 3 group games are at altitude and who do they play in those 2 games, they play South Africa and Mexico, the two teams with great experience of altitude. Their only game at sea level is against France. This then is a big problem, which Uruguay will not be able to overcome.

France

Where do we start. Should they even be there? We could go on all day about that one but the fact is, they are there and they have to get on with it. They are heavy favourites to win the group but should they be? Their coach is Raymond Domenech, not very popular in France but of course, that would all change if they were to lift the famous trophy. However, there is more chance of me winning the lottery than there is of France winning the World Cup.

They do have excellent recent pedigree in the competition. In 4 of the last 5 for which they have qualified, they have finished, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th that is probably the best recent history of any team. Therein lies the problem. Their odds have been built on recent history and not how the team is performing now. This is not the team of yesteryear, they are mediocre at best and can be rubbish at times. They seem to have dual captains in Viera and Henry, depending on who is playing, though neither of those play regularly for their clubs.

Many of their players play in the Premiership, Evra, Sagna, Gallas, Clichy, Silvestre, Malouda, Viera, Diaby, Nasri, Anelka, Saha, Henry, that is virtually a team in itself. Unfortuantely, their very best players are past it and their younger ones have done nothing yet. They have 3 friendlies before the World Cup, Costa Rica, Tunisia and China but in their most recent they were outplayed at home by Spain. They may get through to the knockout stages but that is as far as they will go.

Group A

So how will this group pan out? The hosts always do well and I would love to see South Africa in the last 16 but I just don’t think it will happen. They are not playing well enough, don’t have any strength in depth and are up against 3 difficult opponents. Their game against Uruguay will decide who finishes bottom of the group.

Mexico are probably more of a “team” than any others out there because of how often they play together. They have had good recent results, have had a massive build up, are well equipped to handle the conditions and are a tough team to beat. I think they will top the group.

Uruguay have had a struggle to get here but are now putting together some good results. They are notoriously bad travellers though and they don’t have necessary experience of altitude and are going to find it difficult when coming up against teams who are suited to those conditions.

France basically are past it. Domenech can’t get the best out of his players, they will have to deal with the fact that they are very lucky to be there at all and in their Central and South American opponents they may get found out. Also they don’t have the experience of altitude and conditions will be alien to them but they may just get into the last 16.

Final Group Placings

1   Mexico

2  France

3  South Africa

4  Uruguay

Next week we shall be looking at Group B and those (loveable Argies).