Trainers to Follow – March 2010
In a new series of horse racing articles I will be researching the habits and routines of the trainers to attempt to provide some profitable pointers by suggesting we back the runners from particular stables during the coming weeks.
I will be using a combination of past data from such resources as the Racing Post, Adrian Massey and Sporting Life sites coupled with recent form to highlight a short-list of Trainers and/or particular race types that may provide us with a source of winners and hopefully a profit at the end of the month.
In subsequent months I will report back on the results of each previous month and these will be based on placing a theoretical 1 point win bet using the Betfair SP facility.
To kick things off for the month of March, I have selected the following:-
O SHERWOOD
Oliver trains out of Upper Lambourn and although not having the best of seasons so far with only 11 winners from 111 runners he has had a couple of recent runners placed at big odds, and this is the time of year he generally comes into form. His results for this month during the past 3 seasons are as follows:
Overall (including National Hunt Flat races)
| Season | Wins | Runs | Win% | Return to a £1 level stake (SP) |
| 2006-2007 | 2 | 18 | 11% | +5.38 |
| 2007-2008 | 6 | 26 | 23% | +4.80 |
| 2008-2009 | 5 | 26 | 19% | +6.03 |
| Total | 13 | 70 | 18.57% | +16.21 |
Hurdles
| Season | Wins | Runs | Win% | Return to a £1 level stake (SP) |
| 2006-2007 | 1 | 10 | 10% | +11.00 |
| 2007-2008 | 5 | 15 | 33% | +6.80 |
| 2008-2009 | 1 | 14 | 7% | -9.67 |
| Total | 7 | 39 | 17.95% | +8.13 |
Chases
| Season | Wins | Runs | Win% | Return to a £1 level stake (SP) |
| 2006-2007 | 1 | 4 | 25% | -1.63 |
| 2007-2008 | 1 | 7 | 14% | +2.00 |
| 2008-2009 | 4 | 10 | 40% | +17.70 |
| Total | 6 | 21 | 28.57% | +18.07 |
Oliver has a relatively small string of horses and he tends to bring them along steadily. His owners include genuine horse enthusiasts such as Trevor Hemmings, Andrew Cohen and W H Ponsonby, and therefore the welfare of the horses is very important and as a result they tend to run less often and the winners can crop up at bigger prices.
Given both his hurdlers and chasers have been profitable overall for the last 3 year period I propose to back ALL OF HIS HURDLE AND CHASE RUNNERS DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH.
MRS S J SMITH
Sue Smith trains out of West Yorkshire and is married to the well known former show jumping legend Harvey Smith. As with Oliver Sherwood, Sue has had a quiet start to this season with 23 winners from 285 runners, but March has traditionally been the period where the win-rate has performed at its best.
Overall (including National Hunt Flat races)
| Season | Wins | Runs | Win% | Return to a £1 level stake (SP) |
| 2006-2007 | 3 | 41 | 7% | -21.00 |
| 2007-2008 | 13 | 62 | 21% | +118.35 |
| 2008-2009 | 14 | 63 | 22% | +44.21 |
| Total | 30 | 166 | 18.07% | +141.56 |
Hurdles
| Season | Wins | Runs | Win% | Return to a £1 level stake (SP) |
| 2006-2007 | 2 | 20 | 10% | -10.00 |
| 2007-2008 | 2 | 22 | 9% | -12.90 |
| 2008-2009 | 3 | 16 | 19% | -1.13 |
| Total | 7 | 58 | 12.07% | -24.03 |
Chases
| Season | Wins | Runs | Win% | Return to a £1 level stake (SP) |
| 2006-2007 | 1 | 17 | 6% | -7.00 |
| 2007-2008 | 10 | 35 | 29% | +123.25 |
| 2008-2009 | 10 | 46 | 22% | +38.83 |
| Total | 21 | 98 | 21.43% | +155.08 |
Whilst her record with hurdlers is fairly okay the real profits would appear to be with her chasers so I will be backing ALL OF HER RUNNERS IN CHASES DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH. When reviewing the trainer stats I will exclude all runners in National Hunt Flat races as these tend to be used for schooling purposes and the form from these types of races can often be mis-leading.
Finally I would like to draw your attention to a new method that has come to the market in the last week or so, which is also based on extensive research into trainer habits. The 1000 Point A Year System has already got off to a flyer with recent winners at 14/1, 9/1, 4/7 and 7/1, and it seems destined for another profitable year.
Written by on Mar 1st, 2010. Comment.
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Comments on Trainers to Follow – March 2010
spreadeck @ 11:56 am
Hi Steve,
I’ve followed your trainer recommendations through March, and made a small profit, mainly due to backing the selections heavier for a place. Certainly not a stunning month for either of them, but some very decent placing performances.
Would be interested in any recommendations you might have for April.
Cheers
Alex