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Trainers to Follow – March 2010

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In a new series of horse racing articles I will be researching the habits and routines of the trainers to attempt to provide some profitable pointers by suggesting we back the runners from particular stables during the coming weeks.

I will be using a combination of past data from such resources as the Racing Post, Adrian Massey and Sporting Life sites coupled with recent form to highlight a short-list of Trainers and/or particular race types that may provide us with a source of winners and hopefully a profit at the end of the month.

In subsequent months I will report back on the results of each previous month and these will be based on placing a theoretical 1 point win bet using the Betfair SP facility.

To kick things off for the month of March, I have selected the following:-

O SHERWOOD

Oliver trains out of Upper Lambourn and although not having the best of seasons so far with only 11 winners from 111 runners he has had a couple of recent runners placed at big odds, and this is the time of year he generally comes into form. His results for this month during the past 3 seasons are as follows:

Overall (including National Hunt Flat races)

Season Wins Runs Win% Return to a £1 level stake (SP)
2006-2007 2 18 11% +5.38
2007-2008 6 26 23% +4.80
2008-2009 5 26 19% +6.03
Total 13 70 18.57% +16.21

Hurdles

Season Wins Runs Win% Return to a £1 level stake (SP)
2006-2007 1 10 10% +11.00
2007-2008 5 15 33% +6.80
2008-2009 1 14 7% -9.67
Total 7 39 17.95% +8.13

Chases

Season Wins Runs Win% Return to a £1 level stake (SP)
2006-2007 1 4 25% -1.63
2007-2008 1 7 14% +2.00
2008-2009 4 10 40% +17.70
Total 6 21 28.57% +18.07

Oliver has a relatively small string of horses and he tends to bring them along steadily. His owners include genuine horse enthusiasts such as Trevor Hemmings, Andrew Cohen and W H Ponsonby, and therefore the welfare of the horses is very important and as a result they tend to run less often and the winners can crop up at bigger prices.

Given both his hurdlers and chasers have been profitable overall for the last 3 year period I propose to back ALL OF HIS HURDLE AND CHASE RUNNERS DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH.

MRS S J SMITH

Sue Smith trains out of West Yorkshire and is married to the well known former show jumping legend Harvey Smith. As with Oliver Sherwood, Sue has had a quiet start to this season with 23 winners from 285 runners, but March has traditionally been the period where the win-rate has performed at its best.

Overall (including National Hunt Flat races)

Season Wins Runs Win% Return to a £1 level stake (SP)
2006-2007 3 41 7% -21.00
2007-2008 13 62 21% +118.35
2008-2009 14 63 22% +44.21
Total 30 166 18.07% +141.56

Hurdles

Season Wins Runs Win% Return to a £1 level stake (SP)
2006-2007 2 20 10% -10.00
2007-2008 2 22 9% -12.90
2008-2009 3 16 19% -1.13
Total 7 58 12.07% -24.03

Chases

Season Wins Runs Win% Return to a £1 level stake (SP)
2006-2007 1 17 6% -7.00
2007-2008 10 35 29% +123.25
2008-2009 10 46 22% +38.83
Total 21 98 21.43% +155.08

Whilst her record with hurdlers is fairly okay the real profits would appear to be with her chasers so I will be backing ALL OF HER RUNNERS IN CHASES DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH. When reviewing the trainer stats I will exclude all runners in National Hunt Flat races as these tend to be used for schooling purposes and the form from these types of races can often be mis-leading.

Finally I would like to draw your attention to a new method that has come to the market in the last week or so, which is also based on extensive research into trainer habits. The 1000 Point A Year System has already got off to a flyer with recent winners at 14/1, 9/1, 4/7 and 7/1, and it seems destined for another profitable year.

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Comments on Trainers to Follow – March 2010 Go on! Have your say!

29/03/2010

spreadeck @ 11:56 am #

Hi Steve,

I’ve followed your trainer recommendations through March, and made a small profit, mainly due to backing the selections heavier for a place. Certainly not a stunning month for either of them, but some very decent placing performances.

Would be interested in any recommendations you might have for April.

Cheers
Alex

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