5 Key Points to Help With Lay Bets……..

A few months back I came across an article that I thought would help everyone in their lay betting. It was written by Jonathon Burgess of False Favourites fame. I have reproduced part of it here.

The following 5 key points will help you to assess races objectively and save valuable time when form reading. The new racing post.com has great functionality to help us be more defined and objective in our assessment.

Please bear in mind the betting forecast is often a good reflection of horse’s chances. Many of the factors we are looking for may have already been taken into consideration by the professional race readers, however their assessment is usually ratings based and often there are speculative factors included in their analysis. It is these factors that we are trying to uncover that will determine a horses true chance of winning.

Five key points to assess races objectively, and save valuable time when form reading.

1: Assess one race code at a time. Flat –Jumps –A.W. are completely different. Although there are generic similarities, specializing in one on any given day causes less confusion.

2: (K.I.S) Keep it simple – Start with one race meeting and look at 6 -12 runner races at first. This means fewer horses to assess.

3: Avoid races that are difficult to assess objectively, such as…

• Low class A.W. races contested by very poor horses (Often these types beat each other every other week making a nonsense of the form book)
• Maiden races full of unraced horses. (These races are based around guess work since no form is available)
• Selling races featuring a bunch of no hopers. Often the form figures will be difficult to interoperate accurately because what’s on offer is very poor.

4: Eliminate the no hopers from a race. Basically get rid of those animals that have a very limited chance, usually those rated well below the first 3or 4 in the betting forecast.

5: Assess the prevailing race conditions and ability of the horses left to handle those conditions, are there any proven performers. Likely you’ll be looking at the first 3 or 4 in the betting forecast in more detail?

• Look at factors such as CLASS, DISTANCE, GOING and FITNESS. These tend to be the most important factors regarding a horse’s winning chances.
• Eliminate any horse that’s not proven under the conditions or going to give your lay selection a run for the money.
• If you’re left with 2 or even 3 horses that appear to be in with a chance then it a case of picking the weakest amongst them.

If you do look at the races objectively as above, look at say, the first 5 in the betting – cross out any that are highlighted from the above and you should have a reasonable lay selection (or two) remaining. So it takes a bit of time, so what! We are trying to make our lay betting pay.

Always remember – If in doubt, leave it out