All Weather Racing

It may not be everyone’s cup of tea but with the current bad weather the UK is experiencing the majority of the racing having taken place since the New Years Day meeting at Cheltenham has been on the artificial surfaces. With no let up in the weather this week it seems an appropriate time to take a closer look at the All Weather action.

There are a number of ways to spot a potential winner on the All Weather, certain courses have draw and pace biases, and also particular trainers consistently perform well each year. Before we expand on these angles we should first understand the type of surface that is used and how it compares to the turf.

LINGFIELD, KEMPTON and WOLVERHMAPTON all use a Polytrack.

Most horses can handle this surface okay. It is a fairly consistent type of surface with STANDARD going being the normal track condition, although extremes of weather can make it ride fast or slow, but the going forecast by the course officials is usually pretty accurate. Polytrack could be compared to good / good-firm going on the turf. Polytrack is basically sand which has been covered around 6 inches deep in a rubbery (polymer) substance, which is designed to minimise the amount of sand being kicked into the horse’s eyes.

SOUTHWELL has a Fibre Sand surface

This has a unique nature and not all horses can act on it. This surface is a deep sand base and can be a testing ground similar to soft/heavy going on the turf. Fibre Sand has more kickback and can make it more difficult to come from off the pace.

DRAW BIAS

LINGFIELD – Middle to low drawn horses have a slight advantage over 5/6f but it is not particularly significant. Over 7f very low draws have statistically been at a slight disadvantage. Over 1m+ there is no draw bias.

WOLVERHAMPTON – Over 5f low draws have traditionally had the advantage and although it may not be as strong as it used to be, you would definitely prefer a low draw over a high one. Over 6f a lower draw has a slight advantage. 7f+ there is no draw bias.

SOUTHWELL – Over 5f on the straight course very high draws tend to be at a disadvantage. This is because they are often forced to rail under the near side where the ground is slower. From 6f upwards there is no draw bias.

PACE ANGLES

At Lingfield it used to be very difficult to win from the front and this lead to some very tactical races, often run at a slow pace with a sprint finish. However, the track was deep harrowed recently and it now appears to favour the handy runners and quite a few front runners have managed to win.

Sprint races at Kempton favour a high drawn front or close up runner, and often provide back to lay opportunities.

The nature of the surface at Southwell favours the handy close up runners as it can be difficult for the hold-up types to make up the ground particularly when the track is riding slow.

At Wolverhampton the course is very tight and circular in nature and quite a few lengths can be forfeited by running wide. Handy types are again favoured as the final straight is less than 2 furlongs so a good position is vital at this stage of the race.

TRAINERS TO TAKE NOTE OF

Epsom based Jim Boyle has started 2010 the same way he ended 2009, sending out three winners since the turn of the year and others running their best races for some time in defeat. He has a 23% strike rate at both Wolverhampton and Southwell, and has made a level stake profit during the last 5 seasons. Handicaps and Sellers bring out his best results and again show a healthy profit.

Alan Bailey is another trainer in great form of late with 2 winners from only 5 runners since Christmas. His strike rate overall on the All Weather is not great but this season he is 7 from 20 in Handicap Races showing a +£19.50 profit to £1.00 level stakes, with Southwell and Wolverhampton runners the best.

Mark Johnston is hitting his usual strike rate through the winter, currently operating at 22%, but many of his runners are over bet and as a result he is showing a level stake loss on the All Weather at present. He is very consistent though, particularly at Southwell and Wolverhampton, still showing an overall profit at both venues during the last 5 seasons despite the recent blip. Many of his runners like to force the pace and can offer back to lay in running opportunities.

David Evans currently tops the prize money list for trainers this winter, but he does send out a large number of runners and is operating at just a 12% strike rate. Money for one of his runners is usually a good guide that it will be trying and Southwell is the most profitable track during the last 5 seasons, and even mores so this year with 6 winners from 23 (26%).

Finally Saeed Bin Suroor who trains the Godolphin horses from his Newmarket base has an amazing 37% strike rate and made over +£85.00 to £1.00 level stakes from only 231 runners during the last 5 seasons, so anything they run on the All Weather is worthy of a closer inspection.

I hope that the above information on the All Weather scene helps you find a few more winners.