Africa Cup of Nations

In tragic circumstances, the Africa Cup of Nations in Angola got underway yesterday. The why’s and wherefore’s of what actually happened last week will carry on until well after the World Cup in South Africa because the implications are just too dreadful to contemplate, with the greatest ever festival of sport about to engulf the African continent for the first time.

Personally, I fully endorse the decision to continue with the Africa  Cup of Nations but fully understand the reasons why Togo felt unable to compete. However, it is right to play the tournament because there is no way we should ever let a bunch of rebels, hooligans, terrorists, criminals, whatever you like to call them, interfere with our way of life and for pursuing our ambitions.

For the last decade, Africa has developed the game of football faster than anywhere else in the world. Their teams are now more organised, more tactically aware, more technically gifted, fitter, better trained and skilful, than they have ever been. The game on the African continent has exploded over the last decade and now all the top teams in the world have scouting operations in Africa and help with the development of youngsters over there.

As for the tournament itself, we see all the usual suspects at the top of the betting charts, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria and Egypt. I certainly expect the winner to come from this group. The Elephants (Ivory Coast) have come unstuck at the last 2 African Cups to Egypt and they will be desperate to put right that anomaly and have been made tournament favourites, at a prohibitive 9/4.

As so often, when it gets to the knock-out stage, the favourites don’t always get it their own way and the Elephants have suffered with this over the last few competitions, so it does make you wonder about their mental strength and at the price they don’t offer the value, albeit that the Drog will be leading their line and surely scoring one or two goals along the way. They also, do have the talent and experience, which is why they are favourites but not value, in my mind.

Second in are the Indomitable Lions (Cameroon) and they have come a long way in the last 6 months and may be peaking at the right time. Last year they were really struggling to qualify for the World Cup but in the summer Paul le Guen took over from Otto Pfister and things started to happen immediately. Le Guen made Eto’o the captain, they then went on a 4 game winning run to take them to the World Cup Finals in South Africa.

At more than twice the price (5/1) of the Ivory Coast, I think that Cameroon are the value and they would get my vote for winners. They are the top rated African team in the FIFA rankings, they have plenty of talent throughout the side, with the brilliant Song in midfield pulling the strings.

Egypt and Ghana are 2 of the other fancied teams but both have massive injury problems with key personnel missing from their ranks. Essien will no doubt lead Ghana with distinction but if they are to get anywhere near winning this it will be down to their youngsters to bring them through and it may be that they just don’t have the experience. They are priced at 6/1 but I feel that is too short and they have too many negatives. Egypt have won the last 2 African Cups but they have missed out on this years’ World Cup when going out to Algeria in the play off. That may play on their minds and with a number of injuries to contend with, I don’t think they will be in the right frame of mind. They are priced at 9/1 and I can probably see them just edging their group but not winning the tournament.

Of the other fancied teams Nigeria are the ones with the undoubted talent but they just don’t seem to be able to put it all together on the field of play. They are not as flambuoyant as the others and play in a rather methodical and boring way, their chances are probably over played and should be bigger than 8/1.

As far as outsiders go, the hosts always do well in this competition, having at least reached the semis on the last 7 occasions, so it would not be a bad suggestion to have an each-way flutter on Angola at 20/1 and in the same group as Angola is Mali, who have some big names in their line up but generally under perform, if they can bring their A-game to the tournament they could spring one or two surprises, again an each-way wager at 28/1 would not be out of the equation.

As for the group winners, I would be looking at:-

Group A  -  Angola

Group B  -  Ivory Coast

Group C  -  Egypt

Group D  -  Cameroon

Let’s hope that the tournament has no more problems and keeps clear of any further violence and that the teams can go about their business, unhindered and free to come and go without fear of gunmen around every corner.