The X-Trader Series – How to Spot Opportunities in the Markets

Although I class myself as serious horse racing player, there is plenty being talked on this site regarding ways into the market on that sport. So I thought, why not give sports fans something to chew on!

I will however get in an early plug for a brand new service I am launching on 30th November (free trial until the new year) called X-Movers. This service is a low-risk horse racing trading advisory service and I have teamed up with a another Betfair pro to deliver a concept that is not available anywhere on the market.

For the past 5 months we have been simplifying the trading process on racing to enable any trader to profit from the markets without risking any more than £20 in the process. If you would like know more details and to sign-up head over to Pro X Trading.

Today; I want to talk to you about how to spot trading opportunities in football, I am not going to suggest you lay the draw and trade out after a goal is scored. There are better of ways of profiting on Betfair if your objective is to obtain a profit after a goal.

The beauty of the in-play markets on Betfair at least one price will be always moving towards 1.01 when the action is producing no goals, it could be 3-3, the draw price is still shortening.

I feel anybody who watches football and trades could easily make steady profits from this simple technique of entering the markets at the right time.

The following screenshot is taken just after the 31st minute mark in the Liverpool v Man City, I had in my notes that the price of the under 1.5 goals would be close to 1.80 if the match remained 0-0 at half-time. (Over 0.60 in price movement)

If we take the 1st half stoppage time out of the equation for a minute, I will explain why later and look at my thought process. I have rough idea in my mind of where the price could be at half-time and with a simple quick calculation and that will give me guide of 0.04 movement each minute of of unders to the break. (0.60/15=0.04)

The second screenshot is taken only 3 minutes later (no goals), but you will notice that under 1.5 goals price has fallen almost 0.30 in that short space of time, in the time it took just £13k (circled) to be matched in the market.

So how do you spot these opportunities?

This is where weight of money (WOM) can play a significant role in your thought process, if you look at the first screenshot and prices highlight green, you’ll notice that there is significantly more money on the highlighted sides than the other sides.

This would be a good indicator to enter the market, of course you still have to pick your entry point and  I assume that you level of understanding means that you would’nt enter the market if a team has an attacking free-kick.

In the 2nd screenshot, you will see the reverse has happened, (marked red) which suggests the market may stall and hit a temporary resistance point, this would be a good time to exit the market.

The Benefits of learning the technique

1. Entering the market at a point in which the price is dropping quickly
2. Because the market is moving in your direction you can exit at any point for a profit.

I quickly want to touch on the 2nd point, if at any time whilst you have money in the market your not comfortable with the game situation just exit the market.

This strategy is about obtaining the biggest movement in the shortest space of time!

The final 2 screenshots where taken when the 4th officials board showed 6 minutes of stoppage time and just after the referee blew for half-time. In most matches its rare to have this much added time and it will always be for a lengthy injury break, when that has happened your normally get a resistance point at the end of the half. Its because of that in this game I elimated the potential time added on from my equation. A good rule would be to add a couple minutes to the amount of time left in half to give you the starting point in working out potential movement.

1.5 Goals when 6 minutes stoppage time was signalled

1.5 Goals Market at the end of the 1st half.

The above trading technique could give you 3 or 4 good trading opportunities during the 90 minutes, the skill is learning the markets and indentifying the right time to open your position.

If you would like a taster of how I identify potential opportunities. I highlight them on my live blogcast each weekend through Pro X Trading Live.

If you would like to know more about my mentoring program and trading alongside side me and 50 other Betfair traders within the X-Club, feel free to drop me a line at ProXTrading.

Chapter 2a – How to spot opportunities in the markets (part ii) (9th December)