Laying Favourites – 7 furlongs!
Seven furlongs is neither a sprint nor a mile – it’s one of those ‘in-between’ distances and not all courses have races of this length. It is a specialised trip, one that you’d think would favour the SP favourite. However, this just isn’t true. What I found during seven years of analysis, was that a lot of horses were either up or down in trip, and it is this that probably gives us the profitable edge.
The system is simple:
Lay the outright favourite in all races run over anything that is described as 7 furlongs (even 7f and 110 yards) that is described in the Racing Post as a Handicap. The price range is Evens to 9/2.
It is as simple as that. Here are the figures:
2002: Ran 305, Won (lost) 237. Strike rate 77% +54.59 pts
2003: Ran 349, Won 268, Strike rate 78% + 44.72 pts
2005: Ran 400, Won 321, Strike rate 80% + 83.98 pts
2006: Ran 500, Won 381, Strike rate 76% + 57.86 pts
2007: Ran 566, Won 442, Strike rate 78% + 86.56 pts
2008: Ran 593, Won 453, Strike rate 76% + 62.24 pts
2009: Ran 273, Won 207, Strike rate 75% + 25.61 pts
64.99 points per year
This can be improved upon by filtering out certain trainers and courses, but I wanted to keep this simple. That said, an easy way to improve the results is to back fillies that are the favourite. Here are the profits up to December 2008 backing fillies only:
2004 / 127.9pts
2005/ 201.8 pts
2006/ 106.4 pts
2007/ 338.8 pts
2008 to Dec 3rd 196.1 pts
Written by on Nov 20th, 2009. Comment. 
Passed with 5/5 Stars!
- All
By The Book Rating:
Passed with 4.5/5 stars!
- Betfair ATM Rating:
- Bonus Bagging Rating:
- Golden Key Method 2 Rating:
- Layers Of Profit Rating:
- The BetPlan Rating:
Go on! Have your say!
Comments on Laying Favourites – 7 furlongs!
StatManLays @ 7:09 pm
I think these are fairly dodgy stats in my opinion. First of all, you do not even consider the betting exchange prices so if you add 15-20% on the losing bet prices plus take into account 5% commission and you probably making a loss year after year.
Yes, singling out fillies do not win as much in fields of males but that’s already factored in the higher price of the odds at the time of the race. Higher prices also mean higher betfair prices.
Harry @ 8:48 pm
why was there such a drastic drop in the number of qualifying races in 2009 compared to the previous years
capenwray @ 5:58 pm
@saRa:
Hi Sara,
OKAY! To recap
LAY in the 7 furlong races and IF the favourite is a filly it has LESS chance of winning and is therefore a definite LAY
saRa @ 8:13 am
Hello,
I’m sorry to ask the same questions already posted here before but after the last comments I became confused.
So we should lay the favourite in 7 furlongs race, got that.
But what about the fillies?! They’re more likely to win or loose this 7 furlongs races? We should back or lay them?
Thanks in advance!
Sara
capenwray @ 9:27 am
@Peter:
Hi Peter, and apologies. I should have written LAY and not back, no wonder it caused confusion!
Peter @ 3:08 pm
@capenwray: capenwray @ 8:43 am
Reply
If you read the article I said, and I quote, “That said, an easy way to improve the results is to back fillies that are the favourite” – hence fillies have a better record at LOSING over 7 furlongs when favourite.
Hello, sorry, I´m confused. Your last statement doesn´t make sense. Please clarify if fillies, in 7 furlong handicaps, should be backed to win or layed to lose?
thanks
Peter
capenwray @ 8:43 am
If you read the article I said, and I quote, “That said, an easy way to improve the results is to back fillies that are the favourite” – hence fillies have a better record at LOSING over 7 furlongs when favourite.
tomascos @ 1:12 am
@capenwray: I am confused.Jordan said,to clarify, back fillies which are favourites instead of laying them. I thought that from
what you said i.e. they are more likely to win.
Marcus @ 12:56 pm
Okej that helped alot many thanks!
So i get i right, in the race tonight at Kempton 7:20 Light Sleeper should be backed rather then layed?
Is this correct?
capenwray @ 8:52 am
@Marcus: Hi Marcus, yes, fillies are female ubnder 5 years old (they then become Mares). The favourite is the actual SP favourite, not that quoted in the Racing Post prior to the race. In other words, it is the horse at the lowest odds at the time the race commences…..
Marcus @ 6:17 pm
Hello.
I wonder what fillies are?
Is that female horses that are younger than 5 years?
And outright favourite is that the horse with lowest odds in Racingpost or is it the horse with highest ratings in Racing Post?
I’am fom Sweden so i have some problems with all new words and terms in horseracing.
Hope someone can help me!
capenwray @ 9:38 pm
@jordan: Hi Jordan. No, if it’s a filly it’s more likely to win. I will be looking at a course and trainer breakdown tomorrow.
jordan @ 9:17 pm
hi i fancy giving this a go, so just to clarify in all 7f races lay the fav unless its a fillie in which case back it depending on trainers record at the course? thanks
Dark Horse @ 4:42 pm
If you want to break it down by course etc or anything else then this site is what most people use to review such stats.
http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/db3/dbaccess.php?flat=-1&p1=ejlub2JvZHl1dQ==&p2=NWw5Wm5vcGFzc3dvcmRd&p3=MTI1ODkwNzg0MQ==
Spreadeck @ 10:58 am
I’ll be giving this a go as well. Thanks.
BrasilNut @ 8:32 pm
Sounds good.
Thanks!
capenwray @ 7:29 pm
Hi Alex,
There are around 11- 12 7 furlong races each week… as i mentioned in the article, the strike rate (and profitability) can be increased by filtering out certain courses, trainers etc. I hope to breakdown the courses in the near future.
BrasilNut @ 7:11 pm
I’ll try it out…
how many 7 furlong races are there on average a day in the UK?