Why Do Favourites Lose?

The majority of races aren’t won by Favourites; on average they win about one race in three. There are just too many random factors to make racing an exact science. You can choose the best horse in a race but a no hoper goes onto win.

The majority of punters are their own worst enemies and bet on the wrong horses in the wrong races most of the time. They just can’t be bothered to spend more than two minutes looking at the form. And unfortunately most think that they can take regular profits from horse racing without even understanding the basics of the sport.

It’s like anything else in life if you want to become successful you need to put some time and effort in initially. Generally most misconceptions stem from misleading advertising by racing system marketers, who tend to promise the world and his dog unrealistic fortunes by following their miracle system.

Don’t get me wrong, systems are good way to profit from racing because they help the user to focus their efforts into certain areas of racing where situations dictate a bet should be made.

However a degree of flexibility is needed at times. This is where knowing more about the sport will give you a big advantage. After all racing has many different elements to it and often specialization is needed.

All systems work on the principle of following a set of predefined rules which should be implemented when certain conditions are met; this all well and good, but in order to implement those rules properly on the correct type of horses in the right races, you really need to know more about the sport.

Ignoring the finer details is often the difference between profit and loss. The two main race codes have quite a few subcategories and age separations. It might sound like stating the obvious but flat racing and jumps racing are totally different, therefore when assessing either code we need too be aware of which methods to employ.

With such a massive amount of racing available for us to bet on in the UK, it is essential we learn to focus our efforts properly. We should only get involved when situations are ripe for a bet. Laying favourites based around a few flimsy facts will lead to consistent losses unfortunately.

Listed Below are some examples, and reasons why favourites lose, but are still bet to win by the punting masses.

They are backing a horse because he has the best form – but do not realize its form cycle has peaked.

All horses have a form cycle which is directly related to fitness, the most recent form always being the most reliable. The horse may have won a couple of races recently because it had conditions to suite or faced inferior opposition. Some horses will run up a sequence of wins, these are generally the better class animals.

However taking all this into consideration the fact still remains that horses peak no matter what the class, and winners are re-assessed by the handicapper each time they race. Their ratings go up which can mean they are eligible to contest better races for more price money.

Next time you spot a few number ones before a horse’s name, look at its race history. Often you will see that the horse needs to improve again to win and may have already peaked. Generally horse only hold peak fitness for 7 to 28 days especially flat racers.

Below are a few helpfull pointers to be aware of…

• Older form is generally not a reliable way of assessing a horse’s current ability. The fitness of any favourite that hasn’t raced for more than 28 days can not be taken for granted. The horse could be worth opposing, unless you have identified that that it has won or performed well after an extended break. Top class National Hunt horses can fit this rest pattern. Often they are being saved for big price money races.
• Seven to fourteen day winners that have conditions to suite, and look to be improving should be avoided for lay betting, especially if they are facing a bunch of exposed out of form rivals.
• If we can spot a young horse such as a 2 year old with a lengthy absence from racing in its current season, then it can signal that the horse has had an injury or suffered some other kind of other training setback and may need a race or two to bring it on.
• At the lower end of the class scale form is inconsistent, even with recent winners and poor quality horses beat each other with regular monotony especially in low class sprints.

SUMMARY – is the horse racing fit and what performance pattern does it appear to conform to.

Confirmed form – The horse has had a few wins and places recently, but might have peaked. Potentially a good lay candidate. Subject to further scrutiny.

Improving form – Could be improving with each race and on an upward form wave. Worth avoiding if getting racing conditions to suite facing exposed rivals.

The horse ran its fastest race ever last time – and it may bounce today.

Any horse that is not allowed adequate rest may bounce due to the exertions of a previous race run at a surging pace. This particularly applies to National hunt horses because the distances they race over are longer and they have to jump obstacles; therefore they take longer to recover from races than flat horses do.

The race is a maiden and punters are backing the hype horse from the top stable without knowing that the pedigree of the horse is not suited to the trip or surface etc.

Pedigree is an important factor when assessing a favourites profile in high class 2-3 year old maiden races, in class 4 and below it has no relevance as average horses beat each other regularly. Learning to recognize when a horse isn’t suited to surface/trip will present us with good opportunity to place a lay bet.

The horse is up in class and facing much stronger opposition than before.

Learning to put the favourite’s current race into class context with its previous wins or places is often the difference between winning and losing. Punters see a couple of ones in the horses current form and conclude that it’s a sure fire winner. What they fail to realize is any horse stepping up in class for the first time is racing against better opposition than previously, and it will have to seriously improve. Often mediocre horses don’t win again until they are found another weak race, or dropped back into a class they are proven in.

The race is too competitive and any number of horses could win.

Some horses are evenly matched on form and ratings; making certain races ideal for laying the favourites in. Lower class All Weather sprints are prime examples.

The course is very testing and only a limited few are suited to conditions of the race.

Favourites only win a small percentage of these races, 95% punters are oblivious to this fact and the statistics are totally stacked against them before they even place a single bet. Looking at what courses your potential selection has done well at will give you an idea of its suitability to the current race.

The number and variation of Britain’s courses means that some horses will show better form at certain tracks. Basically, the more idiosyncratic tracks are more likely to produce course specialists. So multiple course winners are often found at , BATH , BRIGHTON and CHESTER for example.

Here’s to your success.

Kind regards Jonathan Burgess