I have mentioned in a few of the recent articles about the need to treat the current horse race form and performances with a pinch of salt. As we have seen, so many of the meetings have been lost to dismal weather conditions, and those that have gone ahead have featured the going description “heavy” in many of them.
When the going goes this way the form book really struggles to make sense of many of the results, as most of the more recent past runs will have occurred under different circumstances. Horses that have shown a preference for slow and softer conditions suddenly show much improved form and can be very difficult to find.
I have been keeping my stakes to the bear minimum and will continue to do so until the conditions improve. With this in mind I thought I would use the time to re-visit a couple of methods that specialise in trying to find those elusive really big priced winners, or in the case of the second method high priced place horses.
First of all I had a look at the performance of a method that arrived in a blaze of glory after last years Cheltenham Festival. Smoke and Mirrors uses the live market to make its selections and has a combination of triggers which I have found a little confusing when things can change quite quickly in the minutes and seconds before the off. I decided to stick to one of it’s method’s which is simple to use and in the past has highlighted some really nice priced winners.
Between Monday 1st Feb and up to the end of yesterday’s racing (Thursday 4th Feb) 25 horses were found using this one selection method, and amazingly amongst these were the following:
2nd33/1 Adam de Beaulieu
Won 25/1 Hucking Hero
2nd14/1 Jazrawy
Won 20/1 Gaily Noble
2nd 9/2 Alfred The ordinary
Won 20/1 Viking Blond
Won 33/1 Roaming West
3rd 16/1 Mister Teddy
2nd 25/1 The Cuckoo
3rd16/1 Muktasb
2nd14/1 Sir Sandicliffe
Simply placing a £10 level stake to win at starting prices on all of the selections would have produced a staggering profit of £760.00, but forgive me for mentioning it once more, but on bigger priced fancies we really should be using the Betfair SP, if we had, the profits would have grown to £1311.16 which is 75.52% more. More on Big Priced Winners….How do we find them???
Written by on Feb 5th, 2010. Comment. 
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A lot to get through today. As well as our usual Friday Footy tips, I will be explaining a method I use regularly to get odds that are 4x bigger than what you get for the win market, we will be looking at a master system from that football master Frank Belanger and I will also be giving you 5 more sites where you can pick up lucrative football tips that are absolutely free!!
We will start in a football market that I play regularly but is underused generally and that is the HT/FT market. Here you have to predict the result at half time and at full time to collect. However, whereas you may get 6/4 for predicting the outright winner of a game, by playing in the HT/FT market for the same game you would get 6/1, that is a massive 4x the odds you get for playing in the winner only market.
When I go through the list of games for the weekend, I am looking for games where both sides are evenly matched by odds, so they are both in the 13/10-7/4 range. You will find about 10 of these games on a weekend. You can play on all 10 or just use 5 of them. So for the first part of the bet, I am going to say it will be a draw at half time, they are evenly matched so the chances of this are good. Now for the second part of the bet, you have to predict the final outcome. This part is easy because I am going to predict a Home Win, 45 % of all games in England are won by the home team. So my overall prediction is Draw/Home Win. For this type of match you would get odds in the region of 5/1-6/1.
Let’s examine the maths behind this. For these type of games, predicting a Draw at half time pays around even money. We know that 45% of games are won by the home team, so this would just be a shade of odds against, putting these together you should be getting around 3/1 or just over but in fact you are getting 5/1-6/1, it is a no-brainer. If you play on 5 matches you just need 1 of them to win to make big profits. Simples!!!
People have different betting styles and for those of you who need more than just a couple of football bets a week there is a service which was brought out in the middle of last year by Frank Belanger, that delivers as many football bets per week as you can handle. They come from leagues all over the world. Yes they are short prices but yes the strike rate is over 64% and it generates over 150 points pure profit each year.
Soccer Betting Masters deals in different footbal markets from more than 150 leagues throughout the world. You are never short of a betting opportunity. The selections are delivered to your inbox each day and with there being so many you are able to choose which ones to follow and which ones to leave. This is something you should be interested in and you can get more details here.
In the Research section of the Football site I have put another 5 websites where you can bona-fide football tips absolutely buckshee free. You will find them at the bottom of the page.
Finally for today, I come to the Friday Footy Tips. Today we are going to be looking at the Championship. More on Want to Become a Soccer Betting Master?
Written by on Feb 5th, 2010. 1 Comment.
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A few months back I came across an article that I thought would help everyone in their lay betting. It was written by Jonathon Burgess of False Favourites fame. I have reproduced part of it here.
The following 5 key points will help you to assess races objectively and save valuable time when form reading. The new racing post.com has great functionality to help us be more defined and objective in our assessment.
Please bear in mind the betting forecast is often a good reflection of horse’s chances. Many of the factors we are looking for may have already been taken into consideration by the professional race readers, however their assessment is usually ratings based and often there are speculative factors included in their analysis. It is these factors that we are trying to uncover that will determine a horses true chance of winning.
Five key points to assess races objectively, and save valuable time when form reading.
1: Assess one race code at a time. Flat –Jumps –A.W. are completely different. Although there are generic similarities, specializing in one on any given day causes less confusion.
2: (K.I.S) Keep it simple – Start with one race meeting and look at 6 -12 runner races at first. This means fewer horses to assess.
3: Avoid races that are difficult to assess objectively, such as…
- Low class A.W. races contested by very poor horses (Often these types beat each other every other week making a nonsense of the form book)
- Maiden races full of unraced horses. (These races are based around guess work since no form is available)
- Selling races featuring a bunch of no hopers. Often the form figures will be difficult to interoperate accurately because what’s on offer is very poor.
4: Eliminate the no hopers from a race. Basically get rid of those animals that have a very limited chance, usually those rated well below the first 3or 4 in the betting forecast.
5: Assess the prevailing race conditions and ability of the horses left to handle those conditions, are there any proven performers. Likely you’ll be looking at the first 3 or 4 in the betting forecast in more detail?
- Look at factors such as CLASS, DISTANCE, GOING and FITNESS. These tend to be the most important factors regarding a horse’s winning chances.
- Eliminate any horse that’s not proven under the conditions or going to give your lay selection a run for the money.
- If you’re left with 2 or even 3 horses that appear to be in with a chance then it a case of picking the weakest amongst them.
If you do look at the races objectively as above, look at say, the first 5 in the betting – cross out any that are highlighted from the above and you should have a reasonable lay selection (or two) remaining. So it takes a bit of time, so what! We are trying to make our lay betting pay.
Always remember – If in doubt, leave it out
Written by on Feb 5th, 2010. Comment.
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