Nov 30th, 2009 Archives


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I am delighted to be joining the LayTheOdds site as the author in charge of the Betfair Trading section.

In this first article I thought I would briefly introduce myself and tell you what you can expect from this online column over the coming months.

We are developing an online trading community here at LaytheOdds, and I will not only be generating new ideas but developing and enhancing the work of my colleagues.

And there have been excellent starts already, with insights by Kevin into some interesting football trading software called BOSSBetting on Soccer Strategy” and an intriguing horse racing “Laying 7 furlongs” by Mark Layton. Mark: I cannot wait to try it out!

It seems the advantage of these systems is that you simply turn up, follow the rules and then pocket the dosh!

But if you are constantly striving to improve your own performance, as all aspiring professional (or even amateur) traders should, then I am sure you will have considered trading software and been tempted by other adverts suggesting that you will get rich very quickly if you just part with £100 or similar. It all sounds very tempting and I am sure that there a few that have been tempted only to be a disappointed by the results. After all, what is £100 compared with unimaginable riches?

Well, the answer is quite a lot if the unimaginable riches turn into a negative on your balance sheet! More on Classic Matches, Software and Psychology: An Introduction from David Lauder

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Passed with 5/5 Stars!

Passed with 4.5/5 stars!

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One of my main gripes about the, otherwise very creditable, BOSS software, is that there is no coherent Bank or Staking strategy that can be used in conjunction with it. That is why I have designed one simple and easy to maintain strategy that will enhance the betting experience you get from the BOSS.

Bank Size

Most importantly the bank size is limited to the amount you can afford to lose. Why does it always say that, when you start talking about bank size? Because it is true. The cold facts are that approximately 97% of bettors lose money over a long period of time, meaning the possibility of their bank going bust is all too evident.

I always relate my bank size to the odds I am betting at. The reason I do this is because the odds you are betting at will determine the potential losing run you may have. For instance, if you back race horses at 16/1 you could be waiting a long time for a winner and if you had a bank of only 20 points you would probably be bust before finding one. On the other hand if you were backing even money shots your losing runs would be so much shorter and the requirement of a large bank not so great.

ProbabilityFor me the even money shot is very relevant to the size of bank required for the BOSS system. Without going into the “theory of probabilities” the simplest way to describe it is when you toss a coin. The odds are fixed, you have a 50/50 chance that it will come down heads. Obviously, this is an even money shot, but how does this help us estimate the required bank size? Well what you need to know is the likeliest longest losing run at the odds of evens and it is from that where you can work out the bank size.

If you tossed the coin 550 times the probabilities are that it would land on heads 9 consecutive times at least once during that sequence, More on Bank & Staking Plan for BOSS

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Passed with 5/5 Stars!

Passed with 4.5/5 stars!