November 2009 Archives


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Value BettingWhen identifying value bets and trades, there’s one thing I’m consistently reminded of — to find the most profitable betting opportunities, it very often pays to be looking beyond the obvious.

Take horse racing, for example…

Your typical losing punter will usually look through a bog-standard race card before deciding which horse to back. Most likely, he’ll then come to a semi-informed decision based on the trainer, jockey and horse’s recent form. While this might be a reasonable starting point, the problem with this approach is that everyone has access to the same information. Finding a winning edge becomes virtually impossible.

To become a successful bettor, it helps to think like a shrewd detective . Ask yourself, ‘what is it that others haven’t spotted, which will guide me to the value bets?’

We can easily improve on a basic race card analysis by taking things a step or two further. For instance, we could take the time to look at the classes of a horse’s previous races.

If the horse has been running well, is it now running in a higher class for the first time? If so, we might have found a good horse to lay — that would require further inspection on the odds, distance, going, draw, quality of other horses (after all, it’s probably not worth laying a horse who doesn’t have much competition for the win) and so forth.

On the flip side, if the horse has been placing in a higher class, is it now dropping to a lower class once again? If so, we might have found a good horse to back — again, it would require further ‘detective work‘.

Regularly, I find horses at long odds with seemingly suspect form and then find the horse is dropping down in class. Sometimes, these horses lead to nothing, but I often follow this approach to find value bets at long odds.

You could take this even further by looking at different, more-unique angles. For instance, perhaps there’s an unfancied horse at long odds and you discover he tends to run well only at left-handed courses… this attention to detail is what can give you edge you need to profit.

The possibilities of angles you can explore are endless. Because of this, I generally recommend that punters SPECIALISE on just a few types of betting approaches that suit them best.

To illustrate my point, here are a couple of real-life examples…

1. One successful punter I’m in contact with specialises in the performance of different trainer/jockey combinations. He typically backs trainer/jockey combinations who often win and lays those who rarely win. Of course, his approach is slightly more complex, but it does pay off for him.

2. Another friend I know has a season ticket to watch Woking Football Club and is particularly knowledgeable about lower league football. Seeing as boomakers don’t spend much time analysing the lower leagues, Greg often finds value bets and, during most months, this betting niche of his earns some nice spending money.

What follows is worth remembering…

To stay competetive, bookmakers HAVE to offer odds on all worthwhile sporting events. As punters, one of our biggest advantages is that we can CHOOSE which sporting events we bet on… and specialising in you’re own betting niche is a great way to maximise that benefit.

And that’s all from me for today. Stay tuned next week and the weeks that follow… I have some great content lined-up for you.

Tipping Services Testing

I’m about to start testing various tipping services to see how well they perform over a period of time and then I’ll report the results back to you on a regular basis.

Initially, I’m going to test the most popular services, which you will decide, so if you’d like a service tested, please add a comment at the bottom of this blog post and I’ll start testing the various services you require over a period of time.

Have a good one,

- Josh.

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What’s more important to winning from betting the selection or the price obtained?

In my day to day work at the Betting School I get to talk to a lot of people who are trying to profit from their betting.

A common situation is one where two people have differeing opinions about the same system.

One will be losing a little or breaking even and another will be making good money and be happy with the system.

How can this be?

The answer is that it’s all about the price that you obtain.

If you concentrate on getting the best price possible on all your bets then you are almost guaranteed success.

Betting SchoolI would go so far as to say that anybody skilled at getting good prices could pick their selections at random and still make a profit over the long term.

You will have heard it said many times that bookmakers dont go broke because they always have built in value and except for the odd exception where bad management gets in the way it’s true.

If you could always bet at 10% better than the Betfair SP you would be profitable!

How to do that is a bigger question, for now you can improve your betting no end by working on the prices that you take.

What’s your view on this? Are you able to obtain higher prices regulary, or do you struggle. Drop me a comment to let me know your experience…
—-

Darren Power is the Editor of the Betting School Insiders Report visit Betting-School.com for free samples and to register for the Betting School Free weekly newsletter

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Welcome to the X-Trader Series a bi-monthly Betfair Trading column that hopefully will provide you an insight into the mind of full-time professional.

My name is Matt Finnigan and I have been successfully trading Betfair full-time since 2002, hopefully I can teach you the key ingredients, based on my experience, research and testing, that go into successfully making money from the betting exchanges

There are two core categories of ideas – Strategies and Tactics.

Strategies are in place to educate your mind about why things happen. Strategy helps you understand outcomes and helps predict future outcomes as a result of particular actions.

X TraderTactics are steps you take – actions – to achieve outcomes. Most of your tactics are processes and techniques you implement through your trading development and will ultimately lead to you wither making a profit or not.

It’s my goal to provide you with a blueprint for successful trading in an easy-to-follow guide that will build up over time. Not for one minute do I think I have all the answers, I firmly believe that my knowledge is just scratching the surface of what can be achieved on Betfair

I hope this column will stimulate your thought process to develop your own trading technique. Unfortunately; there is no quick route to making money on the exchanges, trust me on that score, I’ve walked this path already

None of this is rocket science; it’s a simple guide explaining what I have done and learnt on my journey as a professional trader, laid out for you to follow.

I will start with the very basics of Betfair and if you have good understanding of using the exchange, then the chances I won’t be teaching you too much in the begining. The first part of series is what I class as ‘Pillar Advice’ timeless advice that if you’re new to trading today or years time, it will still be relevant.

It’s my goal with this Betfair Trading Series is to open the eyes and expand the mind of every would-be sports trader who has ever wanted to make money from trading. Prepare to be shocked, disappointed and, finally, energized with a new workable attitude that will lead you to trading profits.

Here’s to your trading success.

Matt Finnigan

Next: Wednesday 11th November – The Concept of  Trading.

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