About My Latest Betfair Trading Video – Adam Todd

A few weeks ago I made my latest video called “Betfair Trading Using Advanced Coin Flipping and Guesswork Techniques” – thanks to everyone who watched it and sent me comments and questions about it.

A few people asked how it was possible to make money by guessing the direction because they couldn’t see how you could get any kind of value or edge by doing that. The point of the video isn’t really to show how you can make money by guessing the direction, but rather it is demonstrating that how you pick the direction of the price isn’t nearly as important as what people think it is.

A lot of people think that profitable trading is all about being skilled at picking the right direction of the price but the video showed that it’s more about making sure you win more when you’re right than you lose when you’re wrong. I hope it came across clearly in the video that I don’t have a clue about horse racing and don’t even look at the horse’s name on which I’m trading, never mind study any form, or base my trading decisions on what I think is going to happen in the race.

A price can only do one of two things: it can go up or it can go down. Now if you don’t try anything to increase your chances of picking the right direction then you’re going to be right 50% of the time. And if you can cut your losses and run your profits then you can effectively get a better than evens payout on an even chance. If you could get a 2 to 1 payout on a heads or tails chance you would take it all day long without worrying about trying increase your ratio of winners to losers because the payout is taking care of it. It’s the same with trading the pre race prices on the horses, you can torment yourself trying to work out what the hell those crazy prices are going to do next or instead you can concentrate on making your payouts more than your losses.

I called the video the coin flipping video as a joke but I think that many people’s trading results would improve if they actually did flip a coin before they started trading and then stuck with trading that direction until the race started. If it’s heads then keep laying the price, getting out with scratches or small losses if it goes down and running with it if it goes up. If it’s tails then keep backing the price, getting out with scratches or small losses if it goes up and running with it if it goes down.

The trick with this approach is to pick the points at which you get in, for instance, don’t just lay the price and sit back, if you are laying and the price is going down then hang back until it looks like it could turn and then jump in with your lay bet. By completely removing the direction picking part of the trading, which is where most people mess up because they keep changing their mind and making a 50% chance more complicated than it should be, you can concentrate on the good principles of trading like cutting your losses and running your profits. Flipping a coin can be useful because it stops you swapping direction which can cause you to get it wrong whichever way it goes.

Stop thinking of trading as some complex, advanced way of using Betfair that is beyond you, it’s actually a lot easier than anything else. You’re dealing with 50% chances with no built in reason why you should lose. So stop guessing which horse is going to win the race and instead start guessing which way it’s price is going to go before the race!

For more help on trading or to ask me any questions visit www.racingtraders.com